Stephen Law

Here are two sets of beliefs. Read each and decide which is set of beliefs is more likely to be true.   Belief set one   Mary lives in London Jill travelled in a sports car. Jill had a sun tan. Jill gave someone a case of wine.   Belief set two   Mary, who lives in London, inherited a sports car, but didn't have a driving license at that time, so she lent it to her good friend Jill, who used it to drive down to the South of France for a week long vacation on which she developed an impressive sun tan. On her return, Jill gave Mary a case of good French wine she bought while there to show her appreciation.   The first belief set involves just four disconnected claims. The second set includes those claims but weaves them together into a narrative that is coherent and makes sense. The story makes meaningful connections between the four claims.   Many people will intuitively find the second set of beliefs much more plausible than ...