The Nomination Is In: The Pegasus World Cup G1 at Gulfstream Park

White Abarrio:  Ryan Thompson photo credit

Hello Friends and welcome to The Turk Blog, where I handicap and develop exacta bets, primarily over grass, but extensively over all surfaces.  Next year is my 40th year as a handicapper, which is mind boggling to me as I still see myself as that young kid trying to understand how the races worked at Saratoga in the summer of 1986.  As far as the blog goes, while I'm not an esteemed turf writer, I have been blogging continuously since 2008, so I am beginning my 18th year. Timing is everything in life, and when this blog started, Twitter was just a new thing, and long form blogs were very popular.  Within a few years, the best bloggers in this sport mostly stopped writing about individual races because they weren't being read anymore. All anyone wanted was the picks, tweeted out.  I never started this or any of my online endeavors to be the most popular, or the most monetized.  I'm not sure if that makes me noble, and my cause true, or if my ambition was just low.  No matter, I enjoy what I do and I appreciate the good people at The Thorofan, especially Laurie, who allow me the opportunity to submit late and ramble incessantly.  

If timing is everything, post position must not matter?  Oh but it does.  Analyzing post position statistics for 1 1/8-mile dirt races at Gulfstream Park reveals a significant advantage for horses starting from inside posts. According to data from US Racing, in a sample of 34 two-turn dirt routes, 32 winners broke from posts 1 through 7, accounting for approximately 94% of the victories. In contrast, horses starting from posts 8 and beyond secured only 2 wins from 38 starts, representing a win percentage of about 5%.  I looked at a larger sample size as well, 5 years, and the percentages were about the same: 94%-6%.  Part of that is field size, but the key takeaway is  that it's hard to win from the outside as the configuration of the track, with its relatively short run to the first turn, often places outside starters at a disadvantage, as they must expend additional effort to secure favorable positions early in the race.  The one that comes to mind is Forte winning the Florida Derby from Post 11.  Gun Runner in this race won from the 10 spot but the vast majority in this small sample size were from 6 in.  

The Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, inaugurated in 2017, is a premier thoroughbred horse race  at Gulfstream Park. The gaudiness of the prize packages quickly made the Pegasus World Cup a marquee event, attracting top talent to compete for one of the largest purses in the sport, currently $3.0 MM.   With that type of money, drawing elite horses, jockeys, and trainers from around the globe is possible.

The inaugural running saw Arrogate, trained by Bob Baffert, deliver a commanding performance to claim victory. In subsequent years, the race featured iconic horses like Gun Runner, City of Light, and Knicks Go, whose wins showcased their exceptional abilities.  The race’s timing in late January strategically positions it early in the year's racing calendar, offering participants a chance to begin their campaigns on a grand stage in North America where previously Dubai was the best early season option.  

I generally start with current form, which I use video for, but this group comes in off of all sorts of races, with only 13 starts total by this group since 3 November, Breeders' Cup Weekend.  Watch how Gun Runner handled the outside post, note that very short run to the first turn.  

It is cool but the weather should be dry.  I'm handicapping like it will be fast dirt.  You can find scratches and changes here.

The Pegasus World Cup Invitational G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt for 4 YO and Up

What has Locked or any of the horses beyond the 7 post done to make you think they can pull off the win against the statistical odds against that post at this distance?  

Inside of Locked with  early speed(as measured by Timeform US Pace:  Mixto, Saudi Crown, Newgrange, White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking.  That's a lot of horses for the son of Gun Runner to run past quickly and establish a rail position.  This is a six start horse that has never raced at Gulfstream, never raced at the distance, was a Show finish chalk at Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  I started this analysis working backwards, what you are hearing me say is I don't have alot of faith in Locked, and don't see a reason to stretch on an overbet lightly raced, outside post.  We are gamblers, the odds say move away.

So what and where should we look?  I think a better gamble is on White Abarrio running at a track he's won 6 of 8 starts on, bouncing back under Trainer Joseph. Training well, training sharp, the 6 YO is in a great spot to get on the rail and be fresh at the end.  The pick.  

Saudi Crown should be the first turn leader.  one win in three races at this distance, first time GP, 8 of 12 lifetime exacta finishes.  Covering win and Place with him.  

Crupi to me is in right spot and has one of the best stretch kicks. 7/14 Exactas on Fast Dirt, 5 of 11 exactas at the distance., the son of Curlin at 5 YO isn't jaw dropping, but 14 of 19 lieftime in the money and could add real value to the exacta.  

Skippylongstocking is a pretty good exotic candidate if you are going deeper in the bets.  Stronghhold ships in with Trainer D'Amato and the 4 YO is talented and could surprise.  Same with Mixto, Trainer O'Neill with Dettori up, is a talented 5 YO that is winless in 3 tries at the distance, no exactas at the distance, No GP, but capable of big wins like his 22-1 Pacific Classic in August 2024.  

Mystik Dan, 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, seems oddly placed in this race but I understand taking a swing at the prize.  Sprint to Route for McPeek only 14% on 64 tries. Training sharp at GP and hopefully he can build off of this but I'm skeptical.  The filly, Power Squeeze, also feels oddly placed and got a terrible post draw at 12. 

I'm keeping the bet pretty simple:

4-2 OVER 4-2-5-1-6-10, a $2 Bet for $20.  My aggressive bet is 4 OVER 2-5-1-6-10 for $10.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!  

The Nomination Is In: The G1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar

Stay Hot wins The La Jolla: Benoit Photo

Hello friends and Welcome to The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and develop exacta bet constructions. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me an opportunity to write for you today.  I've changed jobs over the past year, and I had to put handicapping on the back burner for most of this year.  Every few years my output on the blog diminishes, but my love of horse racing remains, and I suspect 2025 will be a record year for my blog in terms of output.  

My new job involved recently a trip to Australia and Hong Kong.  In both locations I met more race fans than I typically meet in the States.  I also got to lay my eyes on the track at Hong Kong which has always fascinated me.     

For years I've handicapped Churchill Down's day after Thanksgiving card, but turf runners with a future at Del Mar fits more with what I'm trying to accomplish anyways.  After today, I'll shut it down for my writing until the day after Christmas timeframe and the start of the Santa Anita season.  I love the ebb and flow of the horse racing calendar, I hope it can survive these times in Southern California.

Today's blog featured race,  the Hollywood Derby G1 is a prestigious Grade I turf race for 3 YO thoroughbreds. Its long history, competitive field, and scenic venue make it a significant highlight of the fall racing season and often provides a launching pad for the 3 YOs not ready to jump to the breeding shed (aka- my favorite kind of 3 YOs). 

Originally inaugurated in 1938 at the now-defunct Hollywood Park in Inglewood, California, the race was relocated to Del Mar Racetrack in 2014 following Hollywood Park's closure. Despite the change in venue, the Hollywood Derby has retained its historic importance and has continued to attract top-tier competitors from across the nation, although as I've ranted many times before, I think they should retire these races and rename them when the original tracks close.   In my opinion, the1 1/8-mile (9 furlongs) distance on turf is ideal for showcasing the tactical speed and endurance of young thoroughbreds.  Many of these horses in their 3 YO seasons have either raced lightly on Turf or the Conditioners are still trying to match the horse to the conditions book.  That can create interesting improvements in a horses form  and results.  

Del Mar Racetrack, famous for its slogan “Where the Turf Meets the Surf,” provides a stunning backdrop for the Hollywood Derby.  Past winners of the Hollywood Derby include iconic names such as Citation, the 1948 Triple Crown champion, and Snow Chief, who achieved fame in the 1980s. The list of victors is a testament to the race's competitive quality and its influence on the sport. In recent years, notable winners of the Hollywood Derby include Mo Forza (2019), who became a standout on the turf circuit, and Domestic Spending (2020), a Chad Brown-trained colt who went on to win multiple G1 races, solidifying his status as one of the best turf horses in North America. 

Handicapping turf races is more nuanced than dirt horse racing, requiring a keen understanding of the distinct characteristics of turf tracks, the horses, and the specific conditions that influence performance and demands a strategy that differs significantly from dirt and while others disagree, I have success viewing and approaching it like synthetic surface races. 

 Understanding Turf Tracks Turf surfaces tend to be softer than dirt tracks, offering less traction and more give. This impacts the way horses run, favoring those with a smooth, efficient stride over those with a choppier, more powerful action. Horses with turf-specific pedigrees often excel, as certain bloodlines are known for producing runners suited to the demands of grass racing. Additionally, turf tracks are highly sensitive to weather conditions. Rain can soften the ground, turning it into yielding or soft turf, while extended dry spells can result in firm conditions.  For today, we will just assume firm turf and Del Mar and Santa Anita, non rainy season, have been known for fast firm turf for decades.   A quick look at the weather forecast validates this assumption.  

Handicappers must pay close attention to the track condition reported on race day, as some horses excel on firm ground while others perform better on softer surfaces. I find this is best by looking at the track's recent race results as well as track conditions and changes section of the website.  These tracks have varying degrees of useful websites.  Del Mar's is one of the best websites.   

I don't do this often, but a little Turf Racing 101 for you:

Pedigree: Evaluating a horse’s pedigree is crucial for turf handicapping. Horses bred from sires and dams with a proven record on turf are more likely to succeed. Look for horses with European bloodlines, as they are often bred specifically for turf racing, where it is more prevalent.

Running Style: Turf races often favor horses with a late-closing or stalking running style. This is because turf races typically unfold at a more measured pace than dirt races, with a strong emphasis on finishing speed. Horses with a powerful turn of foot in the final furlongs tend to have an edge, especially in route distances. I look at every horse early and late Timeform US Pace figs to get a feel for early and late speed and how tactical a horse has run at the distance.  I link this to Pace Analysis: Understanding the pace scenario is critical in turf races. A slow early pace can favor horses near the lead, while a fast pace might set up perfectly for a closer. Handicappers should analyze the pace setup to predict which horses might benefit most. 

Jockeys and Trainers: Certain jockeys and trainers specialize in turf racing and have developed strategies suited to its intricacies. For example, top turf jockeys excel at timing their moves perfectly in the stretch. Researching a trainer’s turf win percentage and a jockey's familiarity with the surface can provide a valuable edge. For example, Fresu/Eurton 23% winners on 43 starts, Rispoli/McCarthy 25% winners on 53 starts standout to me for volume as well as quality, but don't discount Berrios/Shirreffs 25% on 12 starts or Dettori/Thomas 26% on 23 starts but all tracks, first at Del Mar.   Its a tool.  

Form and Experience: Horses that have previously performed well on turf, especially under similar conditions, are worth noting. Pay attention to recent races and the competition faced. Horses transitioning from dirt to turf for the first time may struggle unless their pedigree or training suggests aptitude for the surface. The concept of Class is important:  Look at Career Earnings;  Look at the quality of Races the horse has run in.  

Turf racing often features larger fields, which can make picking a winner more challenging but also lead to higher payouts. The unpredictability of weather and the variability of turf conditions require constant vigilance. However, for handicappers who invest the time to analyze these factors, turf races offer exciting opportunities to profit. I love a niche part of a niche sport, what can I say!

I'll leave you with two pieces of advice that have served me very well on the handicapping and then bet construction side of the coin:

1.  Ignore outside bias:  Don't read about the race before you handicap and don't look at the morning lines.  I print my Formulator PPs without the Morning Line and only look at it when I'm blogging to insert into my chart.   All those bias, including the talking heads on the TV broadcasts, will influence your thinking.  

2. Do pay attention to the Tote Board: What other bettors think matters way more than anything else.  Identify over and under lays and bet accordingly for value.  No one will respect your chalky exacta win because its a recipe to lose money over the long haul.  Be brave, go deep in your handicap for that late turn of foot.  Remember long shots much more likely to take Place than the Win.  

Anyways, enough rambling, lets get after it!

The Hollywood (please) Derby G1:  1 1/8 miles on presumably hard turf for 3 YOs. 

Just a few videos to review:

26 October 2024; Twilight Derby G2:  1 1/8 Miles firm Turf, Santa Anita.

1 September 2024; Del Mar Derby G2; 1 1/8 Miles firm Turf

4 August 2024; The La Jolla Handicap (5 horse field); 1 1/6 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar

5 October 2024; The Jockey Club Derby Invitational G3; 1 3/8 Miles firm Turf; Aqueduct.  

31 October 2024;  The Let it Ride Stakes $100K;  1 Mile Firm Turf; Del Mar

I think my base handicap indicates pretty clearly the lack of a true consensus chalk and the depth of this field is impressive. I generally avoid 3 YO turf races is the lack of a true sample size of efforts at this age on this surface, but if you like unpredictable and the chance of big payouts, a 13 horse field where at least two of my tosses could win, is pretty good.  

I'm looking at some sort of exacta;  

Let's play it out.  A box of all my potential Win-Place-Show-Exotic (8 of the 13 horses) is a $56 dollar bet.  The likelihood of making a return is mid to low.

I think this is more like how I'll approach:

Stay Hot/Carson's Run/Formidable Man covered in both spots and the others in the Place position, a $1 Dollar Bet for $21.  

I feel like I'm being too safe with this so if I want to be higher value/higher risk:

Stay Hot/Carson's Run/Atitlan in both spots with Formidable Man, Twirling Point and Cathal in Place, a $1 Bet for $15.   This is my bet.

Have fun my friends, Happy Thanksgiving!

Turk Out 

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Downs Turf Cup G2

Kentucky Downs from above

 Welcome to The Turk Blog, started in 2008 and now with over 725 postings.  The Turk Blog specializes in turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I appreciate The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner, for allowing me an opportunity to share my writing with you today.  

As a fan of turf racing, and with the death of Arlington International, Kentucky Downs became my favorite track and boutique meet of the year.  I wish I could say I was good at either handicapping the races there, or building better constructions, but that is part of the charm at Kentucky Downs, the races are hard to predict, its difficult to know which horses will take to the quirky track, and the sample sizes of horses running on the track itself are very small.  

What is it about Kentucky Downs? It is a unique racetrack located in Franklin, Kentucky, near the Tennessee border. Known for its European-style turf course, the track stands out in the American horse racing landscape due to its undulating, irregularly shaped layout, which differs from the traditional oval tracks seen across the United States. Founded in 1990, Kentucky Downs is built on the historic site of the old Dueling Grounds, adding a layer of history to its modern-day horse racing activities.

The track hosts some of the richest turf races in North America, despite offering a short annual meet. Its premier event and the focus of today, The Kentucky Turf Cup G2, attracts top-quality horses and trainers.  Kentucky Downs has gained a reputation for offering large purses like this race $2.0 MM, largely due to its successful historical horse racing (HHR) machines, which operate year-round. These gaming machines have boosted the track's revenue, allowing it to increase race day payouts and enhance its appeal to the racing community.

Kentucky Downs emphasis on both historic tradition and modern gaming has helped the venue carve out a special niche in the racing industry.

So what were the The Dueling Grounds of Kentucky? Located near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, the dueling grounds hold a unique place in American history. Known as the "Spanish Main," this area served as a notorious site for duels in the 19th century. Due to the strict laws against dueling, this location, just outside state jurisdiction, became a favored spot for those seeking to resolve personal disputes through "honorable combat."

The Dueling Grounds gained infamy for high-profile duels, particularly during the early 1800s, including the fatal duel in 1826 between U.S. Congressman John Randolph and Henry Clay, a prominent American statesman and future presidential candidate. Though the duel ended without bloodshed, it underscored the site’s role in shaping political and personal conflicts of the time. Duels,  dangerous and deadly, were also a socially accepted method for defending one’s honor in certain circles. By the mid-19th century, dueling fell out of favor, and the Dueling Grounds eventually faded into history.

In 2014, National Geographic found evidence of spent casings and lead bullet fragments, confirming the exact location of the duels. To this day, Kentucky is the only state requiring office holders to swear to uphold that they have never dueled or challenged anyone to a duel.  

Enough Turk, get on with it! 

The weather should be dry and the track firm.  The track website is pretty barebones but you can find scratches and changes and track surface info here.  

$2.0 MM Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Grade 2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Just a few relevant videos, but at 1 1/2 miles, don't put too much into these.  

 4 August 2024 EIP; Turf Cup Preview $299K; 1 1/4 Miles firm turf.  Highway Robber/1; King Curlin/6; Anglophile/9

11 August 2024 CNL; Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Integration/2; Sugoi/5

20 July 2024 MTH; United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on Firm Turf.  Get Smokin/4; Tawny Port/7; Grand Sonata/10

So what should you do with all this?  First, check for scratches and changes.  There were none when I wrote this on Thursday evening.  Next, hold your bets and watch that tote board leading up to post time.  Finally, have fun.  It's Kentucky Downs, anything can happen.  If I choose to bet I will look at an exacta with Integration/2 above Get Smokin/4, Tawny Point/7, Anglophile/9, Sugoi/5 and Highway Robber/1, a $10 Bet and alternatively, I'd drop Integration and $2 box 4-7-9-5-1 for $40.  Both are pricey and big gambles but the handle will be big and its worth stretching.  

Have fun,  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes at Colonial Downs

 

Arlington Park in its full glory

I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me an opportunity to handicap and share my thoughts with you today.  You can find my handicapping and exacta bet construction at The Turk Blog.  I am The Turk and I've been a horse racing fan and handicapper for nearly 40 years and I started blogging in 2007.  

The Beverly D. Stakes has been a prestigious American horse race for Fillies and Mares, run right before The Arlington Million. Named in honor of Beverly Duchossois, the wife of Chicago businessman and horse racing enthusiast Richard Duchossois, the race has a rich history intertwined with the development of Arlington Park and its premier international turf racetrack.  While The Turk believes these famous race names should be retired and new traditions born, no one in power really cares what this two bit handicapper thinks.  Similarly, no one at CDI or the Illinois Racing Commission really care either that greed and shortsighted policy making destroyed this track, decimating the purses and putting it on the path to closure and then demolition.  Shame on these people that allowed a premier facility to be wiped off the map.  

The Beverly D. Stakes was inaugurated in 1987 as part of Richard Duchossois’s broader efforts to rejuvenate Arlington Park, which had suffered a devastating fire in 1985. The rebuilding of the park was an ambitious project, and the introduction of the Beverly D. Stakes was intended to elevate Arlington Park’s status in the international racing community. The race was designed as a companion event to the Arlington Million, a race that had already established itself as one of the premier turf races in the United States.  The Turk has told the story several times on my blog, but I was at the track the night of the fire.  I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center and answered the call to help with efforts at the scene.  That night left a lasting impression on me.  I was invested in the redevelopment of Arlington Park and later in life, my family and I took vacations to Chicago for Million Day at the track.  

From the outset, the Beverly D. Stakes was established to be a Grade I race, a status it lost beginning with this year's event. The race is run over a route of grass and historically attracted many international competitors, often using the race as a kickoff to Breeders' Cup campaigns. Run over a distance of 1 3/16 miles, The Beverly D. Stakes is open to fillies and mares aged three years and older.  With the demise of Arlington Park, the race bounced to Churchill Downs, but has been spun off to Colonial Downs, where the event anchors the biggest day of the racing calendar year and hopefully regains some of its luster as time goes by.  Because of the pending heavy rains from the tropical storm, the card shifted to Sunday and the turf course is being protected as best as possible in advance of the event.

And make no mistake about it, Arlington Million Day was a premier day on the calendar and network coverage always gave it a large audience. The sport has done so much damage to itself, but this is a sport that excels at finding new bottoms.   What the flawed human stewards of the sport cannot take away is the past and the glory of races like this.  One of the most memorable early winners was Flawlessly, who triumphed in 1992 after a long objection/inquiry delay. Trained by the legendary Charlie Whittingham, Flawlessly was a model of consistency and excellence on the turf, and her victory in the Beverly D. Stakes solidified her place as one of the leading turf mares of her era.

 

The Beverly D. Stakes has also been a stage for international success. Horses from Europe and other regions have frequently competed, often with great success. The 2013 victory by Dank, a British mare trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is one such example. Dank’s powerful late surge in the race not only earned her the Beverly D. Stakes title but also contributed to her being named the American Champion Female Turf Horse that year.

 

 My personal favorite is 2010, and Mr. Duchossois finally winning the race with Eclair de Lune (Ger), and as he wipes tears away from the winners circle, states that winning this race was more important to him than the Kentucky Derby.  Take that CDI.

 

 While I'm glad to see the race is run for $500,000, you have to understand it was $750,000 for many years at Arlington, dropping to $400,000 when it was at Churchill.  With inflation, these races are not the draws they were to the international racing community that they once were.  That's partially why we get a six horse Beverly D. field, a six horse Arlington Million field.  Losing its Grade 1 status doesn't help either.  

The Turk truly hopes a turf festival of speed and excitement takes hold at Colonial Downs, but I'm skeptical, not of these wonderful animals, or the connections, but of the short sightedness of the industry in general.   While I'd said I'd rather see these proud and legendary events retired and new events and history formed, I'm glad a horseman and true ambassador of the sport, Mr. Duchossois can be remembered, as well as the enduring memory of his beloved, Beverly.  

Enough rambling, lets get after it!

The weather will be wet on Friday but should improve Saturday and Sunday.  For now we will assume something nearing Good to Firm but if the rains pick up Sunday Good to Yielding.  Like many tracks, the website does not cater very much to horseplayers, so you'll find scratches/Changes and updated track conditions on a redirect to Bloodhorse via this link. 

Let's look at just three videos.

The Beverly D Preview $125K : 1 1/16 mile on soft turf 13 July 2024.  A five horse field, of which Nadette (Fr) embarrassed the rest of the field with her paid workout.  

The Diana G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf at SAR;  I really liked the close on Moira and not much to like about Ontario Bred Mission of Joy or PA Bred Neecie Marie. 

The New York G1:  1 3/16 Miles on Firm Turf at SAR 7 June.  Neecie Marie deserves another look for her bravery navigating traffic and giving Didia a run late.  Neecie Marie, gets Dettori up.  by the way, did you notice young Frankie in the '93 race won by Flawlessly?  Amazing career.  

Fev Rover (Ire) did little here, came back and cut back to 1 mile at Woodbine for her next outing.  The six year old is a year removed from winning the Grade 1 version of this race and the Grade 1 EP Taylor at Woodbine. $1.3 MM winner on $6,700 purchase, not too bad. 

What to do with all this?

In full disclosure,  I think I will play the Pick 3 All Graded Stakes that begins at 5:20 ET with the Grade 3 Secretariat, an 8 horse field of 3 YOs that I suspect will pop value, followed by The Beverly D. and the Arlington Million.  I think I will single The Beverly D.  with Moira in that play. I will be posting to my blog Saturday with the Pick 3 and individual race handicaps.

 

 If I'm playing this race, I want Moira to be beat.  I think Moira, followed by Fev Rover (Ire) will be a heavily bet 1-2.  In my hunt for value, I put Mission of Joy and Neecie Marie in the top spot and Mission of Joy, Neccie Marie, Moria and Fev Rover in the Place position.  This Bet 3-5 OVER 3-5-4-6, a $2 exacta for $12.  

I can't say I love it, but if I want some skin in the game, that's my bet.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!  

The Nomination Is In: The Robert G. Dick Memorial at Delaware Casino

 

War Like Goddess: Photo by NYRA

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on turf handicapping and exacta bet construction.  

The Turk feels 1,000 pounds lighter.  I'm currently transitioning in my work career into a new company and new position.  At 58, the Turk needed a change of pace.  "Growth must be chosen again and again, fear must be overcome again and again" said Maslow, who theorized a hierarchy of needs that all humans must have to be fulfilled.   I was in a safe comfortable place and the trade off was a lack of growth and self actualization.  I get the opportunity to meet and talk with many young people entering the work force or with less than 10 years of work experience and I always tell them never to be afraid of change because if you apply yourself, show up and be engaged and accountable, you will always have work.  I took my own advice.  I thank my former employer of over 33 years.  I step into the unknown prepared, engaged and ready to continue my growth.  

Let's get after this!

Today's focus the is Robert G. Dick Memorial G3, named in honor of the Delaware Racing Commission longtime chairman.  The weather should be incredible, albeit hot.  You'll find track conditions and scratches and changes here.  

I won't spend too much time on Video today but I thought this first video was a good lesson in turf handicapping beyond 10 furlongs.

25 May 2024 CD; The Keertana $234K; 1 1/2 Miles on firm turf

Early speed isn't something I really care about.  One of the first things I do is analyze late turn of foot utilizing the Timeform US Pace figs.  You can read about how to use that data here.  I generally set a value and measure the horses relative to that value.  In this case I set par at 110.  Of this par figure, Atomic Blonde (Ger) is 19 points above it and the best in the field, followed by War Like Goddess at +10, and in the rear of the field Alpha Bella at -21 (the early pace leader btw) and Vergara at -17.  It's one value, and it can be misleading, but we put it into the mental handicapping data calculator and weight it slightly higher.  

The Robert G. Dick Memorial G3; 1 3/8 Miles on Turf.  F&M 3 YO and Up

The Turk likes to adjust the Morning Lines back to add up to 100%.  First of all, I don't use the Morning Lines to handicap and I actually don't look at them until my handicap is done and I'm building this chart.  Track handicappers are busy and many of them are just rushing through their work.  The tote board and odds at Post Time are much better BUT I don't have a time machine to compare to those.  Finally, with track takeout now approaching 30%, it just skews the values.  I adjust the morning line back to 100% just using simple proportions so I can more readily compare to my Fair Line and then I look for blatant over and underlays.  Nothing really pops off the paper to me except I value Alpha Bella (easily the early speed and worst late runner) higher than the track handicapper.  At Marathon distance in January, she wired the field with decent fractions and really nice late speed of :47.1 and :23.3.  It's not outside the realm of possible and we are in the business of developing bet constructions that can actually return positive ROI over a long time and you need dart throws now and then to do that.  

From class perspective, head and shoulders above all is $2.6 MM winner War Like Goddess, purchased for $30,000 in 2019.  Mott brings the 7 year old in 2nd off a long layoff, which he wins 12% of the time, and she's racing at 118, her lowest carry since 2022.  I generally sleep on weights, but you have most of my other contenders carrying 6 additional pounds.  Hard to ignore.

Atomic Blonde (Ger) has failed to win any of the four previous tries at this distance but is 9 of 20 in the exacta over turf.  1 win in last nine tries is a big red flag but I really like her driving outside win in the race I showed above.  I think she'll attract a lot of attention at windows.  

I have a trio of horses I could throw a blanket over:  Alpha Bella is a 4 YO Justify who seems a bit slow overall.  She's still young in this game and her time might not be now, but she's 7 of 10 in the money over grass for Trainer Pletcher.  Chop Chop is 4 of 5 in turf race exactas and is one race in the money away from becoming a millionaire.  The 4 YO has decent early and late speed, tactical.  Cox puts Prat up, and they are 30% winners with 129 races.  Vergara is saddled by Trainer Motion, who leads all other trainers lifetime in this race with 9 wins (35% winner).  Ruiz is up.

La Mehana (Fr) is Clement's other runner in the race, with J. Ortiz up.  5 wins in 13 turf starts.  Let's take a look at her close at the end of the Sheepshead Bay G3 in early May. 

While not a big field, that was a hell of a race and La Mehana could have easily won and looked great. It's a good example of needing to marry the past performance (3rd place by a head with a 4w upper, closed well comment) to the video.   

I tossed three at my risk with the most talented being Freydis the Red (Fr).  I'm not sure I like her at distances this great but she has been versatile in distance, racing from 8 to 12 furlongs for Trainer McPeek. 

What to do with this?  I'm doing what I said I'd do, I'm not picking the handicap but constructing a bet that has the most value if it hits.  Yes, I won't win as many, but when I do, good times!  

La Mehana(Fr)/1 OVER War Like Goddess/9, Atomic Blonde/5, Chop Chop/7 and Alpha Bella/6, a $2 dollar Exacta for $8.  Vergara would make it $10.  

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster G1 at Churchill Downs

 

    Welcome Friends to The Turk blog, where The Turk has been writing and ruminating about horse racing since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  

    The Turk isn't much of a Triple Crown handicapper.  Truth be told, I'm primarily an older horse, running over a route of grass, type of fella.  I like data.  I like the data that a large field of turf veterans provides me.  That said, I've really refined my dirt thinking to ignoring the early part of the year and concentrating on July-early November, the run up to the Breeders' Cup.  The Stephen Foster  is generally the first dirt race I handicap in a year and this year is no exception.  Before we go too far, who was Stephen Foster, what is his enduring impact on our culture, and what makes the Stephen Foster an important race prospectively? 

    Stephen Foster (1826-1864) was an American songwriter known as the "father of American music." He composed over 200 songs, many of which remain popular, including "Oh! Susanna," "Camptown Races," "My Old Kentucky Home," "Old Folks at Home" (also known as "Swanee River"), and "Beautiful Dreamer." Foster's music became deeply ingrained in American culture, often reflecting themes of the antebellum South.  

    It's highly doubtful from the Turk's perspective that anyone under 40, and few above 40, would still consider Foster the father of American music, but at 58 I can say his songs were some of the first I learned to play and sing along to in school.  

    Foster's work has had a lasting impact on American music and culture. His songs have been performed and recorded by countless artists over the years, keeping his melodies and lyrics alive. However, his legacy is complex and controversial. Many of his songs reflect the racial attitudes and stereotypes of his time, which are now considered offensive (feel free to read the original lyrics to "My old Kentucky Home and you'll understand").  His work is an important part of American musical heritage, but it also serves as a reminder of the nation's complicated history with race and representation. 

    Some, not The Turk,  have done a re-examination of his work and its place in contemporary culture. The Turk believes you should consider historical figures contextually, based on the norms of their era, not against our evolution as a culture, which has righteously moved forward in race relations and attitudes.   Anyways, it's OK to understand Stephen Foster's impact on music, it's also important to understand some of his lyrics were racist, it was a more racist society then, and thank God we don't have racist lyrics anymore, just now someone get rid of Coldplay.  I digress.

    The Stephen Foster is a prestigious Grade I thoroughbred horse race held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Surprisingly, it was only inaugurated in 1982 and named in honor of the beforementioned Stephen Foster and his "My Old Kentucky Home"  which associated with the Kentucky Derby.  If you want to have a beef with Stephen Foster's song, ask why it took 4 years after the race was started before the original lyrics were changed.  

Here are some key points about the history of The Stephen Foster:

   - The race was first run on June 26, 1982, and quickly became a significant event in the American horse racing calendar.

   - Initially, the race was classified as a Grade III event but was upgraded to Grade II status in 1988 and eventually to Grade I status in 2002, reflecting its increasing prestige and the quality of the competing horses.

   - The Stephen Foster is run over a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the dirt track at Churchill Downs (except last year)

   - It is open to horses aged four years and older and typically attracts top older horses from across the United States (relatively speaking!) 

   - Over the years, the race has been won by several notable horses. Some of the most famous winners include Black Tie Affair (1991), Awesome Again (1998), Victory Gallop (1999), and Curlin (2008), who have also made their mark in other major races. 

OK, enough Turk ramblings, let's get it on!  Let's look at some key videos.

17 May 2024; The Pimlico Special G3; 1 3/16 miles on Fast Dirt at PIM. Pyrenees/1, Kingsbarn/7 went for the exacta.  

3 May 2024; The Alysheba Stakes G2; 1 1/16 miles over sloppy dirt; First Mission/2, Steal Sunshine/8, the Winner and an also ran.  

1 June 2024; The Blame Stakes G3; 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at CD.  Dreamlike/5 for Show.  Blinkers on today.  

20 April 2024; The Ben Ali Stakes G3; 1 3/16 over fast dirt; Kingsbarn/7, Happy American/3.  beaten Place for heavy chalk and also ran.

20 April 2024; The Oaklawn Handicap G2; 1 1/8 over Fast Dirt; Skipylongstocking/9 dominant chalk performance.  

What a field!  Its so rare that I say that these days but it is a very impressive group collected together.  

I could make a case for any of First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Disarm or Kingsbarn to win.  In doing so, I just discounted 4 straight winner Pyrenees who I think is tactically too slow, and mildly Dreamlike, who goes with Blinkers on for Pletcher today (18% Blinkers winner 65 starts).  I only discount Dreamlike because of consistency but I think is very worth a look at fair odds north of 9-1. 

I've rambled so long I'm going to actually keep the handicap very brief.  Looking at the weather, expect a fast track.  You can find track conditions and scratches and changes here.  

First Mission should win this race.  7 of 8 lifetime exacta, 6 of 7 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 exacta at the distance, back to back dominant wins and on Cox home turf  where he's training very sharp.  I will put him no higher than Place because I want value.  I like Disarm or Dreamlike in a deep stretch run to take the wire with both Skippylongstocking and First Mission covered in Place

As you can see, this is more of a betting strategy than just going with my base handicap.  If you are new to reading me, my chart is what I call the Base Handicap.  It's what should happen.  "Should" is boring and doesn't cover your losses over time.  My fair odds chart identified Disarm as running past his morning line.  I like the late speed and my gamble is a return to form.  

Have fun friends!

Turk out 

The Nomination Is In: The Mint Julep at Churchill Downs and Recapping Shoemaker Mile

Delahaye-Barbara D. Livingston

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in handicapping older horses running over routes of grass, and I typically formulate exact bets around them. 

 Last week I talked about the struggles I've had this year with my work, and how it was affecting my handicapping. I've taken some time over the last few weeks to really concentrate on rediscovering a balance in my work-life balance. It will never be 50-50, that's just not how I approach my profession, but I've learned I can only sustain 90-10 for so long, and for me I've been clipping along at that rate for seven months, dating back to November 2023. I realized if I didn't take steps to clear my head and take balance back (the job won't give, only takes) I would burnout and be broken. Handicapping is a part of the balance. It doesn't seem like much, but hours go into one of these blog posts. I watch video, I update my databases, I pour over paste performances and race charts. A gambler can't do this, it's too much time. A track handicapper can't do this, it takes too much time. It gives me an edge, but low volume. Regardless, the mental escape it gives me is worth every second and takes nothing away from work. 

There was a time when I was wildly high volume, banging out whole cards at a time.  I respect that, but it wasn't for me.  I like to engage on one isolated segment of the sport, in this case, Turf racing older horses, primarily routes, because it allows a few things I enjoy:  larger fields, less focus than dirt which allows greater overlay potential, and just as important, identifying underlays, and then finally, really good older horses I can spend several years following.  I still think one of the greatest problems in our sport is the premature retirement to the breeding shed, denying casual fans a chance to get excited about known quantities.   I generally leave the "state of horse racing" stuff to people much more knowledgeable than me, but that's the Turk's two cents.  

So recapping, I'm placing an effort on handicapping each weekend a turf route that interests me.  Lets get after today's focus, the grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs.  The weather should be dry and warm.  Pay attention to track conditions and scratches and changes here. 

The Mint Julep G3; 1 1/16 Mile Firm Turf; Santa Anita  

   

The Turk never looks at Morning Lines as a tool for handicapping when I'm blogging.  I only look at the morning line after the handicap is complete and I'm building my fair odds assessment.  I had the top three exactly as Daily Race Form did.  Always pay attention to the tote board to get a feel for where the action is headed as post time approaches.  Remember, handicapping and bet construction are two very different things.  I'm not interested in building an exacta with a 2-1 over a 9-2 and neither should you.  Winning battles and losing wars is where that approach will get you.  When I first starting writing my blog, I struggled with the perception that if I wasn't "right" in my handicap, I'd lose credibility.  No, nailing $3 dollar will pays is not something to aspire for.  I'd rather lose six out of 10 races to make those four wins meaningful.  It doesn't often work out like that, but you get the idea.  I don't encourage normal fans to bet beyond what they are prepared to lose. The game is stacked against you.  The morning line odds added up to 129%.  I've routinely seen them up to 135%.  That's the track take, parimutuel at work, getting bigger and bigger as the handle slips and overhead and inflation rising.  Adjusting back to fair line odds is your best chance to identify those gems.  Sadly, I don't think I did here today.

So what to do with all of this?  The best two horses in my opinion are early speed, Delahaye and Heavenly Sunday.  Chad Brown's (23% turf winner, 20% graded stakes) Delahaye is 3 for 3 at the distance, 4 of 5 Turf races has hit the exacta.  Adding a 1/16 of a mile.  $550,000 price tag at Auction, by far the class of the race.  Expect this 2-1 to be bet down, maybe even to 6-5.  In this case I want that.  I have to make a choice:  Who is the best late speed?  my identified choices are:  Excellent Question (Walsh saddles I. Ortiz-21% at CD) but isn't very classy; Fuente Ovejuna (GB) with Walsh/Dettori Up, 1 win in 9 starts at this distance; Henrietta Topham, 6 YO, modest connections but training sharp, first race back since October 2023; Immensitude (Fr) with conditioner Bill Mott, and Prat up, goes in second start of career in North America.  Remember, all of these options have fur on them, if they didn't they would be overvalued as well.

I'm going to put Immensitude/6 OVER Heavenly Sunday/8 and Excellent Question/5.  Delahaye will get added to the ticket depending on the tote board.

This is a $2 bet for either $4 or $6.  

Finally, last week's handicap (I didn't bet) was the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita.  I needed to get my handicapping chops working again. 

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 27May 2024 Santa Anita Park; 1 mile Firm Turf