Post Race Analysis for Raceday May 9, 2009: The Peter Pan Stakes and Mervyn Leroy Handicap

Race 9 BEL: The Peter Pan Stakes Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YOs



I did some quick math before the race and didn't think the exatca bet was worth chasing, so no money was wagered. One of the things I do well as a horseplayer is knowing when a bet just isn't worth wagering. The result of this race were pretty much what the betting public thought it would be; The chalk took Win money and the second most wagered horse Placed. The exacta paid $17.00, but I would have spent at least $10 to work in some longer odd combinations, so my non-bet was a good bet.

Charitable Man ran a very professional race as the video shows. Of all the starters, Charitable Man showed the most promise for a start in the Belmont Stakes.



Race 8 HOL: The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and up.



You can be right and wrong in the same handicap. I felt strongly that Rail Trip would fall short. I did not like the way he faded in the Santana Mile and I was expecting a similar trip. It happened. I expected Dakota Phone to stay near Rail Trip but not have the gumption to pass him. It happened. I expected Aggie Engineer and Ball Four to set a blistering pace and then Ball Four showing age to drop to the back and Aggie Engineer to hold off any challengers. It happened, sorta.

I was curious what Trainer Biancone was thinking with Ball Four. Regardless of what you think of his past transgressions, the man prepared Ball Four well and nailed a nice Grade II win in the process. Aggie Engineer? He's only four, he'll have time to try again.

I placed $4 only in bets, following my handicap exactly. I had a 6-4-1 Tri and a 6-4 Exacta. They were low priced, reasoned and wrong. Handicapping can be like that.

The Nomination is In: May 9, 2009; The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II at Hollywood Park

I'm not a big fan of six horse fields. The problem is sometimes horses that I really like race in small fields. Now I could just watch and not bet. That was my preconception before getting out the PPs for this race. I suspected that Dakota Phone would give Rail Trip another hard run and could win, especially with the extra distance and the 4 YOs propensity to close hard, but I thought Rail Trip, the heavy duty chalk, would win. Zzzzzzzzzz. Then I got interested. Aggie Engineer, a horse off my radar, a 4 YO with six career starts, no graded stakes, and the owner of a 6f bullet on May 1st and a 100 BSF at 1 Mile in early April caught my eye. To the sharp eyed or those with a magnifying lens, those two horses dueling at the wire are Rail Trip and a nose back Dakota Phone.

Race 8 HOL: The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 mile on fake dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm still not sold on the merits of betting this race. I'll be watching the tote closely and the key for me will be the odds that Aggie Engineer attracts and how much money chases Ball Four and Dakota Phone as well. Ball Four laid a clunker in early January and has been freshened since then. The 8 YO has the experience to come off the bench and be sharp, but I question his legs. I am curious what Trainer Biancone might coax from this proud animal, I hope its all good. The fine looking Jockey/Horse combo is A. Solis up on 2008 Mervyn Leroy Handicap winner Surf Cat.Oh yeah, A. Solis is up on Aggie Engineer.