Post Race Analysis for Race Day November 21, 2009: The Kennedy Road at Woodbine

Ahh, the lovely Dita joins me tonight to celebrate a fine handicap in today's Grade III Kennedy Road 6f sprint at Woodbine. Ms. Von Teese, a fine handicapper in her own right, understands as I, the difference between celebrating success that results from hard work and disciplined horseplaying and bragging. The Turk never brags, as he knows how humbling the horse game can be. I thank Mrs. Turk as always for her tolerance of these celebratory smokes, she's a damn fine woman in her own right. Alrighty, lets go!

After spending a few minutes contemplating The Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct, I just had a 1-800-Hammer feeling about betting on a race I thought Gone Astray couldn't possibly lose. The disciplined bettor in me said no and I entered the Kennedy Road with extra money in my weekend betting budget. What to do with it, hmmmm?

As I said pre-race, I was going to bet a series of Exacta Bets with Smokey Fire on top and then a few straight superfectas. As I checked the tote board minutes before post I salivated as I saw Smokey Fire about where I thought he would be but Field Commission only the 4th favorite with bettors.

Putting Smokey Fire ontop of my pre race handicap I thought was a real gamble (funny, we are gambling after all). My base handicap is my "reordering" of the Morning Line. It is not, as it is often mistakenly thought of, as my betting strategy. It is my morning line and it often lines up, especially the top and bottom picks, with the track handicappers official morning line. This handicap wasn't even close yet it seemed so obvious to me that Trainer Attard was slipping Smokey Fire into a slot he thought he could do well. The Turk talks about consistency and discipline quite a bit. I talk about it because I believe in it, I believe that if you build a base handicap, believe in the base handicap, and then work that handicap with bets that make sense from a risk/reward perspective, over the long haul you will do well. When my handicap doesn't line up with the track handicap I trust in my handicap, as hard as that can be.

All that said, I was truly shocked that Field Commission wasn't higher with the bettors and I thought both El Brujo and Jungle Wave and Bouge Chitto were all good choices but no where near as good as Field Commission, and in my opinion, not currently in the form of Smokey Fire.

I placed $10 on my base handicap exacta of Smokey Fire and Field Commission, straight up. I also had $2 win on Smokey Fire and I bet five $2 Triactors with Smokey Fire and Field Commission on top, straight up, on all of them and then five of the field filling in the Show place. I mentioned Signature Red in my pre race cap as well, but his inclusion was a hunch.

Race 8 Woodbine: The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 Furlongs on Poly for 3 YOs and UP.



That's alot of money to win with a risk of $22 dollars. The game we play is cruel and sometimes ironic. You build a base handicap and sometimes your A+ horse finishes dead last. As a hero of mine said, shake the dirt off your sandals when you have a bad handicap and just keep going.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 21, 2009; The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 furlongs at Woodbine

Handsome Field Commission, campaigning in the Red and Gold Silks of owners E. Teltzer and owner/trainer D. Vella, is the morning line second choice in today's Grade III Kennedy Road at Woodbine, a 3/4 of a mile affair on fake dirt. It's a nice 10 horse field with quality and while Field Commission has at least a 30% chance of winning, the Turk is thinking upset for the win spot and Superfecta win is what I'm aiming for. Let's Go!

Race 8 Woodbine; Post Time 4:23 ET; The Kennedy Road Grade III; 6 Furlongs on All Weather Poly for 3 YOs and Up.



There has already been some changes. You Don't Pass was scratched by the stewards dropping the field to nine but not changing the starting gate because he was last horse anyhow, and the talented Ms. Sutherland takes over the mount of the #3 Horse, Signature Red.

With a field of nine, I believe the bettors will spread their money around on a few horses, at least four, making the post time favorite most likely no better then 3-1 or 7-2. There should be a chance at a big exacta/tri and super payout.

I'm going to take a bit of a gamble on my base handicap and back Smokey Fire to win. Fairly unaccomplished and one of three horses for Trainer Attard here in this race, coming off a 97 BSF at 6f about one month ago and two blistering 4f works with the last :46 4/5ths.

Field Commission enters off a 101 BSF win in a Grade II turf win and returns to fake dirt after three staright turf outings, including Place in the Woodbine Mile. Also working fast with a 4f :47 4/5ths this past week. 11 of 14 in the money on fake dirt, 11 of 14 at WO and 6 of 8 at the distance.

Jungle Wave is the morning line favorite by a nose and has the credentials. Like Field Commission, he returns to fake dirt after four turf starts and his last WO fake dirt effort at 6.5 furlongs produced a 103 BSF. 4 Wins in 7 starts in 2009 and 4 of 4 in the money on fake dirt for the gelded 4 YO son of Hold That Tiger.

El Brujo and Bogue Chitto will compete for spots in the top four. El Brujo comes in off two Grade III wins on poly tracks and the 3 YO gelded son of Candy Ride has been working steady :48 4 f. 11 of 13 in the money on fake stuff. Bouge Chitto is an ALW force at Woodbine but hasn't done well stepping up in class. A nice 5f in :59 2/5ths signals good form and last 6f outing at WO produced a 98 BSF and N2X win.

Signature Red may run well.

I'm leaning towards some exacta bets with my longshot Smokey Fire on top. After that, no more then 10 dollars or so worth of straight super bets and we'll swing for the fences.

Have Fun, Turk Out!