Our friend taking a nap off to the left is none other than Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion and the 2011 winner of the Timely Writer Stakes, Uncle Mo. I never blame the horse, but I do question in hindsight the humans that surround the horse. I also found myself shaking my head, but not surprised, with the USA Today this week, in particular an article written by Tom Pedulla. In the article published on Monday May 2nd it was represented that Uncle Mo had a "textbook" workout (Trainer Pletcher's words) and that he was good to go in the Derby, with owner Mike Repole stating that Uncle Mo looked like a different horse than the one that left Belmont Park two weeks earlier.
The Turk is not a trained journalist nor do I pretend to be, but I find it odd that this article was nothing more than a regurgitation of what Trainer Pletcher and Owner Repole had to say. It seems to me that Mr. Pedulla, the 2009 Maryland Jockey Club David F. Woods Award winner, should have got the opinions of a few other observers with perhaps a bit less bias, assuming he had the inches and newsprint available to him from his editors, and if he didn't, again, I am not attacking Mr. Pedulla whom I respect.
Mike Welsh, from his duties as the clocker writing updates for the Daily Racing Form described the workout as well, taking time to note how Stay Thirsty was able to hang well with his far more talented stablemate. It seems Mr. Welsh took the glass is half full approach and attributed Stay Thirsty's work as improving versus my opinion that Uncle Mo was not "textbook".
Mr. Welsh didn't so much contradict Trainer Pletcher's comments but did provide more color. I'm more disappointed that what passes for an article in a national newspaper in the biggest week of the horse racing season was nothing more than an opportunity for Trainer Pletcher to perpetuate the feeling that nothing was wrong with his charge. Just a few days later, another Daily Racing Form article showed a picture that showed Uncle Mo working with a very high action. It seemed apparent that this horse was not ready.
I'd love to understand what the plan was for Uncle Mo as a three year old. The way he was prepared you would think he was made out of glass. We are led to believe that one hundred and thirty seven years of lessons could be thrown away and you could baby your equine into being a classic distance winner.
When will owners and trainers understand that they have the biggest obligation of all to regrowing the sport back to prominence. If the horse is healthy, it must be campaigned. A trainer studies the conditions book and plots a course through the year, planning out the fitness cycle to peak at the time and place of a key race. Owners have an obligation to campaign their horses, travel them as needed, and grow the sport through fan interest. The owner and trainer have much more of an ability to improve the state of the sport than an organization like the NTRA. The horses will generate the buzz and people will come. I would have gotten on a plane to see Uncle Mo in a race at Gulfstream this winter, but not the Timely Writer. How huge would it have been for Uncle Mo to challenge the field at the Arkansas Derby instead of trying a softer spot at the Wood only to get his hay handed to him?
I just don't think all the rich folk at the top of the sport get their obligations. I also don't get why you'd place a horse with a trainer who is more of an managing director than he is a hands on horse flesh conditioner. If Uncle Mo was in a barn that had 15 horses, do you think the trainer would have pussyfooted around? Mr. Pletcher knows horses, of this I have no doubt at all, but with that many high profile horses a man can only spread himself so thin.
The Turk likes to handicap and he's a race fan first and foremost. I get upset when I sense I lack of leadership and I really don't like to read bullshit like I read in the USA Today this week. You prep the horse to shake him down and part of greatness is being sturdy enough to handle the stress and strain of the preparation. You can't just open the doors for a party without doing any planning, unless your party is a crackhouse I reckon. OK, enough rambling.
Churchill Downs Race 9-10-11, the Pick Three including the Grade II Churchill Downs, Grade I Turf Classic and Grade I Kentucky Derby
I was spittin' mad with myself when I went back to my marked up PP's for the Oaks to see I had Pretty Plum a 1st to 4th and an "A". I talked myself out of placing her as high in the final analysis. I would have never put St. John's River so high but the stretch was dead and speed came to die, perhaps an indication that the track wasn't exactly fast. In hindsight St. John's River had a great late kick.
I'll let my spreadsheet speak for itself right now. The horses in blue are my considerations for the pick three. I'll be playing the races vertically and horizontally as well and the card was excellent and has me really jazzed for the first time in awhile.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
The Turk, along with his son, the Little Turk, provide handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it. Established September 2008.
Showing posts with label Archarcharch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Archarcharch. Show all posts
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Thursday, May 5, 2011
The Nomination Is In: May 6 and 7, 2011: The Kentucky Oaks- Kentucky Derby Double
Well it's finally here! We horse fans start watching 2 year olds like mystics reading tea leaves or chicken bones and graduation day always comes the first weekend in May.
The Turk has done a fair share of handicapping and gambling over the years. At the end of the day, I'm a horse racing fan and having days like this with multiple graded stakes and graded stakes caliber horses puts the fire back in my soul.
I got grumpy the past few weeks. I hated the way Uncle Mo was handled as a three year old and everywhere I looked I saw horses that looked like fine Grade II 9 furlong horses but so few classic distance runners. I let go some of my bitterness when I printed the Oaks day past performances and felt that feeling again.
The unexpected benefit of handicapping the Oaks-Derby Double is that I have no choice but get down to seriously looking at the Derby closely: It's one thing to vote on potential like I did with the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll, but its quite a different thing to take into account track conditions, current form, post position etc.
Let's get it on!
A nice thirteen horse card greets us with a a gaping hole missing since R Heat Lightning dropped out of contention. Coupled with the faltering of Uncle Mo, we have an opportunity to have a good will pay on this double bet and that my friends is why we play this game, the opportunities that present themselves.
After some internal debate I settled on five possible victors who'd I'd love to cover, but my very light chalk is Kathmanblu: 8 of 9 lifetime in the money, 5 wins, a Grade 2 and 3 win, and a solid CD 1 1/16 win on fast dirt. The McPeek runner with Leparoux up, expect an of the pace win in the deep stretch.
Daisy Devine might not win a class battle but she's a tough girl working well and coming in off a Grade 2 dirt win at 1 1/16 miles. The McKeever/ Graham combo wins 27% of the time together and placing her here for me represents some value, as we are afterall, gambling!
Joyful Victory looms large and I would expect her to be the bettors chalk: Her last two wins, a grade 3 and grade 2 she's won by almost 16 lengths combined for the Turk's favorite dirt trainer, Larry Jones. She'll be flying off the pace late as well.
Zazu is interesting to me: Losing my a neck to Turbulent Descent in the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks after beating Turbulent Descent two back. Nice speed figs from SA this winter and this fillie is ultra consistent.
And finally Summer Soiree is a recently transferred from Larry Jones to Graham Motion, with Saez up, and enters off a grade 3 win by 10 lengths. This War Front girl looks pretty serious and will look to strike the front and not give it up.
I guess we need to discuss the track condition I am assuming is fast. Make sure you check in on scratches and changes, the weather and track conditions before you finalize your choices.
For the Derby I considered dropping Uncle Mo completely off, as fear of a Life at Ten sequel is something i don't think Team Mo want any part of. I don't plan on covering him in the Double Bet and that represents the type of risk a bettor has to take. Playing it safe and covering everybody is the best way to take alot of money and turn it into a smaller pot of money.
For two weeks now I planned on making Archarcharch my chalk but post one is quite a hurdle. You have to go back to Winning Colors in '88 and Ferdinand in '86 to see success there. That said, I like his chances quite a bit and love the work and gallop outs he's been doing all week. My chalk is Nehro who I have regarded lightly but I am more compelled after spending some time in analysis: great late kick, a late surge and strong run in the Arkansas Derby, an he seems to be reaching the top of his fitness cycle at just the right time.
I'm expecting Archarcharch will be close and Midnight Interlude seems to be sharpening up well: This lightly raced, inexperienced colt won the Santa Anita Derby just after breaking his maiden. Trainer Baffert seems to be pushing the right buttons in his conditioning and I think he looms as a possible.
Dialed In is a feast or famine late runner who will be heavily bet. He could win but its far from assured and I'm betting against it for the bet sake. I like Shackleford's current form quite a bit as well and Mucho Macho Man will round out my potential covers.
So there we have it. The Turk will be back tomorrow with more racing from Oaks Day and again on Staurday with the Derby Day Late Pick 3.
Have fun, Turk Out!
The Turk has done a fair share of handicapping and gambling over the years. At the end of the day, I'm a horse racing fan and having days like this with multiple graded stakes and graded stakes caliber horses puts the fire back in my soul.
I got grumpy the past few weeks. I hated the way Uncle Mo was handled as a three year old and everywhere I looked I saw horses that looked like fine Grade II 9 furlong horses but so few classic distance runners. I let go some of my bitterness when I printed the Oaks day past performances and felt that feeling again.
The unexpected benefit of handicapping the Oaks-Derby Double is that I have no choice but get down to seriously looking at the Derby closely: It's one thing to vote on potential like I did with the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll, but its quite a different thing to take into account track conditions, current form, post position etc.
Let's get it on!
A nice thirteen horse card greets us with a a gaping hole missing since R Heat Lightning dropped out of contention. Coupled with the faltering of Uncle Mo, we have an opportunity to have a good will pay on this double bet and that my friends is why we play this game, the opportunities that present themselves.
After some internal debate I settled on five possible victors who'd I'd love to cover, but my very light chalk is Kathmanblu: 8 of 9 lifetime in the money, 5 wins, a Grade 2 and 3 win, and a solid CD 1 1/16 win on fast dirt. The McPeek runner with Leparoux up, expect an of the pace win in the deep stretch.
Daisy Devine might not win a class battle but she's a tough girl working well and coming in off a Grade 2 dirt win at 1 1/16 miles. The McKeever/ Graham combo wins 27% of the time together and placing her here for me represents some value, as we are afterall, gambling!
Joyful Victory looms large and I would expect her to be the bettors chalk: Her last two wins, a grade 3 and grade 2 she's won by almost 16 lengths combined for the Turk's favorite dirt trainer, Larry Jones. She'll be flying off the pace late as well.
Zazu is interesting to me: Losing my a neck to Turbulent Descent in the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks after beating Turbulent Descent two back. Nice speed figs from SA this winter and this fillie is ultra consistent.
And finally Summer Soiree is a recently transferred from Larry Jones to Graham Motion, with Saez up, and enters off a grade 3 win by 10 lengths. This War Front girl looks pretty serious and will look to strike the front and not give it up.
I guess we need to discuss the track condition I am assuming is fast. Make sure you check in on scratches and changes, the weather and track conditions before you finalize your choices.
For the Derby I considered dropping Uncle Mo completely off, as fear of a Life at Ten sequel is something i don't think Team Mo want any part of. I don't plan on covering him in the Double Bet and that represents the type of risk a bettor has to take. Playing it safe and covering everybody is the best way to take alot of money and turn it into a smaller pot of money.
For two weeks now I planned on making Archarcharch my chalk but post one is quite a hurdle. You have to go back to Winning Colors in '88 and Ferdinand in '86 to see success there. That said, I like his chances quite a bit and love the work and gallop outs he's been doing all week. My chalk is Nehro who I have regarded lightly but I am more compelled after spending some time in analysis: great late kick, a late surge and strong run in the Arkansas Derby, an he seems to be reaching the top of his fitness cycle at just the right time.
I'm expecting Archarcharch will be close and Midnight Interlude seems to be sharpening up well: This lightly raced, inexperienced colt won the Santa Anita Derby just after breaking his maiden. Trainer Baffert seems to be pushing the right buttons in his conditioning and I think he looms as a possible.
Dialed In is a feast or famine late runner who will be heavily bet. He could win but its far from assured and I'm betting against it for the bet sake. I like Shackleford's current form quite a bit as well and Mucho Macho Man will round out my potential covers.
So there we have it. The Turk will be back tomorrow with more racing from Oaks Day and again on Staurday with the Derby Day Late Pick 3.
Have fun, Turk Out!
The Wireplayers Dirty Derby Dozen Final Poll 2011
DJ, cue Waltzing Matilda. The Wire Players Derby Dozen Pool has reached their final opinions for 2011. I say farewell to Brian, Rob and Geno and Derek, so long to Carly, Brian and Jessica, see you soon to Tony Bada Bing, Ten Cent and Dylan and fair winds and following seas to the Falcon of horse racing, Steve.
The Turk loves the sport of horse racing and never tires from trying to spread the gospel of Ruffian, Hard Spun, Turkoman and Commentator. It's folks like these in the Derby Dozen Poll that bring passion and energy to our sport, and as long as we have that, we have hope. We also have the equine: Never asks to be a free agent, works hard, sacrifices, seeks glory for sportsmanship sake, sometimes gives the ultimate sacrifice in the name of our entertainment. Forget the idiot professional football players who can't keep their twitter accounts or thier other twitters in thier zippers and embrace the horse.
The Turk is planning on handicapping a fast main track for Saturday with soft turf for the ones on green. I like Archarcharch and Mucho Macho Man but the heavy capping begins tonight.
Have fun friends. Turk Out!
The Turk loves the sport of horse racing and never tires from trying to spread the gospel of Ruffian, Hard Spun, Turkoman and Commentator. It's folks like these in the Derby Dozen Poll that bring passion and energy to our sport, and as long as we have that, we have hope. We also have the equine: Never asks to be a free agent, works hard, sacrifices, seeks glory for sportsmanship sake, sometimes gives the ultimate sacrifice in the name of our entertainment. Forget the idiot professional football players who can't keep their twitter accounts or thier other twitters in thier zippers and embrace the horse.
The Turk is planning on handicapping a fast main track for Saturday with soft turf for the ones on green. I like Archarcharch and Mucho Macho Man but the heavy capping begins tonight.
Have fun friends. Turk Out!
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 19, 2011; The Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four including the Azeri and the Rebel
That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.
The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.
What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.
Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011
We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?
Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.
Turk Out!
The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.
What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.
Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011
We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?
Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.
Turk Out!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)