Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 13, 2011: The Arlington Millions and the Anatomy of the Bet

I love Arlington Park. It's a real treat for me to go to a track that gets it so well. I love buying my seats online, getting a box for seven so I can stretch out and spread out, just like if I'm at my kitchen table. I appreciate the kind and hard working folks that come and take my order and entertain me with stories of high rollers, real and imagined. I could prattle on about not enjoying the poly track, but I'd be lying: I've grown use to it and I think it plays pretty fair. I come for that lush green turf. I come for that magnificent paddock. and I come for the people I meet and the city that doesn't appreciate it enough.

Yeah I'm a bit giddy, but that's what winning my first Super High Five bet has done for me. Readers of the Turk will remember that I kicked myself rather hard for leaving my 1991 annual salary on the table by not placing the Super High Five Bet on the Preakness when I had the sequence nailed. I was livid with myself in May and I've waited for an opportunity to wipe this shame off my handicappers report card.

When preparing my handicap for The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner, I completed my base handicap and concluded that just betting a trifecta wasn't going to be worth it: I didn't see any scenario where some real long money was going to crack the ticket. I decided early on that this was my Super High Five Moment. But how to bet is the question. Taking the top six of the base handicap and boxing them is not an option as to that would cost you $720.

Let's get after how I approached that.



My base handicap is a breakdown of the layers of expected finish in the field. I had a WTF moment a few blog entries back and explained my layer handicapping philosophy. As a layer handicapper, I'm less concerned about the actual winner and more interested in "slotting" the horses properly and then having them finish within their slot somewhere, anywhere. I'm seldom emotionally wrapped up with having to have a horse win. Perhaps Zenyatta at the Breeders' Cup Classic was the last time I felt that pang. I have my favorites; my sentimentality is what makes me a fan, being a cold hearted calculator is what makes me a good bettor.

I wanted my risk exposure to be much less than $720 and I started by eliminating some horses who I didn't think would win and I scratched Dean's Kitten and Wigmore Hall from the WIN spot. This isn't a smart move, but its a fiscally sound move. The way you get to a $50,000 high five is by having $19.30 to 1 shot Dean's Kitten win. That said, I didn't want to spend $720 and someone had to get chopped.

Next I make a stand at who won't finish Exotic-Fifth. If I'm going to chop the long shots from winning, it doesn't make much sense to have the Chalk and Place contenders fifth. That eliminated Gio Ponti and Cape Blanco. This isn't a smart move either but hey, listen to me, unless you want to spend $720 you have to make tough choices. This is gambling after all.

Those trims of the WIN and the Fifth Spot took the bet down to $288. While not outside my price range, I thought it was too much of a capital risk and wanted it a bit smaller.

I took the red pen and took the biggest stand that would determine if I won or lost: I eliminated Gio Ponti from any finish except Win and Place. I also eliminated Wigmore Hall and Dean's Kitten from Place.

Sitting at $152, I rested.



What went right? Discounting Zack Hall (Fr) completely and putting Dean's Kitten, who I thought was way too low at a Morning Line 50-1 in the top six. The turf was much softer than I predicted Thursday night and that played to our Euro friends. I also paid attention to the turf conditions and reduced the chance Cape Blanco would drop.

What went wrong? I thought the turf would be a little firmer and Mission Approved's speed would carry far enough. He dropped like a rock in the stretch. Respecting Rahystrada from 1-5. I really thought he could be the value driver.

I've had a full weekend with friends and family. For only having time to handicap and bet one race, I'm feeling pretty good about this.

Enjoy the day, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 13, 2011: The Arlington Million Grade I

God gave me a big nose for a reason, but it isn't big enough: John Henry nips me at the wire but I get up for Show Money behind The Bart. The story of my life. I think I've digressed.

Welcome Friends to the Turk and Little Turk's handicap of the Arlington Million. I've been invited today to handicap one of the premier turf events in North America, the Grade I Arlington Million,for the Thorofan's Handicappers Corner. To those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, its an organization inspired by and serving the 29 million horse racing fans in America who deserve a voice.

Arlington Park is a pretty special place to me. I was living north of Chicago in 1985, serving in the United States Navy, when a fire swept through the track , destroying the old place. I joined the curious and the concerned that watched from the edge of the road. It's a wonderful new facility now, under appreciated in the big scheme of things, but just a completely fan-centric race day experience they offer and its one of this Turk's favorite places to visit.

Arlington Park installed a poly surface in 2007, which I don't play often, but when I do, I find it plays pretty fair. For me, the Arlington turf course is the draw. It's maintained immaculately, not like the grass at Soldier Field. The race falls in a nice place in the conditions book, a month or so after the classic distance Grade I turf affairs start happening, races like The Colonial Turf Cup,Arlington Park Handicap, The Man O' War and the United Nations,and it sets the winner up perfectly for The Breeders' Cup Turf. The race attracts some of the best turf horses in the America and the best second tier grass runners from Europe and the race is the cornerstone of Arlington Park's biggest day of the year. All good stuff.

Before I look at this year's field I need to understand what to expect the turf to be like: The course is currently listed as Yielding. The weather leading up to Saturday suggests that rain is possible. I'm leaning towards the course still being soft, possibly listed as good, but I expect it will play fair and not favor speed. You have to make a stand on what you think the conditions will be before you break down the runners. There are some great Twitter and Facebook feeds out there you can tap to get a real time feel for the truth. Take advantage of the new information when you can. On raceday make sure you check scratches and changes and the tote board is always something to keep your eye on so you don't invest too heavily when the odds aren't in your favor.

I also like to take a few minutes and review the past, which is often a window into the future. From the racecharts I've taken a quick peek at the last six editions.



Glean what you like from it, but I'm focused on the favorite has been taking Place money more often than not and that the winner is being identified as one of the top three by savvy horse players. It looks like Show is in play with the average Show horse was typically the fifth favorite of the punters. Only one chalk has one in the past six editions.

When you're looking at this race, or any race with foreign invaders, avoid assigning mythical powers to these animals; Just because they are from Europe don't assume they will dominate. Respect them, sure, get as much information on them as you can, but don't ascribe brilliance too quickly.





Again, I'm leaning towards slightly soft going and I'm going to discount front running speed carrying over distance. I see the pace being set by Mission Approved, Proceed Bee and Dean's Kitten possibly. Cape Blanco (IRE) will be pulled back and kept about 1 length back to the inside. A bunch of closers, lead by Gio Ponti will be poised to strike at the top of the straight.

Flaws: Every horse has flaws that can make you shy away. Gio Ponti hasn't won in awhile. Cape Blanco (Ire) has been anointed, but look at the running lines, very inconsistent and no reason to be so respectful of the expected chalk. Mission Approved is an honest runner who will give you the same effort every race. I like the training at Saratoga and I think the 7 YO is poised for a good year.

Man O' War /Good Turf/ July 9,2011



This can either be a good betting race or a dud. I don't see the longest prices winning or placing under almost any circumstances. I don't think the trifecta will pay that well with my base handicap so I'll consider superfecta or super high-5 and take a swing at the fences.

The base handicap is built and again it's built with certain turf conditions in mind and its built with the pace scenario keyed on Mission Approved. Any scratches from the pace players will force a reassessment. Pay attention to the scratches and changes, as well as the tote board, and use your base handicap to quickly work through your own value versus reward equations. Finally, only bet what you are prepared to lose.

Do your own handicapping and remember the past is prologue. Thanks again for the Thorofan for allowing me to entertain you. I'm hopeful my degenerate core audience will become members soon.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 18, 2011: The Colonial Downs Colonial Turf Cup Day

Happy Fathers Day to all my horseplayer friends, readers and family. That handsome collection of fella's are all the fathers in The Turk's immediate family, taken on the deck of the Turk household where we enjoyed each others company, great food, fine cigars and spirits. There are plenty of fathers no longer with us anymore, and I can think of some wonderful horseplayers that taught me that the races are so much better when you can enjoy them with your family, so no matter where you were today, I raise my whiskey glass and salute all the men who share the fraternity of fatherhood with me.

There were some lovely races to pick from yesterday, and some thrilling stars competing as well. Who can't look at Blind Luck and get excited? For me as a player, I wanted to pick a sequence of races over turf to have a go with, and I settled on the Colonial Downs Colonial Turf Cup day as my weekend target. While I ultimately passed on the Pick Three, I had some success and doubled my money with good handicapping and a reasonable, if not conservative bet strategy.

Let's get after it!




I passed on a Pick Three bet. The sequence seemed really chalky to me and I couldn't get excited about it. I made a mistake too and I wanted a pick four and assumed there would be one from race 6-9 but that wasn't the case; even experienced players make assumptions and mistakes and I wasted time handicapping a 5 furlong maiden two year old filly race, yawn! The lesson is pretty self explanatory and I urge everyone to double check the race conditions before planning bet options.

After my mistake, the Da Hoss didn't go well for me. My chalk was also the bettor's top choice, Mikoshi, who finished a length back in Show. 9-1 Followmyfootsteps took the wire with 12-1 Action Andy for Place, with 15-1 Vanquisher fourth, a combo that powered a $3,650 $1 Super and a $3,700 $2 Trifecta. Nice payouts, but I wasn't in the right zip code on that one. Moving on...

Race 7 was the Edward Evans All Along Grade 3. With heavy duty chalk Aruna singled, I crafted a cheap-o superfecta bet that cost $24 and paid $77. Workmanlike and a reminder that you don't have to be afraid to play with heavy chalk.

The the Colonial Turf Cup I returned to the same bet structure I used on race 6, a five horse superfecta box. I was a bit surprised at the action Rahystrada captured as I had the former claim fifth on my chart, but he made the final cut and powered a $490 superfecta win, with my strong move placing Dark Cove high while the rest of the betting public had him 6th.

All in all the results were better than a sharp stick in the eye even though it wasn't what I'd consider a good betting card. Doubling your money is not some automatic process, but by sticking to sound handicapping fundamentals and then practical betting strategies, you can learn to string good days together. Today's key was identifying contenders from pretenders and then slotting them into the top five, regardless if I thought they'd be under or overlays. I handicap without morning lines and I encourage horse players to do that: Don't let any bias interfere with your handicapping and morning line odds are just that, another players bias. After you handicap and before you prepare bets, take a gander at both the morning lines and the tote board; it's a thrill when you have a horse high on the board and others aren't as bullish, and it's also important to know what to expect if you do win. In Race 7 if I would have done a 5 horse superfecta box for $120 dollars I would have pulled the worst magic trick in racing, turning a big pile of money into a small pile of money.

And finally, the reason why I work crazy hours, why I travel my ass off, put up with a Blackberry that never stops ringing, is also the greatest gift a man could want, my son, Little Turk. He's quite a fine young man and I'm proud to be his dad.

Happy Fathers Day All, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 21, 2010; The Arlington Million Grade I

The Turk has the opportunity to handicap one of his favorite Grade I races, the Arlington Million, for one of his favorite organizations, Thorofan, and the deadline is tomorrow morning. Like most things in life, timing is everything, and this is the sort of handicap I'd rather not finalize until mid Saturday afternoon. Why? What's the weather going to be like between Thursday night and Saturday early evening? That's a long time and it's the turf condition friends, it's the rain between now and then and the firmness or lack thereof, that might be what settles this thing. The Turk, like anyone foolish enough to publicly state opinion on races more then three days before the event, has to suck it up and give an opinion as best as possible based on what they think the situation will be. My base handicapping expects the turf to be something better than yielding and the rails to be set to zero.

Sorting your way through the foreign invaders and accurately placing them in context with the rest of the field is always challenging. What I really took away from this exercise is how undistinguished the older turf division is and how unmotivated the trainers and connections of the best European horses are to come to the mid Western United States to chase a purse such as this. As a handicapper, I try not to focus on who isn't in the field and only concern myself with who is. Let's get after it.

Arlington Park Race 10: The Arlington Million Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Turf for 3 YO and Up



The spreadsheet, while a bit busy, attempts to bring some context to the foreign runners first. I prefer the information I have with the North American runners but if you use Google to your advantage you can find out lots more now about these foreigners than you could have even 5 years go. It's not easy to get comfortable comparing Racing Post Ratings but that's what you have instead of speed figs. You'll find a good writeup by DRF Foreign ace, Alan Shuback, here.

Of the foreign runners, Tazeez (pictured above), a 6 YO gelded son of Silver Hawk, bred in Kentucky, appears to be the most serious.

I've attached a key race video of Tazeez, the Prince of Wales Stakes that Debussy (IRE) also competed in. While tiring, Tazeez contracted and then extended his stride again gamely.



Never put the cart before the horse: before you consider the bet, build your own odds line or modify the track handicappers based on your own opinions. I say at this point don't worry about looking for value or prices, under or overlays, simply focus on who will win, who has a chance to be in the top four, and who will miss even on the exotic tickets. In my mind, this is a two horse race between Tazeez and Gio Ponti. Behind them is a group of horses (Rahystrada, Debussy, General Quarters and Just as Well) that have an opportunity to finish in Place/Show or 4th and then four horses I consider on the outer fringe. While I said don't worry about the bet at this point, it is important to understand you can't cover all the possibilities and a handicapper will often toss good horses just because you must be decisive. These four tosses(Marsh Side, Tajaaweed,Quite a Handful and Summit Surge (Ire)) you can only hope they don't hurt you but that's why they call this gambling.

It's been 8 races and 16 months since Tazeez won a race. He cuts back a quarter mile from his last effort and takes Lasix for the first time. I generally discount left handed versus right handed running, but it appears he runs stronger going right, the wrong way in this case. I guess you could say you can be right and be wrong (the daily double: bad puns and bad handicapping!) I'm a big fan of Trainer Gosden so I will discount this statistical blip.

Gio Ponti most likely will be the post time chalk and its not like he doesn't deserve it. The son of Tale of the Cat has one of the lowest turf Tomlinson ratings yet he is looking for his tenth turf win in 17 tries with over $2.6 MM earned on turf alone. Gio Ponti won this race a year ago on turf listed as good , ran good on turf listed as soft, and has run very well on firm grass. My handicap has Gio Ponti taking Place but there is at least a 40% chance he wins this one.

The next layer down seems to have lots of equal ability horses. I like Just As Well to come up for Show. Hasn't had a three digit BSF since last September and hasn't one since last year's Arlington Millions preview day. Trainer Sheppard puts one of the great turf riders up with J. Leparoux. Has been closing with nice late moves and in terms of value, I'd expect his post time odds to be third best or worse and I like him to sneak up and win at >6-1.

General Quarters may be the key to how the final order works out. Seems to like softer turf versus hard grass listed as firm. Always game, such a fighter, the softer the going, the more you must respect him. I will shade General Quarters from Show to 6th place based on this scant information.

I'm not terribly impressed by Debussy (Ire) but that's only based on the running lines. the second entry for Trainer Gosden gets lasix and I'm not sure what the expectation is.

Rahystrada is another price that has enough ability to shock for a win but most likely can surge as high as Place and as low as 6th. Best BSF (100) was on firm turf at Churchill last November. Ran in 50K claiming races this time last year but wona Grade III on Million Preview day and deserves respect.

If I truly believe the results will be fairly chalky for the first three spots, then the risk/reward of too many superfecta choices just isn't worth it for much more than a dime. I'll keep the bet reasonable here, work a trifecta and exacta as well based on my base handicap and let it roll.



I'll be back tomorrow with my Pick Three for Arlington that climaxes with the Arlington Million.

Have Fun, Turk Out!