Post Race Results for The Beaumont Grade 2 at Keeneland

"Past Performance is NO promise of future performance" said the bald handicapper

My last blog focused on a completely bias free handicap. My point, and quite honestly, my complete outlook on handicapping is "....it's just numbers." Give me a Past Performance filled with horses who have some history, eliminate the hype and the bias, and I can usually do some good things with the handicap.

I'd add another layer to it; Give me a race where the track is fast, there are no European Invaders, and where I don't know anything about the horses, including their names, and I'd be at my best just analyzing the numbers. I don't pretend to be normal, so what works for me doesn't work for everyone, but I admit it, as hard as I try, bias creeps into my handicaps. Sometimes the race fan in me overrules the heartless and analytic handicapper in me and I find sentimentality having some role to play in my bet.

I wanted to find a stakes race last weekend and demonstrate my long held theorem. I choose the Beaumont, a Grade 2 3 YO filly sprint at Keeneland. I pay almost no attention to 2 YOs, especially fillies, and I'm not that into 3 YO Fillies until the Kentucky Oaks so when I say I knew nothing of these gals, I knew absolutely nothing.

I've been doing this a long time. It's not often you see a straight trifecta picked by a handicapper. My long time readers know I refer to myself as a "range handicapper", I predict the range (win, win-place, place-show, show-exotic, exotic, also rans) the horses will fall in within the order of finish and I don't get that hung up on picking winners. I'm an exotic player and it's a lack of emotion and bias that I credit my success with as a bettor.

It was a good handicap: On paper, the pace and the best horses seem to be evident, and red herrings like Renee's Titan and Premier Steps (Ire) didn't fool me.

Past performance is no indication of future performance. I am lucky to hit about 4 out of 10 Superfecta's. I sometimes go 0 for 10 and then turn around and hit 6 of 10. The only reason I eck out a positive ROI is by making good investments. I told my readers I wasn't going to bet The Beaumont: it was an exercise more than a betting opportunity for me. Betting my handicap cold would have won you $400.50 on a $2 bet. I never loose sleep over the money I leave on the table in situations like this. I am starting to hit my handicapping groove again and when I'm ready to invest real cash I'll let you know.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Beaumont Grade 2 at Kee and Remembering Maram

Readers of the Turk know that one of the key things I preach is not to allow outside influences, horse hype, to interfere with your handicapping. It's a very difficult thing to do, as race fan's, we want to read and follow the sport, but to do so injects bias, other's opinions, into what we think.

Sometimes I like to handicap races where I don't have any preconceived notions of the runners. A 3 year old filly sprint race for example, like the Grade 2 Beaumont at Keeneland, provides me that opportunity.

It's just numbers to me. My handicapping of horses like this has to be, as I've seen very little video of the races these fillies have been in, nor have i seen any in person that I know of. The gals have an average of 5.45 career starts, a mix of dirt, fake dirt and turf, and plenty of work on the work tab. Numbers: as long as I have em', I'll handicap em'.

I have never done well as Keeneland since the switch to the fake stuff. the combination of limited knowledge of the runners, and a track I don't handicap well, doesn't encourage me to invest my betting capital with confidence, so I'll build a handicap, build a bet strategy, but in full disclosure, my not plop down real money.

I keep track of theoretical bets, something I have done for years. My ROI is higher on theory bets than actual bets and I think the reason is pretty obvious: The fear of losing isn't there with theory betting and it makes you a bit more daring, perhaps more reckless, and I know that some of my biggest real strikes in life is when I am a bit reckless.

Anyway, I'm not sure If I'm betting for real, but let's get after it!



Training at Hollywood for weeks now, Ciao Bella Luna returns to fake dirt and cuts back in distance, a 21% angle of Hollendorfer's.

Perhaps two safer top picks, Magical Moon and Judy in Disguise (GB) break in the middle of pack. Judy in Disguise likes to be right on the pace and has strung to very good races together, with Mike Smith up this time, third pilot in three races.

Al Stall's Magical Moon cuts back and switches from turf. As a 2YO, raced at KEE in a Grade 1 and was a game Show.

Chad Brown's Premier Steps (Ire) switches from turf, something Brown has a goose egg with in 11 tries, and Brown's fake dirt record is a goose egg as well. Brown is a wonderful young trainer, and I'd be remiss to not mention Maram, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf champion, who passed away last year, far too young. Rest in Peace Maram.

Irish Presence is one I may have wrong: Gary Stevens up, the Midnight Lute gal had a bullet at Hollywood this past week and is 3 of 4 in the money on fake stuff.

Renee's Titan comes in off a poor dirt effort at 1 mile after winning on the dirt at 6.5 panels. Only 1 win in 5 tries on fake stuff. A closer, will have to navigate traffic too. I'm not sold.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

Rest in Peace Maram

Post Race Analysis for April 8, 2009: The Beaumont Grade II

KEE Race 8: The Beaumont Grade II; 7f and 184 feet on fake dirt for 3 YO Fillies.



You can be right and wrong all at the same time when you handicap. It was clear that Selva had the speed and I believed pre race that Selva would be in front at the top of the stretch and that Evita Argentina would have to take a good trip and be in position to take the lead in the last 1/8. Well, yes Selva was right there, but she was trading hop for hop with War Kill, while Evita Argentina just never seemed to fire.

My handicap lined up pretty much with how the betting public read the race. One overwhelming truth is that when a horse wins contrary to what the bettors think, the payout will be sweet. War Kill held off Selva and bettors cashed $35.40 win tickets and $106.60 exactas.

Pre Race I felt strongly that Evita Argentina and Selva would finish 1-2. Checking the tote board, I didn't see any strong reason to bet a combination that would have paid less then 8 bucks. I passed.


Watching the limited race video, I don't really get this race, and as a handicapper, I like to pretend that I'm an NFL cornerbnack that just got burned: I get up, scrap the grass off my helmet, and the next simple tackle I make I celebrate like it's 1999. The truth is I stew when a race doesn't unfold the way I 'cap it. Looking at the PPs, you'll never pick War Kill. The subtle hint is Leparoux is up. Shrewd cappers are fond of a trainer's second entry as the sleeper entry, and Trainer McPeek had Loveyou Everybody, who I liked better even though it was the first race back after a long layoff. You need lots of information to beat this game, and information collection is a full time job, unless you cheat and pay lots of money to have boat loads of information funnelled to you, but you still have to analyze it. War Kill looked like she won easily and the PP's don't support the effort. You have to get over it and get back to the next race. For me that will be handicapping tomorrow's Grade I, The Vinery Madison, 7 F for F&M 4 YO and up. Turk favorite Ventura is back. The picture above is my work area with all the tools of this 'ol fashioned handicapper; PP's, trip notes, clocker comments, laptop and bourbon with diet Coke and lime. Giddy up.

Beaumont Grade II Scratches

As of right now, only No Speed Limit has scratched. It's 53 degrees and sunny at Keeneland as of noontime.



I have no real bet strategy yet. I'll watch the tote and build something off my handicap. Post time is 4:35 local time.

Visit the excellent Keeneland.com, one of the better track websites.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: April 8, 2009; The Beaumont Grade II

Ahhh, Keeneland. The Turk generally likes to lay low on Monday's after busy weekends, but I just can't resist taking an early look at the Keeneland card for this week. The best way to get a feel for how the tracks playing is to just start handicapping, and in anticipation of the Blue Grass Stakes, it's time to break out the red flair pen and get it on. In case you're wondering which fine looking IEAH horse that is, that's 2008 Beaumont winner, Ariege, with Gomez up. Photo by Equisportphotos.com

KEE Race 8 (Wednesday April 8, 2009): The Beaumont Grade II; 7 furlongs and 184 feet (.35 furlongs) on some version of fake dirt for fillies 3 YO.



I'm calling this my preliminary handicap. Outside of Evita Argentina and Dave's Revenge, I'm not very familar with these horses, on I'll be doing some trip checks tomorrow and I'll set a final ordering. I think that Evita Argentina is the class of the race and should win. I would expect the horse to get pushed to <2-1. I'm intrigued by Selva and may fashion some tickets with her on top.

I love mid week stake races. Good stuff! I wish I was in the bluegrass for the next few weeks, but this honorary Kentucky gentleman will have to sip a bit of bourbon and think about a trip next year.