Post Race Results: The Dr. James Penny G3 at Parx

Dr. Penny G3 at PARX

Boom goes the dynamite. The Turk doesn't brag, there is no bravado in my tweets or posts. The Turk doesn't profit in anyway from the blog. I do this because I'm a long time handicapper who works a high pressure job and this is my golf, my Suduko, my Farmville, my "...whatever get's you through the night."

I had no expectations for today's race. I handicapped it, I bet it and wow: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta. Check Check Check. I almost didn't bet it with two scratches, but I was all dressed up and ready to go and I did it.

The Turk is off for a well earned cigar.  Thanks for reading!

The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade 1

I love the fun days in racing; early in the season its usually all about the three year olds, but this upcoming weekend is one of the premier handicap division races of the year, The Santa Anita Handicap, or just The Big Cap.

I'd be remiss to not thank the good people of The Thorofan who indulge my love of the handicap division and allow me to handicap for their Handicappers Corner some of my favorite races of the year.  The Thorofan is an organization run by race fans, for race fans.  While The 'Ol Turk is not the most socially active person in the world, I know many Thorofan members and I know personally what a wonderful experience it is to meet and spend time with like minded folks, and us horse fans all know how rare it is to meet horse racing folks in everyday life.
I was happy to see at least 8 horses in this field, and I would have liked to have seen a few more, as the quality at the top is really good and a few more horses may have helped make the value a bit more appealing.  I'll be honest, with a 2-1,9-5, and a 5-2 morning line on three horses, I'd typically walk away from this race.  Why Turk?  I just don't see the value.  If you are going to play it, keep it real.

Let's get after it and figure out what to do with this.



Right off the bat, remember to check the weather and the track conditions before you consider your bet.  I think it will be dry and fast.

When I look at the Past Performances the unmistakable first blush take away is that Will Take Charge, Mucho Macho Man and Game on Dude have an impressive collection of Grade 1 wins amongst themselves: Clark,  Travers, Breeders Cup Classic, Pacific Cup Classic and Hollywood Gold Cup, and $14.3 MM in earnings.  One of the things I love about the Handicap Division is the track record of these animals, with the big three having a collective 70 starts with 40 wins between them, I know what to expect and there is enough of a sample size to guide an information handicapper like myself. I'm worthless with 2 YO's because I have no numbers to work with.  As in life, and handicapping, Know Thyself, and I know and bet my strengths and I try to pass on the things I don't do well.

I say all that because I think one of the big three will win.  Where to slot them is where things get interesting.  I worked backward from the pace:  I expect to see Game on Dude set the pace.  I'd expect :46 and change in the first 4 panels with perhaps Imperative going with him.  I haven't liked the Game on Dude on dirt for a bit now:  two poor SA starts in a row, a solid Clark on a gutty ship in by Baffert, before that two fake dirt wins, and his San Antonio-Santa Anita Handicap-Charles Town Classic back to back to back dirt excellence. 7 Wins on 10 SA starts and his 2nd off the layoff after the Clark, something Baffert wins 18% of the time. Baffert and Smith are 31% together at SA. I have him setting the pace but failing short, the continuation of  a trend that's formed.  I have him fourth.

That's a hell of a way to start a handicap, but I unfolded it from the pace scenario I envision, and while not winning, I pencil Game on Dude as the key runner.  He'll provide the groovy brush work on the tom tom for others to jazz off of.  Others, hmmm.

I have Mucho Macho Man on top.  Breaking from the 2 post, a post that wins 23% of the time in races beyond 1 mile, the top winning percentage of all the posts.  A romp last time out, the Breeders Cup Classic at SA and the Goodwood, errr, the Awesome Again, also at SA.  Training well, he's my pick.

I like Will Take Charge and I have him in Place. I enjoy the way D.Wayne campaigns him and sends him out anyplace, anytime.  One of my favorite story lines in 2013 was the renaissance of Trainer Lucas.  In a sport devoid of real charismatic (pun intended) figures, having the swagger of this man back is exciting. Training very well, wouldn't be surprised if he won.  I'll be covering him in the win spot.

I like American Blend, coming late, to sneak into the top thee.  His long odds will add some value to the bet if things unfold like I hope.  His late running style encourages me even though the six year old gelded Quiet American runner has never gone the classic distance.

I think Blingo could rock the boat and break the top four.  If I'm hedging I flip flop and cover Blingo in the American Blend spot.  Blingo, in the Moss colors, is no Tiago, but he's a Grade 2 winner last time out at SA.

As I said, I'd most likely not bet this race because there is risk without alot of reward, unless of course the big three puke on themselves and someone like American Blend freaks.  I don't see it.  I built a 5 horse superfecta matrix that will cost $24 on a $1 bet.  It's a risk I'd be willing to make even though I'm not sure if the reward justifies it.  I think I'll watch the tote and hope Game on Dude gets bet heavy.

Have fun friends:  Bet responsibility, drink mostly responsibly, and enjoy the day.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 145th Belmont Stakes Grade 1

The Belmont: A Cecil B. Demile production

Who is going to win the Belmont Turk?  I don't know!  I handicap.  Handicapping is controlling variables and assigning percentages to the horses  and hoping they run on the track as they appear on paper.  Throw all that crap out the window today:  a very wet racetrack, a big field, and a crazy distance where the pace through the first mile or so very well will decide who will be in contention in the last 1/8 of a mile. 

It is unfortunate that the weather has been so bad, as the race on paper, the analysis of the past performances, is compelling stuff.  The rain should be gone, but the damage is done with the track listed as muddy currently. The track drains well and they will work it quite a bit, so I'm not going to worry too much about it and just build the bets the way I see them.

Which leads me to my next problem:  The way I see it is murky.  A gentleman I work with will often refer to overstaffed efforts as a "Cecil B. Demile" production, think a cast of thousands, epic in scope.  14 tired horses at 10 panels can often make for shear madness at 12 panels. 

I started my handicapping today with trying to identify some toss horses.  My preconceived Superfecta bet strategy is to single a winner and have a cast of thousands beneath, but I'd like to toss at least four out of the boat. 

Frac Daddy/1: Low Wet Track Tominson and never won past 1 1/16 miles.  have to go back to November 2012 for last win.

Giant Finish/4:  Low on the Class Scale, slow on the Beyer Scale, two wins in NYS restricted races.

Midnight Taboo/8: Lightly raced Repole/Pletcher combination, seems to be vanity entry.

Vyjack/11:  I like this horse, but this is gambling not Facebook Horse "Like" personality contests.  Very poor Kentucky Derby effort off a pretty good Wood Memorial.  Tough call, but I need to make some tough calls. 

Let's get it on!



My view of the field is that Orb is the best horse in the gate.  You have never, ever, read the Turk whining after a race about the trip, I don't indulge in such loser talk, but Orb didn't have a great ground saving run, or better put, ground saving but slowed.



I'm going to build some sensible sized Superfecta and Exacta bets around Orb singled on top and use the Cecil B. Demile cast of thousands wheeled underneath him in the Superfecta.  In the Exacta I'm only interested in value so my $14 bet may be adjust slightly depending on tote board odds at 6:40 ET. 

Have fun friends.  The Turk isn't that into the Belmont quite frankly, I'm not sure why, but I won't fake horse fan excitement.  The turf races are what I really enjoy on Belmont day but I'll pass because of the conditions.  Hollywood Park has a few nice turf races today and hopefully I have profits waiting out West. 

Mrs. Turk is betting Golden Soul and Little Turk thinks a "Filly in the Belmont" is worth taking. 

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis of the Stakes Race Grab Bag: The Hendrie at Woodbine and The Californian at Hollywood

Layer Handicapping: WTF Turk?

I'm a layer handicapper;  I don't generally care which horse finishes first, second or last as long as I can predict which part of the field the horse will be in.  I break them into A, B, C and D, with A and B horses part of the Exotic ticket and C and below Toss Outs.  I provide shading sometimes with +/- but most of the time, I don't really care. 

Yesterday was a perfect example of layer handicapping, for on a day when both of my chalks finished dead last I still cashed 3 of 4 bets, winning two superfectas, one trifecta, and losing the fourth bet, a trifecta, when I refused to cover Clubhouse Ride in the top spot.  The bet would have been a net negative cash winner so I'm glad for that stroke of handicapper luck. 

All in all, a nice $75 net day for 1 hour of handicapping which could have been nicer but the overbet horses found a win to win both races, a bit of handicapper non luck; every action has an equal and opposite reaction I reckon!




At Woodbine, Delightful Mary off the very long layoff was the best by far.  Sid Attard with Heavenly Pride, also off a very long layoff, was second best.  Never be afraid of long layoffs when sharp trainers have been working them consistently for six weeks or more;  these sharp eyed men study the conditions book and find good spots to get the horse back in the gate. Little River, as in her last race, couldn't handle the distance and Trainer Cox must reconsider two turns.



At Hollywood, Clubhouse Ride did what I bet against, winning after 5 straight Place finishes.  I knew Liaison would be bet very heavy, so with those two 1-2 there was NO value at all in this race.  My chalk, Blueskiesandrainbows couldn't sustain the speed and with his loss, the value of the bet evaporated.  I lost $7 bucks on the Super and I could have won the Trifecta but not made any additional money  as I said prerace I would exclude Clubhouse Ride from the Trifecta top spot, the only change from my Superfecta base handicap.  The Tri won $55.70, the bet would have cost $56, so there you have it. 



This was less a demonstration in top skill as instead an example of solid handicapping, decent betting, and positive ROI, albeit a modest payout.  I am on the march to bang out positive ROI week in and out at The Turk, so I'll take the money and run.

Enjoy your Sunday Friends;  I can't say I'm giddy about the Belmont; I'm not sure what I'll handicap next week, and while I will wager something on the Belmont, I know there is better value out there amongst the graded stakes and I just have to find it.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Hendrie at Woodbine and Grade 2 Californian at Hollywood Park

Blueskiesandrainbows

The Turk was looking for interesting races that he could bet and win today. It seems like an obvious statement, but many horse players want to play a specific track regardless of the ticket or the conditions before them. I say, tilt the field in a way that works for you.

I am avoiding the New York State bred card at Belmont like the plague because the racing to me just isn't that compelling, and while as a fan I'm interested in a couple of the races at Penn, it's a track I seldom handicap and I don't plan to start, so I'll pass. I settled on two polytracks, but two tracks I have a good record of handicapping well. I guess the point I am trying to make is to look for betting opportunities where the odds are a bit tilted in your favor; just because you are at the track doesn't mean you have to bet those races. I am good with turf races between 8 and 10 furlongs but I know I'm not very good with 12 furlong races, so I skip those. I skip muddy and sloppy tracks when possible, I skip races moved off turf, I skip 2 YO races and seldom do I handicap 3 YO filly races. Know thy self and know which situations produce your worst results and avoid those.

Let's get it on!



The Hendrie at Woodbine is a very interesting race as most of the field have run quite a bit over that track and most have had success. Any of four gals has a chance to win and my tepid chalk is Little River, with Da Silva up. The four year old Exchange Rate daughter raced well at KEE and then came home to go win at WO in early May. Trainer Cox and Da Silva win 40% of the time together in 15 tries. 4 fake dirt tries have all ended in the money.

Acting Naughty from post 1 won the Grade 3 Whimsical in late April at WO by a head over Starship Universe and Katie Get Excited. 6 wins in 13 fake dirt tries and 13 of 16 in the money on WO fake dirt.

Trainer Sid Attard brings Heavenly Pride here off a layoff since September. The 5 YO Sky Mesa Mare has been training steady since April and should offer a nice price.

Trainer Mark Casse goes one step further, bringing Delightful Mary in off a layoff since March 2012. The 5 YO Florida bred is training very sharply and has three wins in 4 starts at WO.

Starship Universe and Katie Get Excited are in the mix for the exotics while I tossed Man Stuff and Actionontwo from any prizes. 20 cent Superfecta and 20 cent Triactors are on the menu and I'll place one of each.

At Hollywood, the Grade 2 Californian at 1 1/8 miles over fake dirt is a pretty competitive as well. I'm also present a tepid chalk here as well, Blueskiesandrainbows, pictured above. Hollendorfer and Bejarano are 31% together in 48 tries at HP and 32% together over running year in 123 tries. That's money. Weakened at 1 1/16 last time out.

Liaison, 6th in the Kentucky Derby and this year's Santa Mile winnerwon the Grade 3 Leyroy that Blueskiesandrainbows faded in. Kettle Corn was there too. Hmmm......



Liaison will be bet hard: 6 of 6 in the money on fake dirt, 5 of 5 in the money Hollywood, but no wins in 3 starts at the distance.

Kettle Corn is impressive as well: 12 of 13 in the money on fake dirt and 7 of 7 in the money at Hollywood Park. 7 wins in 21 starts lifetime for the 6 YO Candy Ride (Arg) trained by Sadler with Espinoza up.

The betting here for me is against Clubhouse Ride.  5 straight Place finishes and only 3 wins in 27 tries.  I respect the 5 YO, but not enough to back the win in the Trifecta, only in the Super. 

Oilisblackgold, Holladay Road and Batti Man (Arg) are too sharp to not consider for a minor place on the ticket, so no tosses in this one. 10 Cent Super and $1 Trifecta options are available and I'm going to try one of each.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 25 May 2013 at Arlington Park

."...left Money on the Table"

Without high expectations, I approached my handicapping of Arlington yesterday.  I was encouraged by what I thought were very poor morning lines that could be exploited.  I ended the day up $105.29 with an ROI of 133% but with regrets of leaving money on the table.

As I said pre race, I handicapped the Pick 5 but I passed on betting.  That's good because I missed badly on the $7,500 claimer as well as the Hanshin Cup.  I did however bet the Pick 4 and flamed out.

I constructed 3 superfecta bets for the 3 stake races.  While I won one of those superfectas, I did not place the matching bet I typically make, a boxed 4 horse trifecta off my base handicap.  By failing to follow my general betting habits I left $185 for the Arlington Matron Trifecta on the table for the $48 bet.  I make mistakes like everyone and this was a mistake.

I did some good handicapping yesterday:  In the Matron, I had the 5th and 7th betting favorites in my top 3.  In the Hanshin Cup I didn't bite on the heavy betting favorites, backing a better price that was wasn't as good as the better price that actually won.  I had a pretty good read on the Classic with the exception of my chalk, Yorkshire Icon (GB) that never fired from the 8th spot on the tote board.



Have fun friends this Memorial Day Weekend.  I would like to remember my fellow veterans and our friends who didn't make it.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis Hoosier Park Late Pick 4

Neck 'n Neck:  Photo by Hearald Bulletin

The Turk spoke at length yesterday about choosing your betting targets carefully, and I must say I am quite pleased with my results from Hoosier Park's late Pick 4, which included the Indiana Oaks and the Indiana Derby.

My first piece of good advice was the consistency of the handicapping that was allowed by having a Pick 4 that consisted of all dirt races with all at two turns, and good weather.  In about 2 hours work (4 hours total when I add in the work pleasure of blogging) I was able to return over $1,100 by just applying my base handicaps over what is essentially lazy betting for me, simple boxes.  I made a key decision that made it possible, a decision I acknowledged pre race, the decision to single Grace Hall in the Indiana Oaks, and then fate helped as well (the scratch of Juanita gave me the cash to go as deep as Salty Strike in the Mari Hilman George).  Fate doesn't just go in the Turk's favor though, the neck that Fourty Nine Watts beat Shadowbdancing by in the Schaefer Mile cost me the Superfecta and an additional $4,200.  Spilled milk, never focus on the losses, there are no moral victories, only cash in or out of the wallet, and my wallet is phat right now.



I followed my basics, which to my five readers, I have articulated ad nausea over the years.  I focused yesterday on current form, current work, in the money records on the surface and the distance, and Hoosier Park work got a premium.  I successfully put Hurricane Ike high up my rankings while the bettors only had him 8th in the field based on his last good race, last year's solid work on this Indiana Derby day. I wasn't floored by Bob Baffert's deep stable that shipped here.  Good horses, but ask yourself why here?  They aren't prepping for Breeders' Cup work, he was trying to win something for demanding owners while he can in this season.  He's good at this, but none of his runners were locks, yet the name Baffert draws action.

About the only disappointment for me was all the scratches in the Indiana Oaks (4 horses); It really made the race not bettable, especially with one entry coupled. The second disappointment was the performance of Stealcase and Eastergift in the Indiana Derby.  I could have survived one of them failing and won the superfecta, but I couldn't overcome both have really poor efforts. 

Good stuff friends, it's racing like yesterday that really lowers my blood pressure and makes me remember why I love the game and this blog. 

Most of October's balance will be dedicated towards getting ready for my biggest betting weekend left in the calendar year, Breeders' Cup.  After going to the last two at Churchill Downs I've chosen to skip this years.  Why Turk?  Simple reason really, I can't  bet like I like to bet when I am at the event.  I get caught up in the social aspects of the races, I meet friends, I loiter.  At Turk Central I will melt down my ADW circuits with my complicated matrix superfecta bets and my goal is a $2,000 plus net earnings weekend minimum.  I never set expectations like that, it's a slippery slope, but I'm serious about these two days this year and I'm upping the pressure I put on myself to prepare.  Preparation is secondary to my profession, so I will fit it in and I have plenty of time. 

Have a good NFL betting day friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 144th Belmont Stakes Superfecta

I scrapped the blog entry that I wrote, just hit the delete button, right after the news that I'll Have Another was scratched. I considered not blogging or betting at all. Just numb. If you're reading a horse racing blog, I'm betting you know exactly what I mean.

Secretariat doesn't belong to me. In 1973 I was seven, and while my parents saw Secretariat race, those feelings aren't first person to me. Affirmed, different story. While hard for young people now to believe, horse racing was on television, was covered in Sports Illustrated, was in the daily newspapers. I remember like yesterday sitting at a family first communion party for my little cousin watching Affirmed win the Kentucky Derby. I remember vividly coming home from school to check the mail for my SI magazine. I experienced that Triple Crown as a horse racing fan, not a bettor, and the thrill of it is still deep set within me. I was convinced Big Brown was going to win. Take Desormeaux off and I would have declared it a lock. I liked I'll Have Another coming out of Santa Anita Derby, but I wasn't sold until the Preakness stretch run. My deleted blog entry singled I'll Have Another in the Superfecta, I thought he would win the Triple Crown. I had his summer mapped out in my mind. I saw him winning the Goodwood G1 before winning The Breeders' Cup Classic. Hope dashed, yet hope still springs eternal. Another Triple Crown season will come next year and another chance to fall wildly in love with a horse, a jockey and even a trainer and connections that while flawed, are really just a mirror of society in general.

I think this is a decent betting race still and I've built a 10 Cent and $1 Dollar Superfecta that has some value. Let's get after it!



A Baffert/Lucas Exacta- Is this 1999 or 2012? I like Paynter on top, but more gut feel than anything. Less polished that Dullahan or Union Rags, he's sharp and rested. Quite a class jump, but 4 of the last 5 Belmont Winners were starting their first Triple Crown race. Not singled, but solid value and a legit shot.

Optimizer is me being a bit, optimistic. Trainer Lucas finally broke his year long Graded Stakes slump. This English Channel son should still be running with a 1/4 mile to go. What a story this would make: Lukas, freshly stitched up, in a late career swoon. Storybook.

Dullahan has winner's credentials and I mean him no disrespect, I'm just thinking a bit different today. Roman's training regime, especially the the 4f :45 4/5ths run blow and the 1 mile work is mastercraftsman like. Winless in four tries on dirt.

Union Rags is a nice horse but not a great horse yet. I think he could be a very good handicap division horse and if he comes out of today healthy he still has a late summer and fall to make some noise with. I can't see a win, but just too good to ignore. I like the jock switch as Leparoux didn't seem to get the best of him this year.

Street Life goes for Chad Brown and has lots of talent. Five Sixteen is a gelded son of Invasor. Gut call.

After such a let down, today will just be about what could have been and a bit of fun with who's still left.

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

The Turk would like to thank the fine folks at The Thorfan and the Handicappers Corner for the privilege of throwing darts against the wall, errr, handicapping this weekend's Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.

The Turk loves the handicap division because the richness of information over several seasons that unfolds on the past performances stirs the mathematical intrigue in me. Horse racing for me is a two for one value; I get jazzed by the handicapping and the gambling, especially when I win, but I'm also able to put aside the money side of things and just be a super fan. Like everyone, I dream of the next Triple Crown winner, and I honor the eleven previous winners, but it's the older runners on the dirt and the turf that really do it for me. Last year was a bit lean on returning heroes and it's time that the cupboard gets restocked with superstars older than 3 years old.

There are some great minds on this internet-thingy handicapping: The Handicappers Corner, The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers are great places to go and bounce your own thoughts off of people who are right pretty often. I believe strongly in building handicaps without outside influence, so I really hope you have already built your handicap and you are just using this to gage your own thinking.

I was musing the other night that my own racing year mirrors the handicapping division: I shutdown after the Clark Handicap, I go to the farm (OK Chipolte's and the corner bar) and just chill until early January, I show back up in Florida and start running again, getting my stride up before taking another break in May, only to pick it up around Saratoga/Haskell time and making the strong run back to the Breeders' Cup. Turk buddy, what the heck are you talking about? I'm sayin' that I'm rusty in the handicapping and I've been resting my red pen since the Clark, just like some of these runners have been resting since that same race. If I graphed my ROI, which I do, I'm at my absolute best at the end of the season when the horses are a pretty known quantity and my handicapped skill is at its proverbial "3rd race after a layoff" best. I ain't there yet but let's take a swing at this race anyway.

Gulfstream Park Race 10: The Donn Handicap



One problem with being an internet hack handicapper is exposing your thoughts before you have enough information. Without blogging I'd have my base handicap for the Donn done on Friday night but my bet strategy would be formed once the track conditions and scratches and changes
firmed up. I also like to stare at the tote board for as long as possible to make sure my superfecta investment makes sense. Perhaps the worst feeling I know is "investing" $50 to make $30. The weather at Gulfstream this weekend looks like it has the possibility to continue to be inclement, and I've built my base handicap with a slant towards slop.

So where am I coming from? Flat Out has four progressively decreasing Beyer races in a row. He looked like a horse that needed a break after the Clark Handicap, but many Breeders' Cup combatants put in dull efforts in thier first races back. Trainer Dickey got a turf effort in for God only knows what reason except possibly to increase sire value, or he just couldn't find a better spot in the conditions book. I dunno, seems like an Allowance race over dirt and 1 1/16 would have been better but the point is he got work in and this is his second effort off a 45-180 day layoff. Surely Turk that's a winning angle? 0% for Dickey but only his 5th try. Jock Solis is just a 6% winner at Gulfstream. On the positive side, I liked his slop effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is a bit sharper race wise than some of his cohorts, at some point I have to believe he reverses course and returns to form. This weekend would be a good time!

Dick Dutrow, not my favorite trainer but a solid horseman nonetheless, brings in Trickmeister, 5 wins in 5 starts lifetime at age 5 after beating up on shoulda, coulda, woulda types like Our Dark Knight. Ramon Dominguez and Trainer Dutrow combine for 32% wins and the son of Proud Citizen has been sharpening up over the Gulfstream Park track since New Years Eve. I want to be careful he's not too high on the toteboard but I will cover him in all four spots in my Superfecta.

The presumptive bettor's chalk will be Shackleford. I love the horse but there are red flags; winless since The Preakness, before that an N1X. A loser to Coil at the Haskell by a neck and trounced at the Travers, a loser to Wilburn at the Indiana Derby, only to choke to Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile. I am tickled pink to see him back and excited for Dale Romans and his barn, but I am concerned. He's a tepid B for me, Top Four on expectations and class.

Ruler on Ice, the Belmont winning gelded four year old son of Roman Ruler, is back for popular trainer, Kelley Breen who places Rosie Napravnik up. Also resting since The Clark, some very impressive bullets at 4 and 5 furlongs and a very solid resume on slop may make me reconsider and move him further up the handicap.

Soaring Empire and Redeemed will round out my top six Superfecta candidates. Soaring Empire is more of a one turn specialist and he enters off a disappointing 6th in the Hal's Hope after winning in 2011. I like the 5 YO an awful lot and I am very interested in seeing how he goes over the slop. He does own the best Tomlinson (453) over the muck. Redeemed is Dick Dutrow's other runner who is taking a jump up in class but is worth a look. The one that could make me look stooooopid is Hymn Book, but then again, a son of Arch, ridden by Johnny V for Shug McGaughey is just screaming to not be ignored. You can't cover everyone and you'll go broke tryin; build your handicap and bets with an eye towards the bottom line.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta that approximates my base handicap. If I don't like what I see on the tote board or if more than just Al Khali scratches (I'm going to guess he does)I may retrench to a Trifecta just to keep my action reasonable and in line with where I feel my handicappers touch is right now, which is, well, "1st effort off a 60-180 day layoff".

Also, sorry for the gratuitous $6,000 dollar pile of winnings on my desk. I'm stroking my bad motherf**ker handicapper mojo back up, just like a trainer takes a horse out for a nice blow before a big race. It's my "It's Britney, Bitch" moment.

Great talking to you friends. Enjoy the races, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 21, 2012; The Grade 3 LeCompte at Fair Grounds

Insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Albert Einstein.

Here we go again, another year, another Derby trail. I have this wonderful comfort zone, my happy place, where my ROI is pretty phat and I feel like I actually know what I'm doing, but I just can't leave well enough alone. With the annual return of the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll it's time I figure out these three year olds. We had a rollicking' good time last year and I hope you enjoy our Top 12 polls and the free spirited fun that goes into them. Joe Hirsch would not be amused. What Dear Ol' Mr. Hirsch would respect is the Derby Dozen folks were pretty high on Animal Kingdom last year, well most of them except this idiot bald fella who loved Archarcharch. Pictured above is Mighty Hard Spun, the 2007 winner of the LeComte. Picture by Jane and we thank her for our use.

It's most likely a wet day in the Big Easy tomorrow so keep your eyes on the changing track conditions and the tote board of course. As this is a CDI track, you'll just have to deal with the very lame track website.

Before I go to far I will admit the Turk has been in a real horse racing funk since the Breeders' Cup, which quite honestly, was not the most exciting two days of racing I've been to. Quite possibly the annual lamest excuse of an awards show was conducted last week, the Eclipse Awards, and I'm just appalled at the quality and depth of what is considered worthy champions. I really believe that a horse should have to achieve some sort of "super majority" of votes to win an award, and I don't think there is anything wrong with not having an annual winner if there isn't a deserving nominee, it shouldn't be the lesser of three evils. I was happy for winner Claire Novak, the enterprising young turf writer who is such a champion of good within our sport. Claire won for her journalism chops, her merits, not because of anything else, and Little Turk and I congratulate her. Long story short, I'm starting to feel it again. You can't fake it, and us humans, well were human, good weeks and bad. I thank my friend Steve at Wire Players who unwittingly rekindled my fire by getting the band back together again.

Let's get it on!

Thomas Amoss is a Fair Grounds Hall of Fame member and he has some pretty impressive horse in the outside spot, Shared Property, a gelded son of Scat Daddy. He's got the biggest Tomlinson for the distance (396) and is a Grade 3 winner over the fake stuff already. Amoss wins 33% of the time, in 396 starts, over dirt.

Larry Jones, the Turk's personal favorite dirt horse trainer, brings in Mr. Bowling, a modestly bred son of Istan for breeder/owner Brereton C. Jones, the former Governor of Kentucky and a righteous man who thought it was a good idea to post these in schools. 2 wins on fast dirt, a win at the distance and some very impressive work over the FG track, including a fine :58 and 4/5ths on the 9th of January and a 1:00 and 2/5ths at 5 furlongs and 1:12 4/5ths at 6 furlongs, all in past month. Robbie Albarado up.

You have to respect 22% FG winner Rosie Napravnik when teamed with 29% FG winner Al Stall Jr. The combo works at a 36% win clip at FG on 25 tries. They together bring in Stormy Atlantic's son, Seven Lively Sins. Stall wins off the 61-180 day layoff 38% of the time. Not sure if he's a finisher and looking the other way right now.

One of Zayat's coupled entries is Z Dager, coming in off a sloppy effort at FG at this distance, taking the wire at 14.7 to 1. Assmussen trains the son of Mizzen Mast. The other half of the couple is Dan and Sheila, trained by Pletcher with Johnny V up. Second effort in career, breaking maiden in December at 1 mile at Gulfstream.

Exfactor, an Exchange Rate colt (very handsome by the way), has been very consistent in 4 starts, winning three over the dirt with a a Place in his MSW first try. Won at 6f at FG last time out by a nose and a Grade 3 winner.

An Artie Shiller son, Hammers Terror, looks pretty solid working up at FG for this effort. Trainer Stidham clips along at 25% wins over dirt but only 3% winner in this angle, the 2nd effort off a 45-180 day layoff. That's gotta just be a quirk in the stats? Hard to say, but the numbers are the numbers. :59 3/5ths at 5f and :48 flat at 4f, both at FG, as well as one win at this distance on fast dirt at FG. Tomlinson on wet dirt lowest in the field.

Capetown Devil, a 3 YO gelded son of Cape Town, is also a winner at this distance over this fast dirt at FG on 30 December. 3 for 3 lifetime. Trainer David Carol 0% winner, 4 starts in graded stakes.

So what am I thinking?



I'll string some superfectas and trifectas off of my base handicap; If it gets as sloppy as it appears it may, I'll expect some scratches and we'll just slide the coupled entry of Dan and Sheila and Z Dager up as needed into the top four.

I had a good time tonight handicapping this FG card and blogging about this race. Race 9, The Louisiana Handicap is really my sweet spot, handicap division over a route of dirt, and Mr. Jim Tafel has Fast Alex cranked up already and Pletcher has Alma d' Oro. This will be a fun race, goes to post at 3:55 CT, 4:55 ET.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 San Pasqual at Santa Anita

The Turk and the Little Turk are back in 2012 and we are proud to lead off the Handicappers Corner this year for the good people of The Thorofan.

The Turk loves the handicap division. It's pretty simple really too, I love numbers. I see elegance and beauty when I study a Past Performance. To people who know me the best, and who allow me to bore them the most, they know that I went years working a night shift where I handicapped whole cards, never once watching the physical race, just working the red gel pen only to repeat the process night in and out. It was my crossword puzzle, my Sudoku. It was the Internet that brought me back to racing after a lull in my interest, the Internet and horse racing on satellite television. This time of year, the older horses are either on the farm or they are just coming back to training and quality of the fields can be a bit so-so. This Grade 2 San Pasqual might not pass for an OC $40K N1X at another time in the year, but here we have it. I led off by saying I loved the handicap division because I like to deal with long racing histories and lots of running lines, but this group caught my eye in a bad way: 135 career starts, 4 fast dirt wins. Can you say ugh!

I do love Past Performances but I also love Race Charts. I have all eight days races in the current meet at Santa Anita printed and I'm starting my review of them this weekend. I'll break down the winning post positions, the basic race forms and pacing, and how the tote board rankings compared to the final outcome. I'm not so much interested in races like the San Pasqual as I am about gleaning knowledge about how the races might unfold in February and March and April, and I keep my own statistic. I prefer to gather my own stats because when you just look at the numbers you can sometimes miss the economy of word descriptions of how the race unfolded and the "story behind the story". It's too early to really hang too much on what I'm seeing but chalks are winning 38% of the time in my early review of the first six days of racing. I'm not interested in chalk today, let's see if we can beat em'.

Race 8 SA: The Grade 2 San Pasqual; 1 1/16 miles on Dirt



I'll assemble a reasonably priced $1 Superfecta built around my base handicap. I'll pay attention to the tote board as well as the scratches/changes and I'll either slip back to a Trifecta or pass altogether if there is a key (non-Toss Out) scratch.

I look forward to another great year meeting like minded horse racing fans. The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner has assembled a deep and eclectic collection of writers and handicappers, the best of the best in the blogosphere, providing keen analysis and insight from now until Breeders' Cup. Don't be bashful if you are new to the game, there isn't a blogger or writer who doesn't love to meet his readers, and you are in the right place, The Thorofan is all about the racing fan community.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 25 November 2011: The Clark Handicap Grade 1

The reason I perform post race analysis is to learn what I did right and wrong. A successful bet is a three part process: I handicap the race and create a base handicap. My Base Handicap orders the horses, similar to a morning line, except I assign letter grades, and any horse B- or above is considered for Superfecta. I watch the live tote board right up to the moment I must place the bet. My base handicap is built devoid of considerations of value, underlays or overlays, and I will "reorder" slightly depending on relative values when it makes sense. My Bet Construction consists of several patterns I generally follow, i.e. "box the top five", "single the top horse and box the bottom 4", " Box the top four and include more horses in the 4th spot". I like to build consistent bets and I like to bet consistent amounts. Adding consistency takes away unnecessary thoughts in the minutes leading to post. Those three items are all key to my methods and drive my success and my failures.

I left $5,900 on the table yesterday when I screwed up my bet construction after nailing the base handicap cold. Cold. I had three horses, all listed as "A". Frequently my base handicaps are misunderstood as being an exact order of finish. I'm more jaded and cynical than that! I had three runners (Mission Impazzible, Flat Out and Wise Dan) in Blue and all Three were listed as A. In my base handicap, any one of them could finish in first. That doesn't happen often but as I said, I was torn yesterday and whomever was my chalk, it was a tepid 7-2 at best. But consider this: If there was a Super High Five, I had the top five out of 13 identified and ready to be boxed. All I needed to do yesterday was box my top five and I had the Superfecta. Why didn't I?

I could make excuses and rationalize but the bottom line is I didn't trust in my base handicap enough. I said it in my writeup. I broke one of my key rules, build the handicap and trust the handicap, and bet the handicap. The top 5 boxed for $2 is $240 bet. If you play ten of these and lose all ten you'd be out $2,400, but it only takes one like yesterday to post a 50% ROI. By keeping post race analysis I know I'm clipping away at nearly 4 out of ten Superfectas in the past 6 months. I broke my consistent betting rule and I left a nice score on the table (it also helps to know I am much better from August to November than I am January through July. Why? Better information on the PP's).

Let's analyze and take some positives out of this self imposed self mutilation moment.



The key yesterday was I expected the Breeders' Cup runners to regress. You sharpen the point of the spear to be ready on the day of the $6.0 million dollar race, not the $500,000 race. Those horses were primed for maximum effort on November 5th. They are ready for the farm. On class alone they ran better than most of the field but this is a common angle you can use every November from now until forever, these Breeders' Cup bounce horses will attract money and these horses will fail to fire.

I liked that I backed Mission Impazzible. I questioned pre race where the pace would come from except Will's Wildcat and not surprisingly Will's Wildcat struck the front and Mission Impazzible set up in stalk. I liked Mister Marti Gras, not something I can say has ever happened before. I liked the Ack Ack, I liked where he was at in 2011 and I liked Trainer Block and the cards he's playing that seem to be aces.

That's the handicap in a nutshell: I discounted Prayers for Relief and Headache, I had Ruler on Ice lower than the tote board ranking and I wasn't sold that Flat Out would be any better than he was three weeks ago and he wasn't, while at the same time expecting Mission Impazzible and Mister Marti Gras to hit the winning tickets.

What I got wrong was not betting my time honored method when I'm unsure; I trust my handicap and box five to get four or I box four to get three. I left money on the table. The realist me knows that will happen. The practical me knows that I have to minimize that by following my methods. The competitive me is pissed off because I love nothing more than to beat the game. The blogger in me doesn't mind so much because it gives me an opportunity to write about failure and how analysis and failure grouped together can really drive your forward in the bad times. The sensitive and emotionally fragile me? Doesn't exist, sorry.

Another time honored method I won't fall into is placing Wise Dan on too high a pedestal. Sure on paper he beat a realy nice 13 horse field convincingly, and he's had a nice campaign on lots of surfaces, but I'll look to beat him next time out. That's what the bettor in me does, ignores the hype. The fan in me was pretty thrilled with the race but not thrilled enough to get to into the Horse of the Year discussions: Too many have a minor share in that prize and I get the feeling it will be a popularity vote that deciedes this Eclipse Award, not that they let this idiot internet hack vote.

I am not a computer, I make mistakes. Consistency over a long period of time is the only real way to measure success and failure. The cathartic nature of blogging is that I can admit my failure and move on. I'll let this one go and regroup to make a stack of bills on the next one.

Have fun friends, Happy Thanksgiving, Turk(ey) Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 12, 2011; The Late Pick Three at Churchill Downs including The Mrs. Revere Grade 2

This picture sums up my 2010-2011 Breeders' Cup experience at Churchill Downs over the past two years; it blew by. It really is hard for me to believe that two of these events have come and gone and I'm loathe to compare the two years because that's not really fair with the solar eclipse of a mare, Zenyatta, creating such a huge buzz in the grandstands last year. On Friday the Turk Clan parked in the prepaid lot right next to Roy and Gretchen Jackson, the owners of Barbaro. I asked Mrs. Jackson if it was difficult for her to come back to Churchill Downs and she answered my awkward question kindly and said it was a place of great memories for her. Thank you Mrs. Jackson for being so forthright with me.

I had a decent two days of gambling, more or less break even. My biggest thrill was Amazombie winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint and my lowest low was being "that guy" loudly telling everyone that Court Vision should have been retired only to watch him win the Mile. I had my money on Turallure and I have a real soft spot for the Woodbine Mile and I should have bet the Woodbine Mile Exacta as that paid a sick about of mooola. Long Live Goldikova, she was a real special treat, and her connections were very sporting with the way she was campaigned, a real lesson to some of our American runners.

I swung for the fences with the Super Hi Five on the Breeders' Cup Classic. If I had won, you'd know about it by now. I had tossed Ruler on Ice but I had the other four. We'll revisit that bet more times in my life. I had Game On Dude to win and really thought I had a sleeper after I jumped off Flat Out. I don't know if there was any more Chantal could have milked out of him, but the way Drosselmeyer flew up the outside, I just don't think she saw him or there was no response. Either way, I enjoyed myself and i enjoyed the weekend for what it was: Multiple Grade 1 winning horses with long odds on very good animals in every race.

The Turk is never going to be confused as being gregarious in my social life. I fake it well in the business world but I'm a pretty reserved fella. I loved walking through the paddock, seeing the excitement, feeling the vibe of people digging horse racing (and vodka). I woke up early on Saturday morning and channeled some positive energy, driving to Mt. Washington before winding my way back to Churchill Downs to watch the horses from the fence line on Longfield Avenue graze and be happy.

The glamour of racing cards with multiple graded stakes one after another is just about over the calendar year. I like to handicap in November and December to sharpen up and look for 3 year olds who were lost in the shuffle and will be staying in training for 2012. I just don't give a hoot about 2 year olds and I never will- I'll get excited about them when the long Derby Trail begins again. I'll be handicapping Churchill until after the Clark and then I'll bounce over to Hollywood park, where I have had some really big December's in the past few years.

I've got a Pick Three at Churchill Downs that I've been noodling over which includes the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere. Let's get after it!



I really like Hungry Island's 2011 body of work but the Garden City, while looking like an off the board effort deserves a look;



She came out of traffic in a perfect striking position but it was Winter Memories day. I liked the rally. That said, I'm backing Marketing Mix to win.

Marketing Mix is a Medaglia d'Oro filly out of Instant Thought (Kris S.) The Ontario bred will have grass master Leparoux up for trainer Tom Proctor, who's a 20% turf winner. A solid 2011 Woodbine campaign, a win in an always competitive Wonder Where, a nice Pucker Up G3 at Arlington and a Place to Together in the QE2 Cup G1 at Keeneland. Training sharply and running well, a deadly combination.

Bizzy Caroline breaks from the two post for trainer McPeek with M. Cruz up. A dreadful Del Mar Oaks G1 was followed up by a Place in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland. A bullet on the poly track there last week. 5 of 8 in the money lifetime over turf, 2 wins in 2 starts on CD turf, the Afleet Alex daughter looks like a handful.

Smart Sting is a Smart Strike/Perfect Sting joint, trained by Roger Attfield. I was ecstatic to see Mr. Attfield win his first Breeders' Cup race (could that possibly be i thought, but yes it was) with Perfect Shirl in the Filly and Mare Turf. Wow! Johnny V is up. 5 of 6 in the money in 2011 with 2 turf wins, but winless at the distance and winless in one effort at Churchill. Comes off a 8.5 furlong fake dirt G3 win and a decent Virginia Oaks G3 effort two back.

Sea Level Drive is easy to overlook but I'm intrigued. An N1X winner on poly at Arlington, she ends up in Leigh Bently's barn, runs a well beaten Place to Marketing Mix in the Pucker Up G3 at 25.5-1 odds and follow that up as the 1.3-1 chalk in an N2X win at 8.5 furlongs on the fake stuff at KEE. This Malibu Moon should like the turf here and Trainer Arnold has her back but there is some baggage there: Arnold is a 3% winner on Fake Dirt to Turf crossovers and a 7% stakes race winner.

Hungry Island, Louakhova and New Normal round out my exotic covers. Louakhova has never finished off the board in 7 starts and won in her North American debut at 1 mile on yielding turf in October. I may be foolish not covering her in the P3 but you can't cover everyone friends!

The New Normal has been training well at Woodbine for Trainer Frostad. Friends, if you aren't paying attention to the good horsemanship north of the American border, pay more attention, especially to Woodbine. The Canadians love bringing good horses south in the Winter. A G3 winner as a two year old, she's been training well but this is first race off a long layoff, a break Frostad wins 15% of the time off of.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta for the Mrs. Revere and I will most likely follow my alternative bet selection for the P3, perhaps stretching out to one more horse in the Mrs. Revere, Louakhova and downplaying Smart Sting. Hmmmmm. Things to think about minutes before the gate throws open. By doing your handicapping well in advance, I can focus on bet construction, allowing the tote board to help me make some value judgements.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 28 August 2011: Travers Day Pick Six

Which makes you look thinner, horizontal or vertical stripes? The Ol' Turk doesn't have a clue about fashion but he knows that his horizontal handicapping and betting on the Travers Stakes Pick Six card made him a whole lot phatter in wallet than his "on a diet" vertical bet Pick Six effort.

The handicaps utilized my "layer handicapping" approach and the bets followed my handicaps without deviation. I did my thinking pre-race and that allowed me to sit back, not feel that sense of panic that can arise as post time approaches, and I didn't over think the races. Regardless of the surface I focus squarely on current form, past three race run lines, over time history on surface/at distance/at course, and where and against whom the animal has been running against. On turf I place great emphasis on late turn of foot.

I only feel comfortable talking about how I go about my handicapping. I don't like to read about the races I'm handicapping until after I've completed my handicapping, as I prefer to avoid the hype and bias of the writer whose income is derived from entertaining readers and not necessarily from tossing contestants, some of whom have a better story to tell than a race to run.

A factor I really discount in comparison to contemporaries who I talk shop with is pace. I take into account where each horse will most likely be at the break and then at the top of the stretch, but I do it in broadstrokes and seldom do I predict a winner on the likely pace scenario. OK Turk, WTF does all that mean? It just means I have my own, not that complicated manner of slotting the horses into expected finish. The beauty of handicapping is there is an infinite number of ways to approach the problem but the results are the results and they can be arrived at from many different roads.

Handicapping and betting are two VERY different things. Some do one well and do OK, some do neither well and some get both ends right. Forget what they are doing and ask yourself what you are doing right and wrong. Ripping up the tickets and not taking the time to do a handicapping autopsy is a huge mistake. If you take anything away from my ramblings each each, do this step and you'll see your skills increase.

I do completely ignore morning lines before I handicap and as I said, I do my best to not read about the races I'm handicapping. I treat each race with a fresh mind and no preconceived notions. Track handicappers are pretty sharp folks, some sharper than others, but pretty sharp nonetheless. I like to see where I have runners in relation to the track handicapper. What that does for me is give me feedback, something I lack in the vacuum of kitchen table 'capping. It took me years to believe in myself when I disagreed with the track handicapper. It's those differences of opinion that often lead to my best scores, the contrarian viewpoint.

Let's review and then I'll babble some more.



My list of HITS would be placing Daveron high in the Ballston Spa, not having Sassy Image to high on my board, not betting a Trifecta in the Ballerina, even if I did leave a profit on the table, having Caleb's Posse and Uncle Mo in the exacta that drove my Superfecta and having Justin Phillips higher than other bettors. On my MISSES list would be not valuing Hot Summer and over rating the chances of Precious Soul in the Victory Ride, consistently missing on Stay Thirsty, but my Travers Coil/Shackleford placings was a bust and the Pick Six in general was just a mess.

I put about $540 dollars of capital on table yesterday. I would not have hit that Pick Six if I invested all $540 on the bet or double that. I think the bet is the "bridge too far" for the average bettor and the Pick 3 and 4 are much more achievable targets. That said, the cards always offer juicy exotics that can be hit if you layer the horses properly and you build good bets. I didn't make $6 for every dollar I bet yesterday by just having good handicaps, it was sound betting practices that you learn over time. I felt comfortable that I had the exactas and then I went five and six deep for spots Place and Show and then slimmed back for fourth. That bet structure was what I used twice yesterday and I went as exactly deep as I had color coded pre race.

I hope some of what I'm saying helps someone out there sharpen their own skills. My methods came from reading the works of Brad Free, Steve Crist, Andy Beyer, Tom Ainsile and Steve Davidowitz. I enjoy the articles in American Turf Monthly as well, and I take all this and I have my own, derivative methods. I call them derivative because nothing I do I would call original.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 30, 2011; The Met Mile Grade I at Belmont Park

The Turk is honored this week to be writing this handicap for The ThoroFan, a thoroughbred racing association that gives fans a voice.

The Metropolitan Handicap, better known as the Met Mile, is one of the Ol' Turks favorite races each year. When you live in snow country as I do, Memorial Day is the traditional start of warm weather that will end, well, right about Woodward Stakes Day. Non horse people may have said Labor Day, but passionate folks, people who gravitate to organizations like ThoroFan most likely think all year of the next big stakes day. If you are reading this I'm sure you understand what I'm saying.

This edition of the race, with the mid week news that expected chalk Morning Line was scratched by trainer Zito with a foot issue, is pretty wide open. The eleven runners have a combined one grade one stakes win, that by the handsome five year old son of Speightstown, Haynesfield, who has five Belmont Park wins as well, only one less than the rest of the field combined. We still seek someone to step forward and take the mantle as best older horse in training in America.

It's an oddity to me that races contested at one mile are not the most competitive in the United States, and you only need to look at this year's Kentucky Derby to understand how few horses are true classic distance runners in training right now. 8 furlongs with speed is what we seem to have bred. Imagine the gag fest in a few short weeks when the classic distance challenged amongst us add another 1/4 mile to the effort. Some failed runners over the past few years would have been so much better off just running the mile distance. I still think last years winner of the Met Mile, Quality Road was miscast and should have been a Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile contestant. He should still be in training too but I digress.

This is also the first Breeders' Cup "Win and Your In" race of the year, and the winner receives entry fees and $10,000 in travel expenses, as well as possibly a rub down and peppermints, but let's keep that on the down low, what happens in the stalls at Churchill Downs really should stay at Churchill Downs.

Let's get after it!

Belmont Park Race 10: The Met Mile



The spreadsheet shouldn't necessarily be viewed as the predicted order of finish: I slot the horses into ranges from the win spot to out of the money, and then I take post position, expected pace factors, track surface conditions and build my bet. My preferred betting plan these days is a Pick Three or Pick Four multi race bet, with superfecta and trifecta betting within the races. I like to handicap the races at least the night before and use the time leading up to the windows going closed to adjust my bet based on scratches and changes, trusted paddock reports but most importantly how the track is playing.

It's important to understand the track configuration as well; Belmont Park has big sweeping curves, and outside runners can bring speed into those sweeping corners and explode onto the stretch. Typically Belmont at this distance favors stalkers, but that's a generality and you should look for races the day before and on the undercard at the same distance and see what happens with the speed.

After building my handicap I made a decision to give Haynsefield my tepid chalk as I expect him to bounce back from a dull effort in the Grade III Winchester at Belmont on 30 April.



Haynesfield is six of seven in the money at Belmont. Two races back in the Cigar Mile he posted a career high 111 Beyer in a game second to Jersey Town. This is his second effort off a long layoff. There is no heavy chalk, and with morning line of 7-2, I think it's realistic he'll slip to 4-1 and I'll take stand with him at that price.

After Haynesfield, I see a group of four horses capable of winning and most likely three of the four will be in the money.

Aikenite is a horse I never thought much of as a three year old. A year can make a big difference and I was impressed by his effort in the Grade II Churchill Downs. He's quietly strung three 100+ Beyers together for Trainer Pletcher and this is his third effort in his form cycle and its not inconceivable to run another big race. Currently at 9-2, I see him slipping to 7-2 in my fair odds table.

Caxia Eletronica starts for the 42 time, a staggering number by today's stake race standards. He's a hard knocker, winning 13 times, 27 of 41 in the money, 22 of 34 in the money on fast dirt and 7 of 13 in the money at the distance. Yup, hard knocker. he had a perfect trip in the Winchester and the Repole Stable runner is a four legged Roy Hobbs. A sharp :59 1/5th at 5f a week ago signals continued good health and form.

Tizway ran a solid show in this race last year. He looked wonderful winning the 1 mile Kelso at Belmont last October, and while he hasn't won in 2011, he's been placed in some tough races and ran against some solid competition. He's game and he'll finish well.

I really like the four year old Empire Maker son, Soaring Empire. Training very sharply, the fresh runner hasn't gone to the gate since March. He'll be flying at the end.

After these five there are a few dangerous runners. You can't cover everybody and one thing I've learned as a bettor is to build the handicap and bet the handicap. OK Turk, what do you mean? I handicap the race and then when I go to bet I don't toss in one more runner just to be safe. The next three my handicap are all good enough to win, but I've shaded them down. Only four horses will fill out the superfecta, someone will be on the outside looking in. It's not personal, some of the uncovered I may like, but you have to have conviction and then you got to let it ride.

Tackleberry concerns me: On lasix for the first time, trainer Olivares has been quoted as saying he's breezed with lasix and looked good on it. I expect him to bring the early heavy speed and I'm banking on him faltering out of the top four but all it takes is a neck into a blanket finish to foul the works. A Grade II winner, what the gelding gives up in class he makes up in guts. I like Tackelberry but I'm not covering him here. This is gambling after all.

Ibboyee is a force in state restricted affairs and he's in deeper waters here. I'd like him more if he had at least one win at Belmont or one win at the distance or if his last win wasn't at Finger Lakes.

Kensei has been sharpening nicely for Trainer Assmussen but he has not run well at Belmont with the exception of the Grade II Dwyer in 2009.

I've tossed from consideration Stormy's Majesty, Yawanna Twist and Rodman. All of them have the potential to find the top four spots but you'll drive yourself nuts if you don't take a stand and eliminate from contention some entrants.

The Superfecta bet isn't something you are going to hit every time and if you can't consistently pick winners and identify a group of six horses that the top four are a part of, take a step back and look at the exacta and trifecta. Losing money isn't fun and I only place these bets because I have a multi year history I can draw on that tells me I can do a bit better than break even and occasionally when I get some longer prices into the top four I can hit a signer. It's not a bet to chase with heavy chalk and smallish fields. The 10 cent variety will give newcomers to the bet and casual bettors a chance to be competitive without risking the mortgage money. Bet responsibly.

Have fun with this friends and remember true spirit of Memorial Day. I appreciate the opportunity to handicap for the ThoroFan and I thank the wonderful Sarah K. Andrew for use of the fantastic picture of Haynesfield.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 14 May 2011: BEL Race 9: The Peter Pan Grade 2

Ramon Dominguez! You know Ramon helped make my wallet over $800 thicker this afternoon with his win on Alternation in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, the key single in my Superfecta win.

I betcha Ramon carries a wallet; it's the one that says bad mother f**ker on it! I reckon I digressed, anyway....

As a handicapper I get a sense of when the seas are parting. Don't get me wrong though, that is no sure sign of dollar bills being handed my way, but that feeling underlies what I call pattern recognition. On paper, The Peter Pan unfolded for me in terms of class and pace. While I didn't pick the order 1-10 perfectly, I did clearly see the line between the top four and everyone else, and thats as close to clarity as you get in this game.

The Arkansas Derby to me has become one of the key dirt races of every season and Oaklawn Park seems to be a great place to launch your campaign. Alternation took defeat in Arkansas, added some sharp work and gave a nice final kick to win today.

BEL Race 9: The Peter Pan Grade 2



The gambling part of the day involved singling Alternation. Sometimes you just have to take a stand and thats how strongly I felt about the quality of the Arkansas Derby field and how ready I thought this colt was today for conditioner Von Hemel. The rest of the bet just involved making the cut off just below my sixth favorite, leaving five horses in the red, four horses when Isn't He Perfect scratched.

The Turk is a pretty happy cigar smokin', bourbon drinking bald fella right now. The Little Turk's U-11 Soccer team won both games today and made the Championship game in the tournament which is tomorrow, yet I still found time to handicap, bet and take down a superfecta. Life is good.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 30, 2011: The Holy Bull Grade III at Gulfstream

That handsome fella who is enjoying his retirement is none other than the 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull. A Travers Stakes, Woodward Stakes, a Florida Derby and a Haskell is often enough to win such awards. Injured in the Donn Handicap as a 4 YO, he went on to become an influential sire to such notables as Giacomo and Macho Uno, sire of today's contestant, Mucho Macho Man.

The Turk enjoyed handicapping this race as we have a nice field size of nine and an interesting collection of runners with parity between most of them and a clear cut chalk difficult to name. Early on I decided I'd go Superfecta hunting and not worry about who will win exclusively. Let's get after it!

Gulfstream Park Race 10 The Grade III Holy Bull: Post Time 5:26 ET



As always, sit down and check the weather, scratches and changes and track condition. Skip the BS articles at DRF and on the internet and by all means ignore the morning lines: Take a mind of freshness into the handicapping process, unfettered by others opinions, there is time for that later.

The weather should be fine, with a chance of light rain mid day, and the track should be fast.

Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man will attract alot of betting dollars and should be 1-2 with the bettors. As its early in the 3 YO season, all of the runners have questions to answer, so when you scan the PPs the picture won't always be crystal clear and that is where experience and luck help. Gourmet Dinner laid an egg last time out, going to plastic in the Grade ICash Call Futurity. Before that he was 4 of 4 in the money on dirt with three wins and already $869,660 in purse money fueled by the win in the Delta Downs Jackpot Grade III.

Mucho Macho Man, son of Macho Uno and Grandson of Holy Bull, is off after a long layoff, something Trainer Kathy Ritvo didn't do well at all over past year, and she also seeks to erase the 0% Graded Stake stat she is carting around. On a four race progression of improving Beyers and off a 99 BSF effort at 1 1/8 on fast dirt at the Big A. Training very well at GP beating 120 horses over 3 workouts at 5f, all around :59 even. Only 1 win to show for 5 efforts. I think he is very strong but want to see an effort today.

Dialed In may be the best of the bunch but he's only making his second start for Trainer Zito. The son of Mineshaft has been working very strong at 4F .

I'm backing Black N Beauty as my tepid chalk. Trainer Dale Romans brings the Devil His Due sired runner in fresh off a 1 mile winning effort at GP on 7 January and I'm taking a leap of faith regarding where he is in his form compared to the others.

I built a superfecta matrix and sufficiently covered how I think the race could unfold. I expect Black N Beauty will strike the lead at some point, perhaps early, and it will come down to if the stalkers can overtake. I backed Major Gain Printing Press and Leave of Absence for minor awards and off all of them I feel like I'm discounting Printing Press at my possible peril. I can't promise I won't cover Printing Press and 3 and 4 and to keep cost similar, drop someone else along the way.

Have fun with it, Turk Out! Handheld Turk is handicapping the race as well and the results will be up for him in the post race analysis.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day December 26, 2010; The Santa Anita Pick Three and the Malibu Grade I

This Turk loves this time of the year; from Thanksgiving until New Years Day I just feel at peace with the world, in tune with my friends and family, and renewed to start the grind of another year. Life's grind does get me down, as this Turk works his arse off, and just before Christmas I invoked the time honored tradition of retail therapy and I bought myself a Mac Mini.

I liked the idea of a small computer attached to my audio-visual gear for a long time, a perfect place for streaming and storing. The lure of a full sized HDMI plug that would connect right into my TV was too much to pass up. With that, I took my HRTV Subscription and I had graduated from watching the races on my laptop to having it on the big screen with fantastic sound. I'm not a tech guy but I love when I add some modernity to my life and it just fits in with me and not the other way around.

This Turk could barely contain himself on Sunday when I settled in with the Santa Anita opening day Past Performances. I had the all Graded Stakes Pick Three targeted for handicapping, which I did, but I had two serious problems; the surfaces and the competition. The dirt track not only is brand new, but it was sealed and I had no idea what it would be like at show time. The turf Sir Beaufort I suspected would end up in the dirt, and then the real killer was my handicap, it was very very chalky. Sidney's Candy, Twirling Candy, Switch, was there really any doubt? Just a little, not much.

So what to do? Without much fanfare I dumped the Pick Three idea after seeing the scratches flow in and the turf races moved the main track. In response I spent my budgeted $24 on The Malibu Superfecta and I was locked in solid, dropping Noble's Promise to 5th and nailing the other four for a cool $445.70.

Santa Anita December 26, 2010; Race 6-7-8



The track was incredibly fast, and Trainer Baffert thought it was a full second fast. Regardless, Switch was very impressive and took Spectacular Bid's name down off the track record. Sidney's Candy continues to impress and is the perfect example of why you shouldn't just judge three year olds based solely on the Triple Crown races. Sidney's Candy also reminds us of why sound three year olds that get retired aren't getting a fair shake to become the best they can be.

I took my $24 and boxed my base handicap for the Malibu. I had Twirling Candy/Alcindor at the top and Alcindor had the lead at the 1/2 only to have to dig in and finish exotically. Noble's Promise, the bettors top choice, lacked a kick when a kick was required. Smiling Tiger continues to impress and Twirling Candy was very game. The sprinters are well represented heading into 2011.

The bet was only possible because of the handicap. I believe, and say here regularly, that if you do your homework and build your handicaps, you'll be prepared to be nimble when it's time to actually hand money over at the window. It takes discipline, but handicap the races in advance and not the 30 minutes in between races and you will add crispness to your betting and be a clear headed gambling fool like the hard core players that read the Turk.

Have Fun, Turk Out!