The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Wise Dan at Churchill Downs

Defending Champ Pleuven: Photo by Wendy Wooley/Equisport Photos

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog and this week's challenge, The Wise Dan, a Grade 2 affair over a route of grass at Churchill Downs.

Churchill Downs racing under the lights, especially when I can watch live, is something I find very enjoyable as a fan.  It's late enough where the sun is setting, I can unwind with an adult beverage, perhaps a cigar, and bet the ponies without giving up a beautiful afternoon day.  When you live in the Northern snow belt, each weekend when the temperature is above 70 degrees is treated like a perishable commodity and I don't have too many I can just give away to this sport, with its small fields, high takeout and lack of star talent.  I'm a fan but this sport doesn't make it easy at all.

This race, at 1 1/16 miles on Stephen Foster Handicap day, has eight horses in it, average age 5.6 years old, with the top money earning, Blofeld, going over grass for the first time in his 5 years.  We do have last year's edition Champion, Pleuven (FR) as well as Place and the Show horse from last year, Thatcher Street and Kasaqui (Arg), yes Kasaqui that gave the great Mondaliste everything he could handle in the Arlington Million.

Let's get after this!



I could make this blog post really short and just say the same finish from the 2016 edition but I don't think I'd be that wrong either.

Pleuven (Fr) is a six year old gelding, trained by Phillip Sims with Lanerie up.  4 of 4 in the money over CD turf, 5 of 6 in the money at the distance and 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass.  He'll run just off the pace most likely and close late.

Thatcher Street is another local who will go late with one run.  The six year old gelded son of Kentucky Derby Winner Street Sense, has Leparoux up for Trainer Ian Wilkes.  7 of 8 in the money at the distance, 15 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass and 8 of 8 lifetime in the money over CD grass.

Kasaqui (Arg) also has a late turn of foot.  The 7 YO comes in off a nice effort in the Turf Classic with a very nice late move that fell short.  He's a threat to win the race and at 6-1 or better he offers great value.



Chocolate Ride is a 7 Yo gelded son of the great sire Candy Ride (Arg). 4 wins in 7 starts at the distance and 9 wins in 18 starts over grass.  Trainer Brad Cox wins 31% of the time on Won Last Start and he's 33% over Turf.  He should be the pace with Security Risk.

Security Risk,  a 5 YO War Front, trained by Shug McGaughey and with John Velazquez up, is a steady, front of the pack style horse.  He will have a lot of closers after him and Chocolate Ride as they try to steal the race from the front.  It happens, but i'm thinking not this race.

I'm tossing Bondurant, Conquest Panthera and Blofeld at my own peril.  Bondurant isn't a bad play, but he's winless in 2017, winless at the distance, and I'm not sure how sharp he is.  Blofeld tries dirt for the first time.  Trainer George Arnold is 7% on First Time Turf.  I love a Quality Road son but I'm passing.  Conquest Panthera should be better than the 5 YO gelding is.  Trained by Mark Casse for The Ramsey's.

I'm not going to overthink this too much.  I'll be playing a card with 7-3 OVER 7-3-4-5-1 OVER 7-3-4-5-1.  A $2 Tri would cost $48.    A variation would be 7 OVER 3-4-5-1 OVER 3-4-5-, a $24 investment.

Whatever you do, bet responsibly and have fun.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The P3 at Saratoga featuring The Fourstardave

My handicapper's holiday is over. I wasn't off blogging fashion and I didn't stop handicapping, but I needed a break. Every summer I usually take some time off, typically in July, to clear my mind and to recharge my batteries for the second half of the racing season. I went about 2 weeks longer than usual this year, as first my day job had me doing some difficult travel, screwing up my Friday night handicapping sessions, and also I took a summer course working on my MBA and a 4 CR course in eight weeks can suck the life out of you. I think it's important to put the red pen down every now and then and just watch the races without any betting action. It helps me to hit the reset button and take a fresher eye to what I'm doing.

From a handicapping ROI perspective, I don't fare well at Del Mar or Saratoga. That's not opinion, purely fact from the statistics that I keep to help me understand my racetrack investments. I tend to fare better on turf than the dirt at SAR, and I just flatly refuse to play the horrible fake dirt surface at Del Mar. For my first blogging assignment back I'm looking at the Pick 3 that features the Fourstardave.  Fourstardave, the Sultan of Saratoga.  My first summer at the Spa, when I came as a 19 year old, was 1986.  A year later the Sultan arrived and began his 7 year run of excellence.  Rest in Peace.  The Fourstardave is the logical place for me to start my Pick Three preparations, and the challenge will be finding value in the Pick 3 if Wise Dan wins the race at 3-5 or less. Thanks to Alysse Jacobs for the use of her picture. 

Wise Dan is the first older horse since Zenyatta to go on such a streak of dominance.  He enters today's racing with 8 wins in 9 turf starts, winning on a yielding surface at 128 pounds in the Firecracker at CD.  He'll be wearing 129 pounds today over a track that most likely isn't firm.  To lose would create a whole heck of alot of Pick 3 value.  It seems a worthy endeavor.  Let's get after this!



You guessed it: This P# isn't worth playing for me unless I can have a bit of fun and swing at the fences. The only glimmer of a chance on paper is the 129 pounds Wise Dan carries, 11 pounds more than Za Approval and 12 more than King Kressa. I typically don't get a hoot about weight differences but the spread is pretty big and Wise Dan will cross over less than firm conditions and most likely have to chase King Kressa into the final 1/16. I'm hanging my hat on that battle, with Za Approval, the Clement trained, Lezcano ridden turf winner of 6 races. I'll cover King Kressa and Za Approval and most likely not cover Wise Dan as we are taking a feast or famine approach.


Race 8, an N1X $87,000 allowance race, is seemingly wide open, but on closer examination a few her bubble to the top.  Michael Maker's Leadem in Ken, with Castellano up, makes his third start, winning a 1 Mile on CD turf last time out.  Maker's a 24% turf winner with 503 starts and wins 30% of his Won Last Start races on 272 tries. 

Abraham, who made mild buzz on the Triple Crown trail, is a Pletcher/Velazquez entrant who hasn't won since February and makes first turf try.  Nice :47 2/5th turf work on August 5th.  Classy son of Distorted Humor for Winstar, Pletcher wins 16% of first turf situations.

Bill Mott's got a first time with trainer (24%) (1st turf 10%) runner with Ghost Hunter.  Darley Stables injects lasik into Valid for the first time in Valid, bred by the late Edward P. Evans.  McLaughlin is also a 10% winner with first turf.

Race 9, the Auntie Mame, is a stakes race for 3 YO fillies who have never blah blah blah.  A Bona Venture runner, Summer of Fun, has personal appeal for this Western New Yorker. 5 of 5 in the money on turf, I like this gal's chances.

Silsita is a heavy hitter who flamed out in the Kentucky Oaks against some really talented runners.  This seems like a very good spot for the winner of the My Princess Jess three weeks ago.

Bella Castani, in Lael Stables silks, trained by Clement, is a daughter of Big Brown and 3 of 4 in the money over turf. 

I like both Effie Ticket and Praia to both make good late turns of foot. 

So what do we have for the pick three?




I plan on enjoying the Wise Dan run regardless if he wins or loses, but I think I'm positioned well if he was to be upset. As a gambler, that's a situation I look for every week.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Pick 4 on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill Downs

This Turk hasn't enjoyed a Triple Crown season as much as I enjoyed this years since Street Sense, Curlin and Rags to Riches thrilled me in 2007. I don't feel qualified to compare one crop of three year olds to another, but as a fan I'm more than qualified to talk about my relative excitement level, and amidst all the turmoil that still envelops horse racing, I'm ever the optimist that the bottom was reached and a brighter future is ahead.

One of the things I look forward to after the Triple Crown madness subsides is to see which runners, written off on the trail as not good enough, or worse, not even good enough to be on it, come into their own. My favorite horses are always the ones that run year after year until they retire, hopefully sound. I still await the next Lava Man, Einstein, Commentator, Brass Hat, Presious Passion to name a few. Race's like today's Fleur De Lis Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap is where those hard knockin' veteran horses strut their stuff, which makes today must see TV for me. Pictured above is Royal Delta, Alabama, Black Eyed Susan and Breeders' Cup Distaff champion. With those credentials, you had me neigh.

I love night racing on Saturday nights. I think it's a great way in the summer time to cater to the fans, not only at the track (because who wants to sit in 90 degree weather) but also the fans at home. I plan on being fully engaged with this card, and quite frankly, this is a Fathers Day gift, the time on a Saturday to watch these races, that I'm happy to accept.

While I may bet vertically within these races, horizontal was today's blog focus. I settled on the Pick 4, a bet that can be assembled within the confines of my personal bet limits, as opposed to the Pick 6, a speciality form of handicapping and betting that I don't have the skill with quite frankly. Know thy self: I'm less of a winner picker and more of a race talent evaluator. I excel at lumping the horses into groups, and those groups make up the potential winners, potential exotics and the toss outs. Know thy self: I'm more of a vertical bettor, I'm more skilled at it and my ROI is much higher with -ecta's than it is with P3/P4's. What makes us better as gamblers? Practice.

Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Races 5-6-7-8: The All Graded Stakes Pick Four



In Race 5, The Matt Winn, Right to Vote is the most likely chalk on the tote board but I have Stealcase as mine: This Lawyer Ron (with saddness I think of the too few Lawyer Ron's)son lost by a neck to Belmont's Place horse, Paynter two back and comes in off a sharp CD 1 mile effort while driving. This is the race I'm not taking chaces with, overcovering slightly and I have Neck n' Neck and Macho Macho as well and we'll hope the longest odds take it.

The Grade 3 Regret has some really nice young gal's going at it. Michael Matz has Colonial Flag, with Leparoux up, looking for third straight Turf win. She has a very wicked late turn of foot and look for her to stalk.

Coup, an Augustin Stable runner, owned by Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member, Mr. George Strawbridge, comes off an impressive win in The Hilltop on Preakness Day. Very curious how she responds today.

Centre Court and Treasured Up represent value here.

In the Fleur De Lis, I would be inclined to single Royal Delta, and I trust that Mott would not have entered her her if she wasn't sharp, but I hate the UAE bounce, I've been burned many times, and I'd just rather be safe. Afleeting Lady is my choice to pull the upset: a sharp :47 1/5th 4f work this week and enters off n3X effort. 5 of 6 in the Money at CD. I reckon if i wanted to really be safe I'd put St. John's River in, but you can't cover everyone.

And finally, the handicap division, and Wise Dan, a monster late in the season with a freakish Clark run and a huge Ben Ali Beyer last out. Only one win on Dirt, but it is here at CD. Fort Larned is my choice to pull the upset and add value. The four year old lost by a head to Successful Dan last time out, a horse that is expected to be scratched here.

I'd be remiss to not wish a Happy Father's Day to my Father, big Turk.



Big Turk has a big heart, even if it has a mechanical ticker keeping time now. He has always been my moral compass, enforced by hands bigger than boxing mitts. Happy Father's Day Pops.

I'd also like to wish my Father in Law a Happy Father's Day. He's a Saint for many reasons.

The greatest blessing in the world (in my humble opinion) is to be a parent. The Little Turk is a wonderful young man and makes me very proud to be his father.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 25 November 2011: The Clark Handicap Grade 1

The reason I perform post race analysis is to learn what I did right and wrong. A successful bet is a three part process: I handicap the race and create a base handicap. My Base Handicap orders the horses, similar to a morning line, except I assign letter grades, and any horse B- or above is considered for Superfecta. I watch the live tote board right up to the moment I must place the bet. My base handicap is built devoid of considerations of value, underlays or overlays, and I will "reorder" slightly depending on relative values when it makes sense. My Bet Construction consists of several patterns I generally follow, i.e. "box the top five", "single the top horse and box the bottom 4", " Box the top four and include more horses in the 4th spot". I like to build consistent bets and I like to bet consistent amounts. Adding consistency takes away unnecessary thoughts in the minutes leading to post. Those three items are all key to my methods and drive my success and my failures.

I left $5,900 on the table yesterday when I screwed up my bet construction after nailing the base handicap cold. Cold. I had three horses, all listed as "A". Frequently my base handicaps are misunderstood as being an exact order of finish. I'm more jaded and cynical than that! I had three runners (Mission Impazzible, Flat Out and Wise Dan) in Blue and all Three were listed as A. In my base handicap, any one of them could finish in first. That doesn't happen often but as I said, I was torn yesterday and whomever was my chalk, it was a tepid 7-2 at best. But consider this: If there was a Super High Five, I had the top five out of 13 identified and ready to be boxed. All I needed to do yesterday was box my top five and I had the Superfecta. Why didn't I?

I could make excuses and rationalize but the bottom line is I didn't trust in my base handicap enough. I said it in my writeup. I broke one of my key rules, build the handicap and trust the handicap, and bet the handicap. The top 5 boxed for $2 is $240 bet. If you play ten of these and lose all ten you'd be out $2,400, but it only takes one like yesterday to post a 50% ROI. By keeping post race analysis I know I'm clipping away at nearly 4 out of ten Superfectas in the past 6 months. I broke my consistent betting rule and I left a nice score on the table (it also helps to know I am much better from August to November than I am January through July. Why? Better information on the PP's).

Let's analyze and take some positives out of this self imposed self mutilation moment.



The key yesterday was I expected the Breeders' Cup runners to regress. You sharpen the point of the spear to be ready on the day of the $6.0 million dollar race, not the $500,000 race. Those horses were primed for maximum effort on November 5th. They are ready for the farm. On class alone they ran better than most of the field but this is a common angle you can use every November from now until forever, these Breeders' Cup bounce horses will attract money and these horses will fail to fire.

I liked that I backed Mission Impazzible. I questioned pre race where the pace would come from except Will's Wildcat and not surprisingly Will's Wildcat struck the front and Mission Impazzible set up in stalk. I liked Mister Marti Gras, not something I can say has ever happened before. I liked the Ack Ack, I liked where he was at in 2011 and I liked Trainer Block and the cards he's playing that seem to be aces.

That's the handicap in a nutshell: I discounted Prayers for Relief and Headache, I had Ruler on Ice lower than the tote board ranking and I wasn't sold that Flat Out would be any better than he was three weeks ago and he wasn't, while at the same time expecting Mission Impazzible and Mister Marti Gras to hit the winning tickets.

What I got wrong was not betting my time honored method when I'm unsure; I trust my handicap and box five to get four or I box four to get three. I left money on the table. The realist me knows that will happen. The practical me knows that I have to minimize that by following my methods. The competitive me is pissed off because I love nothing more than to beat the game. The blogger in me doesn't mind so much because it gives me an opportunity to write about failure and how analysis and failure grouped together can really drive your forward in the bad times. The sensitive and emotionally fragile me? Doesn't exist, sorry.

Another time honored method I won't fall into is placing Wise Dan on too high a pedestal. Sure on paper he beat a realy nice 13 horse field convincingly, and he's had a nice campaign on lots of surfaces, but I'll look to beat him next time out. That's what the bettor in me does, ignores the hype. The fan in me was pretty thrilled with the race but not thrilled enough to get to into the Horse of the Year discussions: Too many have a minor share in that prize and I get the feeling it will be a popularity vote that deciedes this Eclipse Award, not that they let this idiot internet hack vote.

I am not a computer, I make mistakes. Consistency over a long period of time is the only real way to measure success and failure. The cathartic nature of blogging is that I can admit my failure and move on. I'll let this one go and regroup to make a stack of bills on the next one.

Have fun friends, Happy Thanksgiving, Turk(ey) Out!