An attempt to help explain the mysteries and magic that are part and parcel of 'probation'.
Friday, 24 March 2023
Some Sound Advice
Tuesday, 21 March 2023
A Toxic Met
Sunday, 26 February 2023
Prison Numbers To Rocket
With Labour deciding to enter into a Dutch auction with the Tories as to who is going to be tougher on criminals in the lead-up to the next general election, news comes in from the statisticians as to likely future incarceration rates. It has to be remembered that the Tories often like to portray any new prisons as 'job opportunities' for any intended location and increasingly are doing their best to keep more people inside and for longer as a way to 'protect the public'. This from Russell Webster neatly summarises the likely direction of travel:-
Our Prison Population Could Be Over 100,000 by 2027Projections
The latest official prison population projections published yesterday (23 February 2023) by the Ministry of Justice and the Office for National Statistics demonstrate the uncertainties at the heart of our criminal justice system. The headline figures are confusing, to say the least:
- The prison population is projected to increase, with a central estimate of 94,400 by March 2025
- The estimate for two years later, March 2027, is within a huge range of 93,100 to 106,300.
In the first few years of the projection period, the projected rise in the prison population is primarily due to an increase in receptions of determinate sentenced offenders. This is because courts are assumed to dispose of more cases than they receive in order to clear the additional trial backlog that arose during COVID-19 restrictions and the Criminal Bar Association strike action.
The total prison population is projected to continue to increase over the full projection period. This is partly driven by rising police officer numbers which are expected to increase charge volumes and therefore increase the future prison population.
There are several sources of uncertainty for long-term prison population, particularly around future levels of demand entering the Criminal Justice System (CJS).
The publication presents three prison population projections to assess the impact of differing potential upstream demand scenarios. All three projections reflect what the statisticians call “plausible scenarios for future police and prosecutorial activity”. All three scenarios take account of expected increases in police officer numbers and project higher long-term prison demand, but vary factors such as charges per police officer, the crime mix entering the courts, and average custodial sentence lengths. You can see how the different projections unfold in the chart reproduced from the report below.
Scenarios
The scenarios are not intended to reflect the full range of demand risk for the CJS, but rather to estimate the plausible range of police and prosecutorial activity – a large driver of future prison demand over the mid to long-term. The statisticians are keen to emphasise that the projections do not represent the highest and lowest possible prison demand or the full range of uncertainty surrounding the projections.
There are several additional sources of uncertainty including the speed with which the CJS recovers from the pandemic – Crown Court backlogs remain very high. Other uncertainties relate to future crime types (in particular which types of crime police prioritise) and the volumes of crime and how many are processed through the CJS.
The plethora of recent policy changes (many of which relate to extending maximum sentence times and reducing the likelihood of parole) have not all yet been implemented and therefore make it hard for statisticians to model their impact on prison numbers.
The three scenarios which result in this very imprecise projection of the prison population being between 93,100 to 106,300 by March 2027 are:
High upstream demand – police and CPS crime mix and charges per officer start to return to pre-COVID (2019) levels, resulting in a large increase in the volume of cases coming into court. Additionally, Average Custodial Sentence Lengths (ACSL) return to 2019 levels.
Low upstream demand – police and CPS crime mix and charges per officer stay at lower levels observed in 2021 and do not return to pre-COVID behaviour. Similarly, ACSLs reflect 2021 levels.
Central upstream demand – crime mix remains as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. While there are some increases in charges per officer, it remains below pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, ACSLs reflect levels observed from 2019 to 2021.When trying to make sense of these very large rises in our prison population (there were 83,687 people in prison last Friday 17 February, itself a jump of 1149 people in the previous four week period), it is important to remember that, along with Scotland, England & Wales already incarcerates a large proportion of its citizens than any other Western European country.
Saturday, 18 February 2023
'Go No Comment'
I wasn't going to publish anything today, but I've changed my mind. In recent years it's become fashionable to talk about the need to recruit new entrants with 'lived experience' which is basically code for those with an offending history. Well, the following that came in yesterday should therefore be of interest and concern to us all:-
I find it ironic that the police are still charged with vetting. Given that their own processes have failed to stop rapists, domestic abusers, thugs and voyeurs joining various forces….
Looking around now it’s hard to see anything of value in the CJS. Prison numbers remain far too high, racism is endemic, politicians make appalling decisions and rehabilitation feels like a thing from the distant past. Voluntary groups are underfunded, accommodation is dreadful, benefits are pernicious and even now people are released from prison homeless. It doesn’t really take a great leap to see why people continue to offend. Alongside this the cost of living keeps rising and the rich simply peel off more and more. The Labour Party is equally clueless. As I cast my gaze around I often ponder what life would have been like if I had been born in the 1990s rather than the1960s.And that’s a real problem. Why would anyone tell you anything? If I was unfortunate enough to have to see an officer I would never tell the truth. Contrast that with my experience when I first started. What surprised me was I was how willing people were to tell me all sorts of things that were really very private and personal. It took me ages to cotton on that they actually trusted the probation service in ways that they didn’t trust the police or the prison service.
Friday, 10 February 2023
MoJ Dissembling? Surely Not!
“Hugely significant.” That was the description given by Antonia Romeo, the most senior civil servant at the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), to the decline in reoffending rates in England and Wales over the past ten years. Among adults, they have fallen from 30 per cent in 2010-11 to 24 per cent in 2020-21. For those aged 10 to 17, the drop has been even more marked, down from 40.9 per cent to 31.2 per cent.
Giving evidence at the Commons Justice Committee, Romeo suggested that the reduction was because officials in her department had done “a lot of work…on reoffending and what works to get people not to reoffend any more." She said: “This is getting them into a job and accommodation, managing the Through the Gate process, and getting them off substance misuse.”
The Justice Secretary Dominic Raab has been even more effusive. When figures were published last October showing a two percentage point drop in reoffending levels in 12 months he tweeted: “This shows that our investment in drug rehab, training in prisons and offender employment is working and helping make our streets safer.”
Does it show that? Look closely at what reoffending rates really measure and it’s clear that the reduction is nothing to boast about - it’s simply a reflection of a wider failure to deliver justice. That’s because the reoffending rate is a misleading term. It is not worked out by counting what proportion of offenders commit a further crime; it’s based on how many are caught and sanctioned.
Tracking the cohort
The MoJ calculates it like this. Every three months it adds up the number of people who within that period have been: cautioned, reprimanded or issued with an official warning by police; given a non-custodial sentence at court, such as a fine or community order; released after serving a prison sentence. This ‘cohort’ of offenders is then tracked.
If, in the following 12 months, anyone in the cohort commits an offence for which they are convicted, cautioned or given a police warning they are officially classed as a reoffender. The penalty or conviction counts only if it’s issued within the initial 12 months or a six-month period afterwards. Some offences, like breaches of court orders, don't count. The number of reoffenders is then divided by the overall number of offenders in the cohort to produce the reoffending rate.
So, the reoffending rate is really the re-conviction or re-cautioning rate. It all depends on the offender being arrested and given a police warning or successfully prosecuted in the courts. As such, reoffending rates vary according to the effectiveness of the 43 police forces, the Crown Prosecution Service and the criminal courts.
But don’t take my word for it - even the MoJ acknowledges that the methods are imprecise and understate the reality of reoffending. “Measuring true reoffending is difficult,” says the department’s ‘Guide to Proven Reoffending’, issued in 2017.
“Official records are taken from either the police or courts, but they will underestimate the true level of reoffending because only a proportion of crime is detected and sanctioned and not all crimes and sanctions are recorded on one central system. Other methods of measuring reoffending, such as self-report studies, are likely to also underestimate the rate,” the document says.
Detections and sanctions
To understand the extent to which reoffending rates may have been affected by the performance of police, prosecutors and the courts, just look at overall levels of crime detections and sanctions compiled by the Home Office as part of their 'outcome' figures.
The methods changed in 2014-15, so that’s the earliest comparable date. That year, 15.5 per cent of crimes recorded by police led to a suspect being charged or summonsed to appear in court. A further 4.6 per cent resulted in a formal out-of-court disposal, such as a caution.
Over the next seven years, as has been well documented, the charge and caution rate plummeted. In the 12 months to the end of September 2022 it was 5.5 per cent and 1 per cent respectively.
So, over a seven-year period there was a 3.6 percentage point reduction in caution rates and a 10 percentage point decrease in charging levels. Without a charge, of course, there can’t be a conviction, so convictions, as a proportion of all crimes, will also have fallen substantially.
You can probably see where this is heading. With such a dramatic decline in cautioning and charging rates, it’s no surprise that reoffending levels (measuring the proportion of offenders who have been cautioned or convicted again) have fallen too. In 2014-15, the MoJ calculated the overall reoffending rate to be 30 per cent. The latest figures, covering a cohort of offenders in January to March 2021 who were tracked for the following 12 months, show the rate fell to 24.3 per cent, a 5.7 percentage point reduction in reoffending.
Timeliness is also a factor. Criminal cases are taking longer to resolve because of record court backlogs which started growing in 2019. It takes around 180 days, on average, for an offence to be dealt with by magistrates compared with 150 days in 2014-15. For Crown Court cases, it’s gone up from 250 to 350 days. That means an increasing number of offenders who committed a further crime will not have been counted for the purposes of the reoffending data because they weren’t convicted within 12 months or the six month follow-up period.
Bleak reality
If overall charge and cautioning rates had been broadly stable, then this “hugely significant” reduction in reoffending rates, as the permanent secretary put it, would indeed be hugely significant. It would suggest that external factors, such as improvements in rehabilitation, employment and accommodation support, were playing a part - but there is no evidence that they have. The evidence simply, and bleakly, points to the fact that fewer offenders are being caught and brought to justice, while delays in the criminal justice system are masking some reoffending that would previously have been included.
It’s time ministers and officials acknowledged this. They should start by re-labelling ‘reoffending’ rates to avoid confusion and misinterpretation: they are re-conviction and re-cautioning rates. Better still, they should look for an alternative way to measure the true level of reoffending through a combination of anonymous surveys of offenders, information from probation staff, arrest figures, and re-caution and re-conviction data, adjusted to take account of overall caution and charging trends.
The fall in reoffending rates is, sadly, not the ray of light the Ministry of Justice was hoping for and no one should be misled into thinking that it is.
PS: Isn't it odd that for the purposes of reoffending data, an offender's time in prison doesn't count? The official reoffending clock starts on release from jail or at the moment the court orders an offender to serve a sentence in the community. So, when comparisons are made between reoffending rates for those who've served prison sentences and people given community penalties they never take account of the time spent in custody. That doesn't seem right. One of the benefits of prison is that while locked up a person is not committing crimes in the community: surely the reoffending figures should reflect that.
Friday, 20 January 2023
The Case For Strong Leadership
This week, I am angry. Angry as another high-profile case of a police officer abusing his position to hurt women in such a calculated way, darkens the news. I won’t repeat the sentiments of my colleagues. David Carrick was a criminal with a warrant card. But it’s easy to say he wasn’t one of us. He was. And that’s why it feels so shameful that he was free to abuse women for so long without the alarm bells being heard. At times like this, I find myself awake at night wondering how we can strengthen our approach, stopping the likes of PC Carrick from the very moment an allegation is made.
Today – just as the day I joined – I’m humbled by the passion, bravery and dedication that flows through this unique profession. But it can be tempting to believe that those who choose a career in policing are inherently altruistic, but the reality is that officers and staff are shaped by the society we all live in. That’s why vetting and constant vigilance will always be required of us, and complacency and the ‘benefit of doubt’ must be confined to our history. Policing, at its finest, reflects the very best of society and works with the tacit consent of the communities we serve.
A big part of this conversation is culture. If people believe that a behaviour is tolerated, an individual protected or victim or witness marginalised, it will continue to exist. It is no coincidence that these officers are in some way ‘known’ in the organisation. In BTP we re-routed on this journey after the murder of Sarah Everard. And as I prepare for my eleventh Accelerated Misconduct Hearing, I can feel the shift in how seriously we take professional standards, but it’s something we have to work at every day. From creating an internal environment where people can speak up confidentially, to swift and credible action and transparency throughout our decisions. It’s how we earn the trust of our people and in return they share concerns that would otherwise never have been spoken, or heard.
Since joining BTP, I’m encouraged that internal reporting of wrongdoing has increased by 63% yet I know that sadly there is still more to be heard. Many are historic cases that colleagues felt they couldn’t challenge at the time. But when an organisation commits to supporting victims, the tide turns and our relentless pursuit in building a modern and inclusive workplace which has no place for wrongdoing is proof of that. The courage shown by our colleagues helps us greatly, as more and more are supported through strong allyship.
For those who do come to our attention, the difference between a silly mistake and predatory, discriminatory or abusive behaviour is actually pretty obvious. We are a force that provides the space to learn, where it is appropriate to. In fact, 12% of our cases are resolved through reflective practice – the highest of any UK police force and against a national average of 3%. When used in the right cases and with common sense, it inspires meaningful development and cultural change. Equally, there are plenty of cases that require a formal sanction – or even dismissal. You can’t learn not to be a sex offender or domestic abuser, not on my watch anyway – we simply don’t want you in the job. And we will take swift action to see to that.
But what about the criminal matters that come to the attention of police, but somehow don’t always result in quick-time action? That’s a little more complex – but high time we sorted it out.
If I was to commit a crime, get arrested and give my details, there is no obvious system check that would flag that I’m a police officer if I didn’t choose to tell them. Yes, you read that correctly. On arrest, my DNA and prints would be taken and checked against national forensics databases. Even though I’ve provided my biometric samples to the police (my employer), the datasets are not run together to identify a match. As it stands today, I could be arrested by the police and nobody but me would know I am the police. In my view this is a priority issue for our attention. Otherwise, others could fall through the cracks and go on to do harm.
So what’s the solution?
Bold leadership. Better intelligence and information sharing, tighter regulations and conditions, and prompt action. It’s about time we understood and closed the gaps. It’s what the public expect, and I don’t think we need to await a review to tell us that. Whether that means reviewing the remit of biometric data or police workers have an appropriately defined presence on the Police National Database (PND), the point is if any of us come to police attention the right people must be alerted immediately. The Home Secretary’s announcement that all Forces will conduct their own PND checks is to be applauded – but we can also take it further. Those checks are only as good as the day and time they are undertaken. We need this to be immediately picked up at the point of arrest. It gives us a better chance of taking swift action, protecting the public and restoring confidence.
Then it’s how we piece everything together for a consolidated view. If a career in policing is like a tunnel, we should be able to walk in from the past and out towards the present, passing every event like an obstacle adorning the walls: every commendation, appraisal, letter of thanks, period of sickness. We should also be able to see every complaint, every grievance outcome, performance sanction or moment of reflective practice. And if we pause and look back, what is it that obscures the light? Patterns of complaints over the course of a career can indicate a more serious underlying issue and, in a similar way to trauma, we don’t see the impact over time clearly or quickly enough.
We must also take a hard look as to whether our misconduct processes and systems deliver the results we need them to and what, if anything, needs to change. So, for example, if an officer who is investigated for a serious sexual offence is not proceeded with criminally, the matter is then considered from a misconduct perspective. Misconduct proceedings exist for a different purpose than criminal proceedings namely to secure public confidence and there is a lesser burden of proof. However, the misconduct regime does not come with the same investigatory powers as criminal proceedings such as seizing personal digital media, searching a property or persons, obtaining comms data checks and being able to use surveillance tactics in the same way etc... I believe we need to start a debate on regulatory reform.
Finally, we need to stand up for what we believe in if it’s in the public interest. During the pandemic, one of my PCs harassed a lone female jogger for her phone number and told her she was "too curvy to be Asian". Inexplicably he was given a final written warning by an independent panel and allowed to keep his job. For me this is totally unacceptable. I can’t have someone who I believe poses a threat to women, working for the British Transport Police. So, we are taking the panel to a Judicial Review. We can’t hide behind the decisions of others, if we don’t agree we must stand up and make that clear. After all, we are here first and foremost to protect the public.
As I publish this blog, I will be finalising a letter to my Secretary of State (for Transport, copied to the Home Secretary) to offer some of these suggestions, along with other specifics, to assist us to adapt as a police service – so the missed opportunities around the corner are not missed. I believe the workforce would support this, because nobody hates a bad cop more than a good cop. There are so many angry good cops right now who care more about keeping people safe than you would ever believe. So, if through the anger stirred up this week, we can make some procedural change and close the gaps, then let’s all get behind it.
Policing is defined by the character of our people. That is the truth I want us to embrace. I firmly believe that policing can re-earn the trust of those we are here to protect, but it will take the courage and concerted effort of us all.
We can do it and we must do it, quickly…
Lucy D'Orsi QPM
Chief Constable at British Transport Police
Sunday, 6 November 2022
Sound Familiar?
Policing has long been known as a “job for life”. With low rates of leaving and high rates of loyalty, a career of 30 years or more was very much the norm. However, times have changed.
Government figures show that the number of voluntary resignations from the police service in England and Wales has increased by 72%, from 1,996 in 2021 to 3,433 in 2022. Voluntary resignations now account for 42% of all police leavers, compared to 33% in the previous year.
A decade ago in 2012, there were 1,158 voluntary resignations, accounting for just 18% of all leavers. In just ten years, voluntary resignations have increased by 196%.
In 2016, the National Police Chiefs’ Council referred to “healthy churn as positive”. But after several years of increasing resignations, retention is now one of the biggest challenges in policing. This problem can’t be tackled without a better understanding of why officers are leaving – whether it is due to dissatisfaction with the job or the organisation, or part of a planned move towards a second or “portfolio career”.
For the last few years, we have interviewed nearly 100 former police officers across England and Wales who have voluntarily left the service. We wanted to know more about their reasons for leaving – negative public perceptions of policing, the nature of the job itself or other reasons entirely.
Our findings show that officers are not resigning due to the often challenging and stressful occupational role of being a police officer but rather because of internal, organisational issues. Much like the issues facing any other workplace, retired officers complained of poor leadership, lack of promotion or progression opportunities and a lack of voice.
Officers felt that they weren’t valued or even known by their line manager, and described relationships with their managers as poor and distant. It is not surprising that some viewed yearly appraisals as “a waste of time”. This creates a cycle where officers don’t feel comfortable raising issues or challenges they have with their line manager.
Some also described a lack of appropriate role models in the senior ranks. This was particularly true for female officers with children who returned from maternity leave, often part time. As one officer said:
The really senior females that are married with children … they seem to be always far and few between.Not being able to learn from or seek support from a leader who has navigated a similar journey left officers feeling that the job was not for people like them.
Organisational injustice
Officers described a sense of unfairness around promotion opportunities, and lack of guidance on how to achieve career goals. As one said:
Everyone’s so busy sorting themselves out that development … it’s all driven by you.Officers were exasperated by the use of temporary promotions as a way to deal with resource issues, predominantly at sergeant rank. Some described the promotion process as cutthroat, and being about ambition, not ability.
Others said that the process rewarded nepotism, and said that higher-ups promoted people with similar qualities to themselves, creating a barrier to diversity in senior ranks. Officers described having to choose between seeking promotion and specialising in particular roles, as there were no opportunities to do both.
Those we interviewed felt they were viewed as “just a number” by their police force, and that their voices were not heard. Participants did not feel they could share their opinions or be involved in decision making on issues that impacted their day-to-day role.
They also felt major decisions like where they were posted after a successful promotion, returning from absence or due to restructuring within the force, were out of their hands.
This lack of voice was also evident in “group thinking” within the organisation. Officers said that attempts to challenge dominant thinking and practices were met with defensiveness, exclusion or being told to “shut up and get on with it”. The policing organisation is rightly facing calls to root out the damaging aspects of its culture and to encourage officers to speak out about poor behaviour.
The head of the College of Policing Andy Marsh has warned of the dangers of a “culture of defensiveness” – police forces being unwilling to change their practices. Our evidence however suggests that even if officers are willing to do so, their voices may not be heard.
Exit interviews
Most of our interviewees believed their decision to resign was the right one but that didn’t hide their disappointment, regret and sadness in leaving:
I was gutted, absolutely gutted, because I was really proud to be a police officer.These feelings of an absence of organisational support are made worse by the lack of meaningful exit interviews. A number of officers described their participation in our research interviews as being “cathartic” and providing “a bit of closure”, as exit interviews are not routinely offered by police forces.
Only 35% of officers we spoke to were offered an exit interview, with only 26% of officers completing one. None felt they were offered a meaningful opportunity to discuss their reasons for leaving. They viewed the process as a “tick-box exercise” and perceived management as uninterested, with little information being actually recorded.
Understanding why there has been a 196% increase in voluntary resignations from the police service in England and Wales in the last decade may be a painful undertaking for many forces, but without that information, retention may only get worse. Starting those difficult conversations and providing leavers with the voice they lack within the force is the first step to solving the problem.
Saturday, 12 March 2022
The Need For A Better Plan
A few weeks back, we published an article on our website by Whitney Iles, Khatuna Tsintsadze and Charlie Weinberg, the latest in the ‘critical care’ series they have been writing for us.
In the article, they criticised what they called “performance activism”, a tendency in the voluntary sector towards lots of activity, but “very little change on the ground”. While we don't really achieve anything, they argued, we are left “feeling good about our efforts”.
One of the things I have been wondering in the last few weeks is whether, in criminal justice, performance activism is itself a symptom of a frustration with the inertia of current criminal justice policy-making, its ‘stuckness’.
The prison system appears mired in almost permanent crisis. The police face a major crisis of trust. The court system is wrestling with an enormous backlog of cases. Injustices such as unfair joint enterprise convictions, the Imprisonment for Public Protection sentence, or racism throughout the justice system, are sometimes acknowledged. But nothing seems to change. Months may pass; the same issues, the same basic problems, remain.
Unsurprisingly, many of us probably feel trapped by the monotony of repeated criminal justice failure, unsure how, or if, we will ever escape it. A flurry of activity, even if it achieves little, can feel better than no activity at all.
I and colleagues at the Centre work are currently working on a new organisational strategy, to help guide the direction of our work through to our 100th anniversary in 2031. As part of that, I've been thinking about the problems of performance activism, and what might be behind it.
I've written this short piece to start bottoming out these issues. I'd be interested in any thoughts or reactions.
How do we escape the monotony of repeated policy failure? How do we instead do something genuinely new and transformative?
Consider the Prisons Strategy White Paper, published in December 2021, in what already feels like a different time.
It promises more prisons, on top of existing plans to expand current capacity to around 100,000 places. “We need a pipeline of accommodation beyond our current build programme”, the White Paper states, “and we will begin preparatory work... to set ourselves up for future expansion”.
There’s nothing particularly new here. In modern times, relentless prison growth has been the monotonous background noise of prisons policy since the eve of the Second World War, as I explained in this Prison Service Journal article from a few years back.
Its effect has been to scupper progress on meaningful reform. Whatever the merits of a number of other proposals in the Prisons Strategy White Paper – improving prison education, doing more to get ex-prisoners into jobs, and enhancing resettlement support, for instance – they will likely be negated by growing prisoner numbers.
A couple of weeks ago, Whitney Iles, Khatuna Tsintsadze and Charlie Weinberg wrote about “performance activism”, a symptom of a “lack of long-term thinking and political bravery”. With performance activism, we see “very little change on the ground”, while we are left “feeling good about our efforts”.
Current responses to initiatives such as the Prisons Strategy White Paper – talking up the perceived positives, while discretely shaking our heads about the obvious negatives – risks falling into this performance activism trap, I think.
Some might argue that this is what you get when too many grant funders favour short-term ‘impact’ over long-term ambition, and commissioning models reward nimble public relations, while punishing principled public challenge. I have much sympathy with such views.
But it also reflects the lack of long-term thinking that Whitney, Khatuna and Charlie wrote about, which all too-often leads to organisations falling into one of two, equally problematic, positions.
First, in seeking to influence the policy process, and to demonstrate impact, we can too readily accept the problem as defined by government, offering ‘solutions’ that tend towards reproducing in the present, and into future, the failed policies of the past. When this happens, we end up being defined in. We become part of the problem we claim we are trying to solve.
Alternatively, in seeking to escape the monotonous circularity of policy failure, we might too easily reject the grind of day-to-day influencing. This can result in powerful critiques and inspiring visions. But they are often critiques and visions easy to dismiss as utopian, and equally easy to ignore. This is the problem of being defined out. We stop having anything useful to contribute to the discussion.
What it means to navigate a course between these two, equally unhelpful, positions, to make possible an escape from the monotony of repeated failure, is something I and colleagues at the Centre are exploring, as we finalise a new strategy for the organisation.
In the context of the Prisons Strategy White Paper, it means, I think, developing coherent and credible alternatives to the seemingly relentless drive to ever more prisons, and charting a path to the world as we might wish it to be, while taking seriously the realities of the world as it is.