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Pluses & Minuses of Leading Derby ContendersWednesday, April 25, 2007
Ten days out from Kentucky Derby 133 let's examine pluses and minuses of ten leading contenders, in order of their graded stakes earnings -
STREET SENSE -
Plus - Never worse than third in seven starts...Blew their doors off over the Churchill Downs strip in the BC Juvenile so we know he likes the track...In hands of trainer (Carl Nafzger) who won the Derby (Unbridled in '90)...Appears to be training well...
Minus - Only had two Derby preps, both tough, Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes...The BC Juvenile jinx..Was green in Blue Grass stretch run, ducking in at least three times in losing by a nose to Dominican...Jock (Calvin Borel) is 0-4 in Derby...
SCAT DADDY -
Plus - Won twice at nine furlongs - Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby...Rider is Edgar Prado, victorious on Barbaro a year ago...Has tactical speed to gain position in 20-horse line-up...Only time worse than third was fourth to Street Sense in BC Juvenile...
Minus - Yet to crack 100 Beyer speed figure...All out to beat Notional in Florida Derby, with third place Chelokee encountering serious traffic trouble...
CIRCULAR QUAY -
Plus - Dominant, romping winner of Louisiana Derby...Should be fresh, since Derby will be first race in eight weeks...Usual fast pace in large field will set up devastating stretch charge...Consistent, only time worse than second was Risen Star when horse fell in front of him...
Minus - Unraced for eight weeks leading into Derby...Deep closer needs fast pace and clean trip...
CURLIN -
Plus - Unbeaten in three starts, winning by total 28 1/2 lengths, including 10 1/2 length triumph in Arkansas Derby...103 Beyer in Ark. Derby...Speed to stalk and stamina to finish (last eighth in less than 12 at Oaklawn)...Could be superior talent...
Minus - With only three lifetime races, bucking Derby tradition (Apollo last horse to win Derby - 1882 - without running at two. Also, Regret(1915) last one to win Derby with only three outs) ...Serious question of seasoning, races have appeared easy, never been in a head-and-head battle...
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ -
Plus - Consistent (6-4-1-1)...Been prepared traditionally - three starts as 2yo and three this year...Speed to stalk and can finish...Blinkers on for Wood Memorial win might have cured tendency to lug in through stretch...Trainer (Barclay Tagg) won Derby with Funny Cide ('03)...
Minus - Ran faster as 2yo in winning Remsen (1:48 4/5) than this year in Wood (1:49 2/5)...Not convinced blinkers solved lugging in problem...
GREAT HUNTER -
Plus - Seasoned in nine starts (7 as 2yo and 2 as 3yo)..Defeated both Circular Quay and Street Sense in Breeders' Futurity last year.. Until Blue Grass (a troubled 5th to Dominican) had never been worse than third...Preferred style is to make one run from off pace, as in impressive Robert B. Lewis win in early March...
Minus - Appeared beaten when forced to take up in Blue Grass...Only two preps for Derby...Soundly whipped by Street Sense in BC Juvenile...Needs clear trip in crowded Derby field...
STORMELLO -
Plus - Speedy, game... Well-experienced in nine starts. Rest prior to Derby should help since he appeared to bounce when fourth to Scat Daddy in Florida Derby after losing by a nose to that same rival in Fountain of Youth...
Minus - Carson City on bottom of pedigree cause to question distance proclivity...With big field, there should be plenty of pace which will compromise chances since he runs forwardly...
DOMINICAN -
Plus - Improving at the right time, with wins in the Rushaway and Blue Grass...Rallied off extraordinarily slow pace to nod Street Sense in Blue Grass...
Minus - Only two Derby preps...Was Blue Grass legit, given the pace scenario?...
TIAGO -
Plus - Like Dominican, getting good at the right time... Seems to have good turn of foot, unlike half-brother Giacomo ('05 Derby) who was a grinder...Fast pace in big field would set up rally...Worked well since SA Derby upset...
Minus - Only four lifetime starts so seasoning is a big question...Has to come from clouds so will need a clear trip...
COWTOWN CAT -
Plus - Seems underrated despite good wins in Gotham and Illinois Derby...Shown versatility with off-the-pace success in Gotham and wire-to-wire victory in Illinois Derby when there was a lack of pace...Jockey (Fernando Jara) is a plus, also...
Minus - Yet to crack 100 Beyer...Illinois Derby was made to order with dawdling fractions to lead from the get-go...
There are others deserving of consideration, obviously, but this is my assessment of ten contenders.