"Managed democracy" in the US of A?

If we can all agree that a free press is one of the pillars of a truly democratic society - not part of the textbook definition about one person, one vote, but an institution that allows people to make the informed decisions which are critical to a society being considered democratic - then isn't a country where the media are managed, more and more, by those in power drifting away from the democratic ideal?

I saw a couple of articles last month that made me wonder whether good friends George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin have been comparing notes on how to deal with the pesky press. First was a Michiko Kakutani's review, "After Years of Taking Heat, Spokesman Takes Potshots," of former Bush Press Secretary Ari Fleischer's recent book, The President, the Press and My Years in the White House, which gave the book a thorough trashing and provided a nice synopsis of the Bush Administration's efforts to deceive American media consumers:

[...] In fact, the main usefulness of this book may be that it sheds more light on this White House's mindset vis-а-vis the press. This is an administration, after all, that has preferred carefully choreographed photo ops and stage-managed town hall meetings to regular press conferences (the current President Bush has held fewer than 20 solo news conferences since taking office, compared with 83 held by his father during his four-year term), an administration that has tried to circumvent what it calls the ''filter'' of the national press by courting regional media and having soldiers send form letters to local newspapers asserting that American troops had been welcomed ''with open arms'' by Iraqis.

During the current Mr. Bush's tenure in the White House, federal agencies have been caught distributing videos using paid spokesmen acting as newscasters to promote administration agendas; at least three conservative commentators have been paid to promote or consult on administration policies; and a conservative correspondent using an alias (presumably to camouflage reported links with pornographic Web sites) gained access to the White House and was allowed to ask softball questions at press briefings.

In what seems meant as praise of his boss, Mr. Fleischer writes that President Bush ''was disciplined, knew what he wanted to say and was seldom 'off message'''; he ''would often repeat the same statement to the press, no matter how many different ways they asked their questions.'' The same might be said of Mr. Fleischer. In the case of the former, it has made for an administration accused by its critics of being secretive, insular and defensive. In the case of the latter, it has made for a book that feels insular, defensive and wholly predictable.

The NYT had another excellent and more detailed story about one of the phenomena mentioned by Kakutani:

Under Bush, a New Age of Prepackaged News
By DAVID BARSTOW and ROBIN STEIN, New York Times, March 13, 2005.

It is the kind of TV news coverage every president covets. "Thank you, Bush. Thank you, U.S.A.," a jubilant Iraqi-American told a camera crew in Kansas City for a segment about reaction to the fall of Baghdad. A second report told of "another success" in the Bush administration's "drive to strengthen aviation security"; the reporter called it "one of the most remarkable campaigns in aviation history." A third segment, broadcast in January, described the administration's determination to open markets for American farmers.

To a viewer, each report looked like any other 90-second segment on the local news. In fact, the federal government produced all three. The report from Kansas City was made by the State Department. The "reporter" covering airport safety was actually a public relations professional working under a false name for the Transportation Security Administration. The farming segment was done by the Agriculture Department's office of communications.

Under the Bush administration, the federal government has aggressively used a well-established tool of public relations: the prepackaged, ready-to-serve news report that major corporations have long distributed to TV stations to pitch everything from headache remedies to auto insurance. In all, at least 20 federal agencies, including the Defense Department and the Census Bureau, have made and distributed hundreds of television news segments in the past four years, records and interviews show. Many were subsequently broadcast on local stations across the country without any acknowledgement of the government's role in their production.

This winter, Washington has been roiled by revelations that a handful of columnists wrote in support of administration policies without disclosing they had accepted payments from the government. But the administration's efforts to generate positive news coverage have been considerably more pervasive than previously known. At the same time, records and interviews suggest widespread complicity or negligence by television stations, given industry ethics standards that discourage the broadcast of prepackaged news segments from any outside group without revealing the source.

Federal agencies are forthright with broadcasters about the origin of the news segments they distribute. The reports themselves, though, are designed to fit seamlessly into the typical local news broadcast. In most cases, the "reporters" are careful not to state in the segment that they work for the government. Their reports generally avoid overt ideological appeals. Instead, the government's news-making apparatus has produced a quiet drumbeat of broadcasts describing a vigilant and compassionate administration.

Some reports were produced to support the administration's most cherished policy objectives, like regime change in Iraq or Medicare reform. Others focused on less prominent matters, like the administration's efforts to offer free after-school tutoring, its campaign to curb childhood obesity, its initiatives to preserve forests and wetlands, its plans to fight computer viruses, even its attempts to fight holiday drunken driving. They often feature "interviews" with senior administration officials in which questions are scripted and answers rehearsed. Critics, though, are excluded, as are any hints of mismanagement, waste or controversy.

Some of the segments were broadcast in some of nation's largest television markets, including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta.

An examination of government-produced news reports offers a look inside a world where the traditional lines between public relations and journalism have become tangled, where local anchors introduce prepackaged segments with "suggested" lead-ins written by public relations experts. It is a world where government-produced reports disappear into a maze of satellite transmissions, Web portals, syndicated news programs and network feeds, only to emerge cleansed on the other side as "independent" journalism.

At least in the Russian media the government influence is transparent. In the US, it appears, you have to look much more closely to discern the hidden hand of the White House. Consume your media carefully... come to think of it, this is a pretty appropriate topic for April Fool's Day.

Bliny and Change - part 2

Late last year there was a discussion in this space of Teremok bliny (pancake or crepe) stands and of the company's interesting on-line presence (here at Scraps of Moscow, we cover the REALLY important issues). I went onto their customer forum and asked about getting the cheese in my blin a little more melty, and one of their managers responded that a surprise would be forthcoming in the near future.

Well, I have seen the surprise, and I'm disappointed. They replaced the grated Russian-style cheese with something that looks and tastes like Velveeta slices. It does melt more quickly, but surely there was a better way... Teremok is still better than any of its competitors, though.

SPB Times - "Citizens Cool on Outsiders"; beat them

The story I posted about earlier this week here and here was indeed covered in the SPB Times as I had hoped/expected it would be. I didn't think their headline was quite appropriate, although to be fair the article was about a survey taken St. Petersburg, and the recent attacks were used to illustrate the problems faced by non-ethnic Russians in that city. You might have thought that another such spate of attacks would have inspired a more serious-sounding headline, though.

Citizens Cool On Outsiders
St. Petersburg Times, Tuesday, March 29, 2005
By Galina Stolyarova And Irina Titova STAFF WRITERS

[...]The three foreign students who had non-Slavic appearances were injured in separate attacks in the city over the weekend.

Manuel Bernard, 26, an Angolan student of the Agriculture Academy in Pushkin, was attacked by several young people in metro wagon at Nevsky Prospekt metro station on Sunday night. Desire Deffo, deputy head of the African Union in St. Petersburg, said Monday in a telephone interview that Bernard had been hospitalized with head injuries and slash wounds from a knife. He was in a satisfactory condition. A St. Petersburger and a Muscovite were detained in connection with the attack, Interfax reported. Deffo said Bernard had described the attackers as skinheads.

Saiful Islam, 26, a fifth-year medical student from Bangladesh, was attacked near Lesnaya metro station on Saturday afternoon. About seven young people attacked him from behind and gave him head injuries that required hospitalization, Mozibul Haque, head of the city's Bangladeshi community, said Monday. Islam said his attackers did not look like skinheads - they were dressed in ordinary clothes and didn't have shaved heads, Haque added.

Also Saturday, a group of people on Nevsky Prospekt beat up a Chinese student of the St. Petersburg Conservatory. He was hospitalized with head injuries, Interfax reported.

Deffo said the city government is taking too little action to deter the attackers from striking again. "Many attackers get away with these attacks without punishment and feel they can keep doing it," Deffo said. Most of the attackers are skinheads, he added. [...]

Moldova and US-Russian Relations

This is an excellent column from Tuesday's Moscow Times. It's especially insightful on the topic of media hostility on both sides of US-Russian relations.

Moscow Times, March 29, 2005
More Missed CIS Opportunities
By Ira Straus

From Ukraine to Moldova to Kyrgyzstan, there is a pattern of rapid learning by Russia and the United States. It is hopeful, but as yet artificially limited. In Ukraine there was mutual opposition and in Kyrgyzstan mutual caution, to avoid tearing the country apart. Both Russia and the West perceive a need to go further and cooperate to stabilize Kyrgyzstan, but have yet to do so. Moldova is the missing link, indicating where the obstacles lie.

A strange thing happened in Moldova earlier this month. Russia and the West were essentially on the same side regarding the elections there March 6 -- a remarkable fact, considering their real differences over Transdnestr. Yet no one heard about this. Just the opposite: A fair amount of noise was made, particularly in the media, as if the two sides were adversaries on Moldova, just as they had been a few months earlier on Ukraine.

Both Russia and the West called for freer campaign conditions before the elections. Both could have hoped for the moderate Democratic Moldova bloc to do as well as possible against the nationalistic Communist Party government. In the end, Democratic Moldova got 28 percent of the vote and the Communists 46 percent, much less than the large majority the Communists won during previous elections, when they had run on a pro-Russia platform. The change gives DM significantly increased bargaining power. But fairer elections would have given it even more votes and bargaining power.

Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe both criticized a string of unfair campaign practices. It would have made sense for them to apply pressure together: As a joint force, this pressure would have been hard for the Moldovan regime to resist.

Yet there was no active or visible Russia-West solidarity. Instead, there was the appearance of friction, which to a slight extent reflected reality. The Russian and U.S. media portrayed their two countries as somehow on opposing sides in Moldova.

Russia, trapped by its own polemic against OSCE interference in CIS countries, simply didn't think of joining hands with the OSCE on Moldova. The Russian media polemicized against supposed Western designs for the next Orange Revolution, even though such a revolution would have been Russia's best hope due to its rocky relations with Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin. It did not help, to be sure, that the color orange was usurped in Moldova by the Christian Democrats, a small, anti-Russian, Romanian-nationalist party well to the right of DM.

Here we see in operation the way vicious circles are created. First, the Western and Russian media both pinned a misleading, oversimplified anti-Russian label on the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Then, anti-Russian ethno-nationalists in Moldova proceed to take up the orange banner as their own. Finally, Russians attacked any prospect of anything orange in Moldova.

Some Western papers wrote, as if totally ignorant of the country, that Moldova was a Russian-controlled dictatorship. In this way, they managed to reconcile their anti-Russian sentiments with their distaste for the authoritarianism of the Moldovan Communist regime. Moldova was often lumped together with Belarus, and anything wrong in either country was blamed on Moscow.

The facts didn't seem to matter much to the Western media, perhaps because none of them really cared about Moldova. What mattered was to present data -- real or imagined -- in the form of arguing against the "other side" and creating the impression of a Russia-West conflict. That was, after all, more interesting to reporters and editors than internal Moldovan issues, and it fit within their pre-established storyline about U.S.-Russia relations.

In short, some of the basic facts about the elections in Moldova simply failed to register unless they could be fit into an anti-American or anti-Russian mold. [...]

The experience of the Moldovan election shows that the mere passive fact of shared U.S.-Russia interests is not enough to overcome old habits of conflict and confrontation. Solidarity would require a deliberate effort to work out a strategy in common, followed by a visible effort to implement it in common. Only then, it seems, will it be understood at the core of national institutions -- the media, the military, the state bureaucracy -- that the West and Russia really are in the business of cooperating, not competing. [...]

In Moldova, the two sides had a chance to gain election results somewhat better for both of them and, in the process, to repair their mutual relations after the Ukrainian revolution. In Kyrgyzstan, they had a chance to smooth the transition, in the process building positive mutual relations. The need is still there: The situation in Kyrgyzstan remains unstable, and difficult reconciliations are needed.

Russia and the United States missed their chance in Moldova. They need to ask themselves how many more opportunities they can afford to miss.

I would add (not entirely on-topic) that I see more anti-Americanism on the Russian media side and simply apathy on the US media side. Here, Channel 1 and Rossiia cover the US approach toward Russia as big news, or at least they cover some Kremlin spin doctor's idea of the way the US approach toward Russia should be portrayed as the sinister explanation for whatever the day's bad news is for Russia; in the US, on the other hand, not many people care about what the Russian government is saying, especially not about something happening in Moldova.

Nothing makes an average American's eyes glaze over like mentioning Moldova, let me tell ya - then you mention "former Soviet republic," and you can see them mentally categorizing it under "Russia." But I digress, and these comments are not really that relevant to the ideas discussed in the column above. To conclude the rambling, maybe if the Russian government was involved in promoting democracy in Canada or Mexico, Joe Sixpack would care, but I don't think the average American is as concerned about or interested in Russia as the average Russian is about America.

"Kyrgyzstan at the Crossroads"

The cover boy on the latest issue of Novosti, the newsletter of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, is none other than Askar Akayev. It seems then-President Akaev addressed the Harvard community last fall, and a writeup of his speech was chosen as the front-page story for Novosti.

The newsletter is available here in PDF format , but it takes awhile to download, so I've excerpted the best parts of the article below:

Kyrgyzstan at the Crossroads: President Askar Akaev of Kyrgyzstan Speaks at Harvard; By Erdin Beshimov [a 1st-year student in the REECA master's program], Novosti, Fall 2004

[...]The President explained the difficulty in finding an appropriate political model on which to build the country. At the early stages of its independence, Kyrgyzstan needed to develop new guidelines of development that would “approximate the Western model of public, social and economic life.” At that time, different developmental models were considered and tried—the Polish, Swedish, and Turkish, in particular—with the Chinese model continuing to be of interest to this day. But President Akaev realized that, as appealing as foreign models were, their implementation seemed internally defective. Instead, Akaev’s administration decided to develop its own model, taking into account Kyrgyzstan’s distinctive national characteristics. According to Akaev, this approach seems to have worked. [...]

Akaev went on to explain that democratization is a difficult process, and that it was naпve to expect a full-fledged democracy so soon after the fall of authoritarianism. He reminded the audience that America needed two centuries after the signing of its constitution to institute a true democracy.

“My democratic creed is based on the principle that there is not, and cannot be, a universal formula for democracy applicable to all countries and peoples.” Democracy, Akaev believes, “should ripen internally in the depth of society itself, and correspond to the historical practice and experience of a country. It should integrate organically into the people’s awareness, and only in this way will it take firm root in the public consciousness.” He reproached those people who “continue to attach labels of ‘non-free’ or ‘not completely free’ country to the Kyrgyz Republic,” warning that judgments of this sort are far from harmless political criticism. On the contrary, they have the potential to result in a discriminatory US foreign aid policy.

Yet Akaev’s speech did not address the issue of what has impeded democracy in Kyrgyzstan. The question remains, Is democracy being suspended in order to carry out painful, rapid and effective economic reforms and to conduct administrative structural changes, or to conceal corruption and mismanagement? [...]

Responding to a question about the pending transfer of presidential power in Kyrgyzstan, a crucial issue to democratization in Central Asia, Akaev announced that he will step down as president. “I am for the people choosing the next president. Therefore, I have not aimed to determine a successor. Our people are educated and wise, and I am convinced that they will choose a worthy next president.”

Altercation or hate crime? The jury is out...

Looking a round a bit more for information on the incident with the Angolan student in St. Petersburg, I found the Interfax wire item that probably served as the source for the Echo of Moscow report I heard this morning, or shared the same source (my quick translation):

Angolan Student Attacked in the Petersburg Metro
10:23am, 28 March 2005, Interfax Severo-Zapad
Late Sunday an Angolan citizen was hospitalized with knife puncture and slash wounds sustained in the "Nevsky Prospekt" station of the St. Petersburg metro, according to the St. Petersburg City Directorate of Internal Affairs. The victim is a student of the Agrarian University in St. Petersburg. According to preliminary information, several people attacked the foreigner in a metro train and stabbed him several times with a knife. Two youths were detained on suspicion of involvement in this crime, one of whom is a resident of Moscow and one of whom is a student in one of the St. Petersburg miliary academies, according to the CDIA.

Note that this is a somewhat different story of events from the RIA Novosti report I linked to earlier (also my translation):

An Angolan Student Was Wounded in an Altercation on a St. Petersburg Metro Train
St. Petersburg, 28 March - RIA "Novosti" - Severo-Zapad, Dina Danilova.
An Angolan student was wounded in an altercation on a St. Petersburg metro train. According to the St. Petersburg CDIA, the incident occurred last night at the Nevsky Prospekt metro station. According to preliminary reports, in the train during the altercation two youths - a Moscow resident and a student of one of the St. Petersburg military academies - stabbed the Angolan citizen, a student at the St. Petersburg Agrarian University, in the face with a broken bottle. In an effort to defend himself, the Angolan citizen injured the Moscow resident's hands. Both victims were hospitalized. An investigation is being conducted and a decision is being made on whether or not to open a criminal case.

Who knows what the real story is? I am sure it will be reported eventually in the St. Petersburg Times if it really was a hate crime.

Hmmm...

RIA Novosti confirms (at 11:03am MSK) that there was an "argument" in the metro in which a Muscovite and military academy student wounded an Angolan student with a broken bottle. The Angolan then defended himself, and both parties were hospitalized.

So maybe this was just a drunken altercation and not an addition to St. Petersburg's growing list of disgraceful hate crimes, or maybe that's the spin that the powers-that-be would like to put on this incident.

Racists attack again in St. Petersburg?

I just heard a report on Echo of Moscow Radio - apparently an Angolan student was attacked last night in the St. Petersburg metro by knife-wielding assailants, and one of the two people arrested in connection with the attack is a student of a military academy. However, when I go to the news page of Echo's website , the headline is there but it takes me to a broken link . Maybe this means they are verifying the story - the initial broadcast I heard didn't cite a specific source, and I haven't been able to find this story on any of the Russian wires. Stay tuned...

Sunday comics

I've wanted for a while to share this comic strip, "Akimych and Vladimir Vladimirovich" by Konstantin Yavorskiy. I guess the strip is sort of like "Doonesbury," in that it's political satire, but it has a much smaller cast of regular characters. Akimych is an average Russian guy, and he and the President are shown hanging out in various situations. "Akimych" was mentioned in this 2003 article in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, this 2004 article in Novye Izvestiia , and on a talk-show on Echo of Moscow Radio where the discussion focused on comics, but there's not much else on the internet about it.

I don't think Yavorskiy is doing new editions of this strip anymore - whether that's because he's moved on or Bolshoi Gorod didn't want to run the it anymore (maybe it didn't fit their glossy new image), I don't know. One Russian blogger commented on her disappointment with this particular change from the old version of Bolshoi Gorod, and I have to say that I share the sentiment, although I think they may have stopped running the strip before their re-launch.

Here's a quality edition of "Akimych" for your Sunday viewing pleasure (you may want to click on the image to expand it):



Translation:
[Frame 1] Old Lady: OK, go on.
[Frame 2] Akimych: Leader, head of state...
[Frame 3] Old Lady: Tsar!
Akimych: No, that doesn't fit.
[Frame 4] Old Lady: King?
Akimych: Nope.
[Frame 5] Akimych: It has to be 9 letters long.
[Frame 6] Old Lady: OK then - Emperor! [the word has 9 letters in Russian]
[Frame 7] Akimych: Nope, that doesn't work either...
[Frame 8] Akimych: ...the fourth letter has to be an "S."
[Frame 9] Vladimir Vladimirovich: President! I figured it out right away.
Akimych: Correct!
Old Lady: OK, go on.

This website has an archive of "Akimych" for your enjoyment.

Moscow: an "aggressive," "overwhelming" city

Carmen at carmen mirada has an interesting post about Moscow architecture. She introduces the topic as follows:

Before moving here to Buenos Aires, I lived in Moscow. Without doubt, it's the city I've loved the most unconditionally, as I've always known it would sooner bite than embrace me back. It's the most aggressive city I've ever had bearings in, with an architecture that befits this by being overwhelming in its level of ideological inscription.

I couldn't agree more with that description, although for me DC will always be the city that enjoys truly unconditional love. Moscow is aggressive, and you can always sense it trying to bite you, but somehow that grows on you. If you've ever tried to walk around the city anywhere other than downtown, you know how intimidating the scale of the distances and roadways to be crossed can be. When we eventually move away from here, though, we will miss it, probably more than we can imagine.

Five years ago today - Putin's election

OK, I meant to have this done and posted on March 26th, but now it's the middle of the night, Europe has "sprung forward" to summer time, as they call it over here, and I still haven't finished the post (I was updating my links list).

For some reason, the date March 26th triggered a memory for me - something significant happened on this date...what was it again?

Then I remembered - 5 years ago, Russia elected Vladimir Putin president. At the time, I was enrolled in an M.A. program at Georgetown University's Center for Eurasian, Russian & East European Studies (CERES), and I was on a fellowship that required me to maintain the Center's small library. As part of those duties, I had a regular column in the CERES newsletter. Here's what I had to say at the time (in the April edition of the newsletter) about the Russian elections, which occurred the day after we took our comprehensive exams and had a massive party to celebrate that occasion:

[...] I would like to extend thanks from all the second-years to [M... P...] for hosting the comps party. Strangely, very few second-years showed up in the library on the following day to watch returns come in from the cliffhanger Russian presidential election. With the outcome of the race not in doubt, CERES students analyzed the coverage with an eye on the more superficial aspects, such as the relative youth, frequent awkward pauses, and questionable sense of style of the analysts on ORT. A consensus was reached among the female viewers that Sergei Kiriyenko is the hidden “hottie” of the Russian political scene. Thus, the viewing of the election returns was in keeping with the Russian literary tradition of examining serious themes through the lens of the absurd. [...]

Could I really have been so light-hearted about the election of Mr. Putin? I guess I was more light-hearted about a lot of things back then. Five years ago... that was three months before I got married and a good five months before I started my first really serious job.

Heroic Bishkek blogger

A 24-year-old Bishkek resident who maintains a LiveJournal blog under the nic Morrire (her real name seems to be Elena, judging from some of the comments) has become a key source of information for people following the events of the last couple of days there. This woman took the photos which were later posted on Fergana.ru (and to which I linked, after finding the link at Registan.net). Her original post with the photos (they are no longer there, presumably she took them down) has a poignant intro (my translation):

My city died last night. My city is dead. May those who planned - yes! yes! PLANNED - the night's looting be cursed. I hate you.

On her blog you will find a blow-by-blow account of the events - both a timeline (which also made it on to Fergana.ru) and a post on the aftermath detailing which stores et al. were destroyed and which survived the looting. It's all in Russian, though.

A couple of the posts have hundreds of comments, many of them from people who used to live in Bishkek and still have relatives there, inquiring about the state of affairs in the Kyrgyz capital. Apparently (according to one of the comments), Elena's blog was quoted on the NTV evening news in Russia, and they ran some of her photos.

She also linked to a page with some slow-loading photos that has a link to a 4-minute video clip of people trying to defend one of the Bishkek department stores. I didn't try to watch the video - don't think my home internet connection could handle that - but it may be worth checking out.

She hasn't posted since Thursday morning, so I guess either all of the photography and blogging tired her out, or she's now no longer reporting for free. More power to her if she got a paying gig out of this.

I am not a big believer in the idea that blogs will replace the mainstream media, but in a crisis situation like this, the ability to leave comments and receive replies in an open forum is very valuable. Clearly this blogger was able to capture some reportorial material documenting the events in Bishkek which the MSM were unable to get any other way, though it no doubt took more courage than navigating to the LiveJournal site - she was at the demonstrations by the "White House" for the duration.

Thanks to Norvezhskii Lesnoi, who maintains the blog that's always the front page of the Bolshoi Gorod website, for directing me to this amazing Bishkek blog.

Elsewhere in the CIS

Kyrgyzstan is not the only place where things are happening today. Veronica of Neeka's Backlog mentions some unrest in Minsk today; and Andy at Siberian Light has a truly excellent post which might well be titled "Whither Moldova?" A topic near and dear to my heart.

"The morning after..."

Thanks to Registan.net for providing a link to a page of photos that shows the aftermath of last night's looting in Bishkek. The heading above the photographs reads, in Russian, "Bishkek, 25 March, 2005. The morning after the revolution."

"A bunch of irresponsible adventurers and plotters..."

This is sad and a bit funny:

Kyrgyzstan's Akayev says he has not resigned - agency
MOSCOW, March 25 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan's outsted President Askar Akayev on Friday confirmed he had left the country but said he had not resigned and accused the opposition of a coup. "An anti-constitutional coup d'etat took place in the republic," Akayev said in a statement sent by email to Kyrgyz news agency Kabar and posted on its Web site (www.kabar.kg).

"A bunch of irresponsible adventurers and plotters has taken the path of seizing power with force." Akayev, who fled Bishkek on Thursday when thousands of opposition supporters stormed government headquarters in the capital Bishkek, said he had ordered his forces not to use force against protesters and had temporarily left the country to avoid more violence.

"Under the circumstances I decided to temporarily leave the country to avoid bloodshed." But he said he had not resigned and planned to return to Kyrgyzstan at some stage. "An attempt to deprive me of my presidential duties through unconstitutional means is a state crime," he said. "My current stay outside the country is temporary."

"I urge all people, who took the criminal path, to return the situation back to where it was, to restore the constitutional order," Akayev said. It was not clear to where Akayev had fled but some news reports say he is in neighbouring Kazakhstan.

Some of those quotations seem like they could be pulled from a fictional account of a delusional, deposed dictator. Poor Askar; it's been a quick fall from his perch as "most democratic leader in Central Asia" to ex-dictator on the lam in an undisclosed location.

Condi confrontational on Kyrgyzstan? Au contraire!

Trolling around for news of breaking Kyrgyzstan stories I saw this banner ad for RIA Novosti featuring a hostile-looking Condi Rice on Lenta.ru:



The text of the ad reads, "Rice: the events in Kirgiziia [that's how many Russians still refer to Kyrgyzstan] 'are just the beginning'"

This is a great example of how a quotation taken out of context can change the speaker's meaning entirely. In the story to which this ad refers, Rice talks about how what's currently happening in Kyrgyzstan is just the beginning of the process in that country, and that revolutionary change takes more than a day to effect.

Fortunately, we can check RIA's version of her remarks against an English-language account provided by the Associated Press:

"It doesn't happen on Day 1," Rice said. "This is a process that's just beginning. We know where we want to go." [...]

"If we can take events on the ground ... encourage the various parties in Kyrgyzstan to move into a process that will then lead to the election of a government and move this process of democracy forward, it will have been a very good thing," Rice said [...]

"Our desire is for a process that will lead to a stable outcome in which elections can be held and where this can move forward," Rice said. "Obviously, everyone should put aside violence. There is no place for violence in a process of this kind."

She said nothing directly or implicitly about the potential "domino effect" of the several recent revolutions in former Soviet nations which has been mentioned by some commentators as cause for Putin to feel like he's on the hot seat. The full text of the RIA article bears this out, but the banner ad does not.

The selective quoting used to create the sound bite for the banner ad takes Rice's measured, balanced statement (she is quoted extensively in the article and says nothing inflammatory at any point) and transforms it into a threat to stability into the former Soviet space, side by side with a photo designed to make Rice herself look threatening.

I know that RIA has to compete with tabloids for readers on the internet, but it's hard to imagine a western wire service stooping to such tactics to drive up traffic on their website. This bothers me because such misrepresentations, repeated frequently enough, can have an impact on the average internet-surfing Russian's opinion.

Kyrgyz revolution - unintended consequences?

Today's Moscow Times has an opinion piece which is very insightful about the conclusion that the rulers of Kyrgyzstan's neighbors might draw from the events there:

Moscow Times, March 25, 2005
A Revolution of Clashing Colors
By Daan van der Schriek
Journalist Daan van der Schriek, who worked from September to December 2001 with the Times of Central Asia in Kyrgyzstan, is now based in Afghanistan. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

Better not be too soft on your opposition. This is what the leaders must think whose countries border Kyrgyzstan, which is in the grips of revolution or, depending on your view, of thugs. Some have called the protests sparked by disputed elections the "Tulip Revolution," after Georgia's Rose Revolution and Ukraine's Orange Revolution. But opposition leaders seem unable to agree on a name. Small wonder, because the opposition hasn't been able to agree on coordination or cooperation, either. [...]

This is an important difference from events in Georgia and Ukraine: The Kyrgyz revolution lacks leadership and, as a consequence, is more violent. Hopefully, however, the opposition will soon
agree on a policy and keep its supporters in check. They are the authorities now, after state buildings were stormed and Akayev fled Thursday.

What did Kyrgyzstan, an "island of democracy" in a sea of Central Asian dictatorship, as it was called in the early 1990s, do to deserve this? Being more liberal than its neighbors is, paradoxically, part of the answer. This left room for dissent. Thus, it was possible to demonstrate against the nepotism and electoral fraud that became increasingly characteristic of Kyrgyzstan -- which is a pity because everything started so well. [...]

Probably this has idea has been mentioned elsewhere, but this is the first place I've seen it articulated in print. This sort of deflates the triumphalism I've seen on several US right-wing blogs, people crowing about the triumph of democracy. Sorry, guys, what happened in Bishkek is not really related to the "liberation" of Iraq or to any US actions - in fact, I've seen reports that the US played on both sides of this game.

As several more thoughtful bloggers have noted, the proof of the new government will be in the pudding - will we see democratic elections in the near future as promised, or will the opposition-turned-rulers get busy feeding themselves at the corruption trough, a rich tradition in the former Soviet space?

"Avoiding a Russia-vs-West Rift on Kyrgyzstan"

RIA Novosti also has a column in English by Angela Charlton, titled "Avoiding a Russia-vs-West Rift on Kyrgyzstan." Here's the full text (I haven't yet mastered the art of editing these down to one or two key paragraphs):

2005-03-24 17:27
AVOIDING A RUSSIA-VS-WEST RIFT OVER KYRGYZSTAN
PARIS (by columnist Angela Charlton for RIA Novosti) - Is Kyrgyzstan following the footsteps of Ukraine and Georgia, as yet another opposition movement takes to the streets to threaten the status quo?

All three ex-Soviet republics held questionable elections that sparked protests. But dig beneath the surface and the similarities disintegrate. Unlike in Ukraine and Georgia, Kyrgyzstan's demonstrations have already turned violent, scaring away for support for both sides; the opposition lacks a unifying leader; and drug barons and Islamic militants have mingled with the disgruntled activists.

With opposition groups occupying government buildings in Bishkek, international mediation may become necessary to avoid a civil war. Russia and the West don't have to be on opposing sides this time. Joint Russian-US involvement would be the wisest and safest solution for Kyrgyzstan, and for Central Asia as a whole.

Sober minds in Moscow and Washington recognize the dangers of taking sides in the Kyrgyz dispute. It remains to be seen whether they will prevail, or whether Russia and the West will plunge into another round of geopolitical wrangling that leaves beleaguered Kyrgyzstan the victim.

As soon as news of opposition protests over Kyrgyz parliamentary elections broke earlier this month, many western observers gleefully predicted the next post-Soviet revolution. Buoyed by democratic rumblings in the Middle East, American observers especially are eager to see the Ukrainian and Georgian scenarios repeated - and to see stubborn Russia embarrassed yet again in its own backyard.

Some even labeled Akayev an acolyte of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yet Akayev had an iron grip on power well before Putin became president, and the Kremlin has been distancing itself from Akayev for years. Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Federation Council's foreign relations' committee, called Akayev's democratic record "far from ideal" and suggested the Kyrgyz elections were less than perfect.

Unofficial reports say Akayev came to Moscow during the heat of the protests on Sunday, but was denied a meeting with Putin and sent home with a warning to avoid a crackdown. The next day, Akayev was in Kyrgyzstan toeing a softer line, promising a review of the most controversial election results and suggesting negotiations with the opposition were possible.

Moscow appears to have learned some lessons in Ukraine. Russian officials have hosted top Kyrgyz opposition figures, leaving both sides prepared in case regime change in Kyrgyzstan becomes likely. But the Kremlin is taking care not to antagonize Akayev, to avoid repeating what happened in Moldova earlier this year, when a once pro-Moscow president turned against his Russian mentors.

The West's relationship with Kyrgyzstan is more tangled than its relations with Ukraine and Georgia. Akayev was considered the most liberal of Central Asia's presidents in the 1990s, but his democratic reputation soured as he amassed more and more power for his allies. Then he was again in favor in 2001, when Washington needed his permission to install U.S. air bases in Kyrgyzstan for the war in Afghanistan.

Akayev and some Russian observers accuse western sources of funding and fomenting the unrest in Kyrgyzstan. But as the crisis has unfolded, U.S. officials have kept a low profile, unlike they did in Ukraine and Georgia. They appear more concerned with U.S. security interests - and their relationship with China, on Kyrgyzstan's eastern border - than democratic revolutions.

Russia and the United States have more in common when it comes to Kyrgyzstan than both sides seem willing to admit. Both have a military presence there, and both want stability in the region but have reservations about Akayev. Both are determined to retain influence in Central Asia: Moscow wants to keep Washington from gaining the upper hand, and Washington wants to make sure it doesn't become a Russian fiefdom. Facing off over Kyrgyzstan would put both sides' goals at risk.

This looks like a pretty pro-Russian column to me, and as the author seems to be a regular columnist for RIA Novosti that's no surprise. But as I mentioned before, I wasn't following this story until today, so I have little appreciation for the nuances. This point of view is interesting and seems to be backed up by at least a little common sense, which is sometimes in short supply in revolutionary times.

"KYRGYZ CAPITAL LOOKS LIKE OCCUPIED CITY" - the situation in Bishkek, retranslated

Here's the official translation from RIA Novosti's website of the text on which one of the Echo of Moscow reports I posted earlier was based:

2005-03-25 11:22 * KYRGYZSTAN * BISHKEK * SITUATION *
KYRGYZ CAPITAL LOOKS LIKE OCCUPIED CITY
BISHKEK, March 25 (RIA Novosti) - Bishkek sees the second day of the revolution. This night several large supermarkets were plundered and set on fire in the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Groups of people in front of the shops watch scattered goods and condemn the looters. "They were mainly young men, who looked like strangers. However, our neighbors were also among the looters," an elderly woman said resentfully.

There is no flag over the building of presidential administration, whose windows have been broken. There are several tents nearby. People behind the fence dressed like civilians say they are people's guard authorized to control the situation. Police is not seen in the city, and people are astonished at the fact, because the opposition appointed Minister of the Interior earlier.

"There are congratulations on local TV channels that the revolution has won, but I don't know whether I should be glad or not. It is unquiet in the city," a young clerk was quoted as saying. Leaders of the opposition's youth vanguard, Kel Kel (Stand Up and Go), looked bewildered on TV in the morning live program. "Yesterday we carried out a revolution," a girl, wearing glasses and a tie of the opposition's yellow color, said without enthusiasm.

One of the Kel Kel leaders, Timur Aisunov, confessed that the seizure of government buildings was a surprise for them. "We knew that the revolution would follow the scenarios of Ukraine and Georgia. However, we admitted only peaceful manifestation," he said live on TV. The revolutionary youth laid the blame for last night's events on provokers and overthrown officials.
On Friday morning the Kyrgyz parliament is to convene for an emergency session to form the interim government and take measures to restore order. Most stores and gas stations are closed in the city.

I'm posting this because it has additional interesting details, and because of the sensationalist headline. Some of the text is so different from my translation because Echo of Moscow rephrased the original RIA report, then I translated it, whereas the text above is RIA's own (sometimes rather challenged) translation.

More on the Kyrgyzstan situation - "God forbid anyone should have such a revolution"

I heard a few interesting items about the developing revolution in Kyrgyzstan on Echo of Moscow Radio this morning, and can't resist sharing them along with some more recent items from the news on Echo's website (translation by me):

10:32am, 25.03.2005
Kurmanbek Bakiev, who today was designated the acting president and premier of Kyrgyzstan, called on his people to exercise good judgement and tolerance. Bakiev spoke about this today on the main square of Bishkek before two thousand demonstrators.

Meanwhile, Bakiev was able to convince the crowd of protesters to move from near the parliament building to Ala-too Square near the Freedom monument. This was the only place in the city where an ITAR-TASS correspondent saw people in uniform - two soldiers from the honor guard who stand watch over the Kyrgyzstan flag. Neither military nor police officers were to be seen anywhere else in the city.

The acting premier of Kyrgyzstan also proposed that parliament name one of the oppostion leaders, Rosa Otunbaeva, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.


10:04am, 25.03.2005
One of the leaders of the Kyrgyz opposition, Feliks Kulov, has promised to return to prison after order is restored in the country. "As an inmate, I will have to return to jail," said Kulov in a live television broadcast.

Kulov was freed from prison yesterday by opposition activists yesterday after the government building was seized in Bishkek. Kulov is currently coordinating the activities of all military and law enforcement agencies (silovye struktury) in the country, and he was holding a meeting all night.

Now Kulov has addressed the citizens of Kyrgyzstan with a call to support the representatives of law enforcement; according to him, he was shocked at what occurred in Bishkek last night: "God forbid anyone should have such a revolution," said Kulov.


10:03am, 25.03.2005
At least 4 people were killed in Bishkek last night. Over 350 sought medical assistance. Law enforcement agencies are not doing anything, according to press agency reports from the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

The police are nowhere to be seen in the city. According to RIA Novosti, people are surprised that the guardians of law and order seem to have been swallowed up by the earth. The national flag is not waving as usual over the building of the presidential administration with its broken windows. Several booths near the building have been destroyed, and beyond the fence the building is approached and guarded by people in civilian clothes who identify themselves as belonging to the people's militia (narodnaia druzhina).

According to RIA, a looted Bishkek greeted the second day of the revolution amidst the smoke of many fires. Overnight in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, the main supermakets were looted. Near the now-empty stores groups of people are talking about those involved in the prior night's pillaging. "For the most part they were young people, who looked like out-of-towners," said one
elderly woman. "But our neighbors," she added, "were also taking things out of here." Most of the stores and gas stations in Bishkek are closed. The leaders of the opposition youth organization "Get up and go" ("Vstan' i idi") blamed provocateurs and officials of the overthrown government for the prior night's events in an morning broadcast on Kyrgyz television.

Russian journalists have been the victims of attacks. A film crew from the TV channel Moskovia was beaten while filming at night; a mobile phone was taken from them and their vehicle was destroyed. In addition, unknown individuals attacked a REN-TV crew.


10:02am, 25.03.2005
A state of emergency will not be declared in Kyrgyzstan at this time, said the new acting presideng and prime minister, Kurmanbek Bakiev.

Speaking about the members of the new government, he promised that they would all be honorable (dostoinye) people. Bakiev made these statements to the people currently demonstrating near the parliament building.

In Bishkek, near the government bulding, the demonstrators are setting up tents, according to RIA Novisti. The plan is for protest participants to spend the night here. As one of the protesters told RIA, the tents along with a field kitchen and food had been delivered by the country's Ministry of Emergency Situations.

According to opposition reports, a group of some 5,000 people from the Chuisky region is approaching Bishkek. Demonstrators from the southern regions of the country who have learned of the events in the capital are also arriving.

I haven't been following the events closely enough to gauge the level of bias in these reports. It seems like Russians - even the usually evenhanded journalists at Echo of Moscow; although most of these reports look like they were culled from the RIA Novosti and ITAR-TASS wires, which would make them more dubious - might have an interest in portraying this as a chaotic, out-of-control situation. In any event, it looks like things are getting interesting down there.

Apologies for any imprecisions in the translation - I wanted to get this out there quickly.

"This international terrorism is a handy thing!"

Excerpts from an interview of retired Gen-Lt. Leonid Shebarshin, former head of the USSR's foreign intelligence agency and currently president of a consulting company called "Russian National Economic Security Service" - published in Vremia Novostei earlier this week under the headline, "This International Terrorism Is a Handy Thing!" This one I translated myself.

Question: Today Al-Qaeda and its head Bin Laden are the number-one enemies of the international community. Did the KGB in the Soviet era forecast this situation?

Answer: Terrorism is as old as human history. But the concept of "international terrorism," just like the myth about Bin Laden, was born in the USA. Long before the events of September 11th, by the way....The USA has given itself the right to strike anywhere in the world under the pretext of fighting the threat of international terrorism. This battle cry is convenient for certain people in Russia as well, since it explains many negative phenomena. So they say, "It's all the scheming of international terrorists, who even the Americans and the whole internatinal coalition haven't been able to defeat." And criminal activity in Russia remains at an unacceptably high level. This
international terrorism is a handy thing! [...]

Question: What stands behind Al-Qaeda?

Answer: I was talking with an expert from the RAND Corporation who studies Al-Qaeda, and we came to the conclusion that it's not an organization, but rather a notion or an idea. And a battle with this omnipotent, omnipresent, and mysterious myth, entwined with Islam, is very much in the Americans' interests, since it is directed at oil-rich Islamic regions. [...]

Question: But [Bin Laden's] emissaries have been found even in Chechnya.

Answer: The easiest thing is to chalk it all up to Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden! [...]

Chechenization

This is another good piece pulled off Johnson's List. I have excerpted the best parts, though, so I am adding some small value at least... Oh, and here's a link to the original interview in Russian, in case you want to check the translation.

Russkii Kurier, March 24, 2005
RUSSIAN HISTORY IS MADE UP OF MYTHS
An interview with Leonid Mlechin [TV host and author of many books on contemporary political figures] Author: Valeria Valtsova; Translated by A. Ignatkin

Question: What do you think is lacking in our leaders? Why are they unable to solve the problem of Chechnya?

Leonid Mlechin: Because of events in our past, and specifically because of what Stalin did, the war in Chechnya is in fact a war Russia is fighting against its own past. That's what makes the whole situation disastrous and unsolvable. It's possible to win a war against some other country, but winning a war fought against one's own people is very difficult. [...]

What really worries me is that I don't see any attempts to solve the problem of Chechnya. I don't know of any state structure or team of consultants devoted solely to considering what our policy with regard to Chechnya should be. Everything is decided by the security and law enforcement agencies, and they are doing whatever they can. Young Chechens don't associate themselves with Russia. They view themselves as people living on occupied territory. [...]

Question: Aslan Maskhadov was killed in Chechnya recently. In media coverage, the public was reminded of his career of an extremist - but the authorities somehow forgot to mention the fact that in the Yeltsin era, Moscow regarded Maskhadov as the only man capable of putting an end to the war. Why are we so forgetful?

Leonid Mlechin: Our history consists of myths. Consider any incident - the actual events are always different from what was announced afterwards. History is a political instrument. As for Maskhadov himself, he was a guerrilla - but he should have been taken alive and put on trial. For many reasons. First, prosecution must be fair. Second, Maskhadov had answers to a lot of questions. Third, the state should not stoop to the level of its enemies. In any case, Maskhadov was killed. [...]

Question: What is your opinion of the Kremlin's decision to make Ramzan Kadyrov a Hero of Russia?

Leonid Mlechin: I'd say it was a grave error. Such people should not receive state awards. This highest state award has a certain status that must be respected and observed. On the other hand, politics is nothing if not pragmatic. What is happening in Chechnya nowadays reminds me of the Vietnam war. The Americans did their best to make it a war of some Vietnamese against other Vietnamese. That's what I see in Chechnya nowadays. Russia is withdrawing its troops, so as to leave the Chechens themselves fighting each other. Well, somebody probably thinks this is a solution, but it is a solution only if the Chechens are not viewed as a part of our people.

Strategically speaking, it is not a solution at all.

The title of this post is a reference to the unsuccessful US policy of Vietnamization which Mlechin mentioned in the interview. Such a policy is not likely to be any more successful in Chechnya than it was in Vietnam.

Kyrgyzstan

Some important things are clearly happening there. Nathan et al. at Registan.net and Andy at Siberian Light are doing a better job than I ever could (and, I would guess, a better job than the MSM in the US - though that's just a guess) covering the blizzard of updates on the situation that seems to have been coming across the wires Thursday.

Site of the Day - Paleometro.ru

Thanks to Residential Property News magazine for mentioning this site, which chronicles the locations of fossil remnants visible in the building blocks of the Moscow metro, otherwise I never would have found out about it. I am sure Moscow metro buffs and fossil enthusiasts will find this site equally fascinating, and those of you who just like to look at pretty pictures like the one below will also enjoy paying the site a visit. It's in Russian but should be relatively easy to navigate even if you don't know the language.


Photo credit - Alexander Mironenko, http://www.paleometro.ru/

Felgenhauer on Russia losing the Caucasus

This translation of a Pavel Felgenhauer column (below) appeared in JRL today - thank you, David! For the summary, and the hardest hit of the piece, scroll down to the last paragraph, which I've put in bold. The original article can be viewed in Russian here. The Novaya Gazeta website is an excellent resource for opposition commentary and thought, if you are able to read Russian.

Felgenhauer is, as always, disparaging of the current Russian regime, and, as is usually the case, he makes a good case for why this regime is worthy of disparagement. I commented on the impression this sometimes creates in an earlier post. However, his writing is tight - I wanted to cut paragraphs out of this one in order to avoid another long post, but I couldn't find anything to cut. Lean and mean. Check it out:

Novaya Gazeta, No 20, March 21 - 23, 2005
ROLLER-COASTER: Russia will have to withdraw from the Caucasus
Author: Pavel Felgengauer
Translated by A. Ignatkin

Positions of the Russian military in the Caucasus appeared invincible only a decade ago, in 1995. An accord was signed with Azerbaijan on the use of the Gabala radar, an element of the Soviet missile attack early warning system that enabled Moscow to "see" the south. A military-political
alliance with Yerevan, Armenia, was made. Russia had over 15,000 servicemen in Georgia, and Russian border guards manned the border with Turkey in 1995.

Everything has changed. Armenia is choosing between Iran and the United States to lean on because it does not feel it can rely on Moscow, Azerbaijan hopes for establishment of NATO bases on its territory, the parliament of Georgia demands withdrawal of Russian military bases... and Moscow is at a loss.

Retaining all external tokens of military, political, and economic domination of the Caucasus, Moscow has failed to accomplish anything by way of solutions to the Karabakh, Abkhazian, or South Ossetian problems. The parliament of Georgia refused to ratify the treaty on military bases. Efforts to put the conflicts on hold were undertaken, but these efforts did not enable Russia to retain the favorable atmosphere or its own influence.

Hostilities in Chechnya tied up all more or less combat ready units Russia retained and demonstrated the Kremlin's growing military weakness. The Caucasus ruling elites got the impression that Russia was not settling local conflicts first and foremost because it lacked the strength and the will to do so. Traditional economic ties with Moscow maintained the semi-impoverished condition but did not facilitate development of the countries of the region.

In 2002, the Kremlin began distributing Russian passports in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, clearly preparing for annexation of the territories at a more convenient moment. Georgia found itself without a choice because Russian military bases on its territory became the fifth column. That was how official Moscow set up a no-win situation in the Caucasus, a situation in which every new step would only escalate tension. There is lots of military hardware at the Russian bases in Georgia (the 12th in Batumi and the 62nd in Akhalkalaki) - 114 tanks, hundreds of armored personnel carriers and battle infantry vehicles, artillery pieces... only 4,000 or so servicemen, most of them locals.

Mixed formations comprising Russian commanders and local servicemen are not reliable by default. Should the Georgians decide to take over the bases, resistance will be light - if any. The Duma in Moscow is screaming in fury, claiming that Tbilisi must be taught a lesson. How? Russia is tied up in Chechnya where it has to reinforce its troops in fear of Shamil Basayev and Ramzan Kadyrov alike. Even a complete economic blockade of Georgia is impossible. The West will come to Tbilisi's help, and particularly Turkey. Bases in Batumi and Akhalkalaki were established against Turkey, and Ankara will be happy to see them become history. It will only up its own clout with the Caucasus. Along with everything else, the US Senate is determined to demand from Moscow an unconditional withdrawal from Georgia and Trans-Dniester region in return for its membership in the World Trade Organization.

Russia is facing a choice between a hopeless conflict on the one hand and a shameful but rapid withdrawal. Very soon now, Moscow will only retain in the Caucasus small enclaves in Abkhazia and South Ossetia - strategically pointless dens of smugglers and criminals. But even that will not last. Sooner or later, through war or not, but Tbilisi assisted by the West will reestablish its control over them.

As a matter of fact, the Caucasus is but a single example. The growing discrepancy between the weakening capacities and colossal aspirations are decidedly turning Russia into a global laughing stock. The Russians always swell with pride over absolutely anything nowadays only in order to cringe in shame soon afterwards and start whining about dual standards.

George Kennan's legacy and US foreign policy

This outstanding column can be read in full here - and it is worth reading. I wouldn't have seen it except for its inclusion in the always useful and interesting Johnson's Russia List.

Boston Globe, March 22, 2005
If Kennan had prevailed
By James Carroll

THE DEATH last week of George F. Kennan concentrates the mind. The great American statesman was 101 years old. His longevity was second to his influence, though, and a chorus saluted him as the father of ''containment," the foundational idea of US Cold War thinking. But Kennan always insisted that his famous formulations -- the Long Telegram and the ''Mister X" article -- were misunderstood. His warnings about Soviet intentions and ideology, he said, were meant as a call to political action, not military build-up. The threat was less the Red Army than the discontent of impoverished peoples who might turn to Communism.

Beginning almost 50 years ago, Kennan decried the American emphasis on war-readiness at the expense of diplomacy and economic development. Across the US reliance on a massive nuclear arsenal that prompted Moscow to reply in kind. The waste and dangers of the arms race were unnecessary. The arc of Kennan's life suggests that American responses to the Soviet Union could have gone another way. [...]

How we remember the past determines the shape of the future. If Kennan's life reminds us that there was nothing inevitable about the militarized confrontation of the Cold War, it can also help us see an alternative to the belligerent course now being set by Washington. Here is what a Kennan-like preference for political and diplomatic responses over military ones would mean today:

An aggressive movement away from US dependence on nuclear weapons, which is the best way to check proliferation.

Avoiding the militarization of conflict with China, which can needlessly lead to a new Cold War, complete with a rekindled arms race, only now rushing into space.

A prompt end to the war in Iraq, the first step of which is a withdrawal of American forces, paired with a renunciation of all US military bases in the Middle East.

Depriving terrorists of their raison d'etre by defusing Arab and Islamic resentment of American intrusions in the Middle East.

Meeting the gravest threat to national security, which is the global degradation of the environment, by renewing structures of international cooperation.

Bush administration policies run in an exactly opposite direction from the way shown by the life of George Kennan.

As with communism in the early days of the Cold War, we have made a transcendent enemy for ourselves with ''terrorism," imagining a globally organized, ideologically driven threat that far exceeds what actually exists. We have made an idol of a particular notion of ''freedom," forgetting again that freedom from hunger and disease is what the vast majority of humans long for. Once more, we fail to see the ways in which American-style freedom includes dehumanized elements(violence, prurience, greed) that others might properly resist. [...]

George F. Kennan was a good man. Despite himself, he helped launch his nation down a dangerous road. In regretting that, he spent his life calling for another way. The ultimate ''realist," he legitimized the idealist's dream. War is not the answer. America can honor this prophet by heeding him at last.

Marching Together, lazily

It looks like after media debacles early in the group's history, where rank-and-file "youth activists" ostensibly affiliated with Marching Together - a.k.a., Walking Together, Moving Together, Idushchie Vmeste in Russian - were interviewed at demonstrations and told the press that they had been deceived about the purpose of the event or promised freebies for attending, the organization has decided to take the very simple step of preventing the press from talking to participants in its demonstrations:

BBC Monitoring
Pro-Putin youth group protests against "pornographic" Russian opera
Source: Ekho Moskvy radio, Moscow, in Russian 0800 gmt 14 Mar 05

[Presenter] Any minute now the [pro-Putin youth] movement Marching Together will begin a picket outside the Bolshoy Theatre. They are protesting against the staging of an opera with a libretto by [well-known author] Vladimir Sorokin. Now we join our correspondent Nataliya (?Shapel). Good morning Natasha. [Passage omitted] What's happening now at the Bolshoy Theatre?

[Correspondent] [...] We managed to talk to the deputy leader of Marching Together, Boris Yakemenko. He said that he hasn't actually read Vladimir Sorokin's libretto himself, but he is against the opera being staged at the Bolshoy Theatre. "I'm protesting because I think Vladimir Sorokin is a pornographer", he said. This is why he doesn't want to see the opera on the Bolshoy Theatre's stage.

As for the opinions of the young protesters, unfortunately we can't give you any information. As soon as I try to approach one of them, people move them away and won't allow journalists to talk to them. I asked Boris Yakemenko why this is the case. He said these people don't have the right to give interviews. So unfortunately we haven't been able to hear the personal opinions of the protesters.

[Presenter] Thank you. That was our correspondent Nataliya (?Shapel). I can add that the management of the Bolshoy Theatre reject the accusations made by Marching Together. They say that the opera, "The Children of Rosenthal" is not morally offensive. [Passage omitted]

This is simple. Now the "protesters" are transported to the spot of the "demonstration" and/or promised some benefit for participating as before, except that they are told in no uncertain terms that they are not to talk to the press. This means there will be no more stories like this classic one from a few years ago:

Wall Street JournalMay 29, 2001
Efforts to Indoctrinate Russian Youths With Love for Putin Has Mixed Results
By GUY CHAZAN Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

MOSCOW -- Building a personality cult isn't easy these days. Not even in Russia. Witness the youth rally held May 7 to mark the first anniversary of Vladimir Putin's inauguration. It looked like a great success: 11,000 youngsters wearing T-shirts with portraits of Mr. Putin over the punny slogan Vsyo putyom! -- Everything's hunky-dory! -- gathered on Red Square waving Russian flags and chanting "Ross-i-ya!" and "Poo-tin!"

The event was organized by Walking Together, a new youth movement that is unabashedly pro-presidential. Some participants seemed to have fun. Others hated it so much it put them right off both Walking Together and Mr. Putin.

"I didn't want to go on a demonstration," says Alexei, an English student from the Black Sea town of Taganrog, who refused to give his last name. "They said there were going to be rock stars and Olympic champions. All we got were a couple of people making speeches, and we could hardly
hear them anyway." [...]

So far, 45,000 young people nationwide have answered the call [and joined Walking Together]. Members are asked to set up so-called drug-free zones in schools, with military-style checkpoints and 24-hour patrols, and take part in subbotniks, voluntary collective cleanups that used to be a springtime ritual in the Communist era. Then, to sugarcoat this rather bitter pill, they get a range of eye-catching freebies: free pagers and Internet access, free movie and theater tickets, free horse riding, roller skating and martial arts.

It is this combination of carrot and stick that attracted Alexei from Taganrog. He liked the free gifts -- though he did raise an eyebrow when asked to take part in local demonstrations against NTV, the independent television channel renowned for its criticism of the Kremlin, and in support of Pavel Borodin, the Kremlin official briefly imprisoned in New York and extradited to Switzerland to face money-laundering charges. "Odd, considering they said they were apolitical," Alexei says.

Still, he had few objections when the local leadership of Walking Together offered him a trip to Moscow. Alexei and some 900 other young people from Taganrog signed up. It isn't every day you get a chance to visit the capital for free, after all.

But the trip was a nightmare. "We were put in this clapped-out old train, in third-class carriages, nine to a compartment, without water or bedding, and slept in rotation, like convicts," says Alexei. "It was so bad you just wanted to throw yourself out the window."

They arrived in Moscow after a hellish 26-hour journey and walked to Red Square. After an hour or so listening to boring speakers, Alexei and his friends slunk off to do some sightseeing instead.

The return journey to Taganrog was equally unpleasant. Walking Together officials carried out raids, searching people's luggage for alcohol and Putin T-shirts. "They wanted to check we hadn't sold them to tourists or swapped them for a beer," he says.

Alexei wasn't the only person upset by the May 7 rally. Liberal politicians said the event brought back dark memories of the Komsomol, the old Communist Youth League, once a bastion of Soviet-style indoctrination. One lawmaker said it was like a demonstration for North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il.

Mr. Yakemenko denies he is trying to create a personality cult -- though he admits he is a fan of Vladimir Putin. "He's the only person who can consolidate society and drag Russia out of the moral swamp it's in right now," he says.

Alexei from Taganrog doesn't agree. "I might have supported Putin before, but certainly not now," he says. "They think they can just buy our votes with free trips to Moscow. They're wrong."

Creating the illusion of a protest is much easier than actually educating young people about the issues and convincing them to go out and protest. Of course, the tradition of creating elaborate illusions for political purposes dates back centuries in Russia.

Note that Yakemenko remains the head of this organization - if he can't be troubled to read the libretto of the opera they're now protesting against, we can assume the rank-and-file protest participants are even less informed about what they're actually doing there. But the press is no longer allowed to talk to them, so their ignorance can't be exposed. Hence, "Marching Together, lazily" - this has to be the most intellectually lazy youth movement ever.

Yakemenko may not have sufficient interest in the issues read up on the cultural phenomena against which organizes protests. However, he has not been lazy at all in organizing - no doubt at the direction of his Kremlin masters - a new youth movement, "Nashi," which has been the subject of some controversy already. More about that in a later post.

Waiting in the metro

It's time to throw a few photographs into the mix. This is a series of pictures of people doing what people spend lots of time in the metro doing: waiting - for the next train, or perhaps for someone special. Some of these are better than others, but they all seem to fit the "waiting" theme:


Mayakovskaya, 2:26pm, Feb. 27.


Tverskaya, 2:28pm, Feb. 27.


Kuznetsky Most, 11:16pm, Feb. 28.


Chistye Prudy, 12:22am, March 1.


Kuznetsky Most, 12:32am, March 1.


Kuznetsky Most, 12:30am, March 1


Belorusskaya (ring line), 12:49pm, March 2.

Tribute - George Kennan

American Russia specialist George Kennan passed away the other day, and there were obituaries from the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times, and the Washington Post, among others (the links should take you to the articles, though NYT and WP require registration). The NYT and WP obituaries are both extensive, interesting, and worth reading. Kennan was a wise man (if not one of the "wise men") in a field which unfortunately seems to be increasingly dominated by mediocre bureaucrats and short-sighted political hacks.

"...they have not yet lost more than they have gained."

I read a very enjoyable book (at least for a bibliophile) last week - Sixpence House by Paul Collins. One passage seemed to me to be relevant to Russia's situation today (as a former empire, even though Collins was discussing a different former empire) and the situation in which the US might find itself in a few decades:

Americans do not know nostalgia for their country in the ways that Britons do, for they have not yet lost more than they have gained....How many Americans leave America, as opposed to those coming in? Even now, the fraction must be minuscule. And has it ever been much different? How many people willingly left Rome at its height, I wonder? Or London, a hundred years ago? Empires have their own gravitational force, which inescapably pulls all objects toward their core. And then, when their mass is spent, the objects float away.

Someday, when the United States is a has-been, then we too shall know that indescribably British feeling; except that then it will be known as that indescribably American feeling. It is the sensation of being a fat bag of sand with a little hole in the bottom, slowly draining out. It has become impossible to live [in Britain] without being reminded of a past that is palpably gone: it creeps over you in the most ludicrously inconspicuous places.

Is it not impossible to live in Russia today without noticing countless little reminders of the USSR? This is true especially outside of Moscow, where Lenin statues and hammers and sickles were not cleansed with the thoroughness applied on the streets of the capital, or in the Moscow metro.

Sex sells...

...and nowhere is this old advertising truism truer than when it comes to selling cell phones.


Cell phone ad - my 242nd - 8:00pm, March 9, Tverskaya St.

In this ad, for NEC's model e242 mobile phone, the brunette is whispering to the blonde, "I've got the 242 [model number cell phone]!"

However, this phrase could also just as correctly be translated as, "He's my 242nd!" That would explain the blonde's scandalized look...

Sleeping underground

Homeless person sleeping, Belorusskaya metro station (Lesnaya St. entrance),
11:12am, March 12, 2005.

"...time after time, their plans go awry."

Siberian Light has an interesting post today discussing an article in the Guardian alleging that Russia is sheltering Bosnian war ciminals. The commentary by Andy is right on target:

So far there has been no comment from Russia regarding these allegations. I'm fairly certain that they'll turn out to be true, though. Russia has been suspected of harbouring war criminals for a while and I'm only surprised it has taken this long for evidence to come out. If the allegations really are true, the only word I think of to describe Russia's actions is 'stupid'. [...]

The whole idea of harbouring war criminals seems to be indicative of a general trend in Russian foreign policy of short-sighted short-termism. Time after time Russia is making stupid foreign policy decisions and blithely assuming that things will go well. This wouldn't be such a problem if there was someone in their Foreign Ministry had the ability to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Sadly though, there isn't anybody in Russia with that ability and, time after time, their plans go awry.

This can also be seen as an example of Russia playing on one side of an issue abroad (in this case, signing the Dayton Agreement and supporting the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia) and on the opposite side at home. One could argue that harboring ethnic Serb war criminals is equal parts foreign and domestic policy, insofar as it plays to the Slavic nationalist base. Although this specific instance of pan-Slavic support is obviously not something that has been publicized before, I am sure that if the issue gets substantial coverage it will be turned by political groups like Rodina into another excuse for anti-Western rhetoric.

Why Russian TV is important

The survey covered in this Moscow Times article, accessible via Johnson's Russia List, highlights precisely why the restriction of free expression and multiple viewpoints on Russia's national TV channels (a theme which I have covered in the past) is so detrimental to democracy in Russia and so upsetting - the channels are tremendously influential in shaping public opinion:

Moscow Times, March 15, 2005
"To Join the Elite, It's TV That Counts," By Nabi Abdullaev

It's not how powerful you are but how much coverage you get on television. That was the finding of a recent opinion poll that asked Russians across the country to name the most influential personalities in politics, business, culture and science.

Unsurprisingly, respondents readily picked President Vladimir Putin as the most powerful politician and pop diva Alla Pugachyova as the leading cultural figure. [...]

Many respondents were unable to name a single scientist, leading to a top- 10 list that bunched together Nobel Prize winners with dead scientists, television hosts and a hostage negotiator.

The sometimes startling answers are a direct result of television, which is the sole information source for many people these days, said Irina Palilova, a sociologist with the Levada Center, the independent polling agency that carried out the survey.

"This poll reflects that people just don't understand what the elite is and can only come up with names of figures who are popular in the media," said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, head of the Center for the Study of the Elite in the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Members of the elite are those who rule and decide, but the public knows little about those people," she said.

As such, Putin was followed on the list of the political elite by ultranationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, whose fist-waving antics are often shown on television. Third place went to Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, whose complaints about government social reforms got significant television coverage in January, when the poll was conducted. Also on the list were State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov (4), liberal politician Irina Khakamada (5), Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov (7), and one-time political heavyweights Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky (9) and Mayor Yury Luzhkov (10).

After Pugachyova, the list of cultural figures included Oscar-winning film director Nikita Mikhalkov, crooner Iosif Kobzon, comedian Yevgeny Petrosyan and pop singer Nikolai Baskov. Not a single writer, artist or philosopher made it into the cultural top 10.

"The cultural elite is only identified as those who are stars," said Vera Zvereva, a culture researcher with the Institute of General History. [...]

Only 67 percent of respondents were able to name anyone in the scientific community. In the end, Nobel-winning physicist Zhores Alfyorov topped the list of scientific elite, while the late Nobel Peace Prize winner Alexander Sakharov placed third and Nobel-winning physicist Vitaly Ginzburg placed fifth.

The list also included physicist Sergei Kapitsa, who hosts a TV science show (2); the late eye doctor [and former presidential candidate] Svyatoslav Fyodorov (4); pediatrician Leonid Roshal, who assisted in negotiations during the Dubrovka and Beslan hostage crises (6); and animal television show host Nikolai Drozdov (8). The science list was rounded off by Moscow State University rector Viktor Sadovnichy (9) and, bizarrely, Nobel Prize-winning author Alexander Solzhenitsyn (10).

The survey asked 1,600 people in 46 regions to name five or six people who they believed were members of the nation's political, cultural, economic and scientific elite. The margin of error was less than 3 percentage points.

I suppose television is the "sole information source for many people these days" for many in America and Western Europe as well, but these are countries where television channels (if not individually, then taken as a group) present the news in a more or less balanced fashion. Not so in 21st-century Russia. The wide-open media window of the '90's has slammed shut.