Much as Putin called for a resounding victory for United Russia in the Duma elections, he has arranged a resounding endorsement for his apparent heir-apparent, Dmitry Medvedev. At a televised meeting between involving four of the parties that participated in the recent elections - party of power United Russia, Kremlin creation Fair Russia, the Agrarian Party, and the Civil Force party - as well as Putin himself, Medvedev received an endorsement from all present.
There is, of course, lots of reaction to this
news already. The Russian
stock market has surged - Gazprom, where Medvedev is Chairman of the Board, is up 3% - and I have to say that in the imperfect world of Russian politics a smooth transition to a Medvedev administration may be the best possible outcome for anyone concerned about continued growth and stability in Russia. Medvedev's involvement in corporate Russia predates his involvement with Gazprom - he was head of legal affairs at SPB-based timbercompany Ilim Pulp for most of the 1990s - and fits with his the "moderate liberal / technocrat" label generally applied to Medvedev's politics.
The market's favorable reaction to this news may also reflect a sense of relief that the succession process is moving forward. There have been a lot of rumblings about unseemly "
under-the-carpet" battles taking place among top officials lately (with baffling and disturbing public manifestations like the
affair surrounding the Shvartsman interview, and the arrest of
Storchak), and perhaps having a successor-designate in place reduces the sense that Putin's departure is leaving a huge vacuum.
Looking ahead, this may also be good news for the future of the US-Russian relationship, both because making money is one thing both countries agree on and because of who Medvedev is
not - a hawk like Sergei Ivanov. But who knows - the past few months have been all about surprises and the expectation of more surprises, so this apparent outcome (an anointed successor from among the two candidates who have been in play for at least a year now), because it's one which might have been expected six months ago, is in itself a bit of a surprise.
On the other hand, there's still plenty of time for more twists and turns as the "2008 question" works its way to a resolution. And perhaps Medvedev in the Kremlin would be ideal - young and easily packaged for voters, palatable to big business and to the outside world, and apparently very manageable. According to
Limonov (not that he's an unbiased, or even sane, source):
It is well known that within Putin's entourage Medvedev is called "son," apparently, because of his obedience to Putin. The fact that he has practically been appointed president means the continuation of chekist-oligarchic rule in Russia.
From the Moscow Times profile of Medvedev, titled "
A Soft-Spoken, 'Smart Kid' Lawyer":
None of Dmitry Medvedev's friends can remember hearing him bark an order. If he ever did, it would sound forced, they said. Soft-spoken and a full 10 centimeters shorter than the diminutive President Vladimir Putin, Medvedev is a far cry from what the public expects in a leader, political consultants said.
Lenta.ru recalls the shifting fortunes of Medvedev and Ivanov over the course of 2006 and 2007 in
this commentary - perhaps we shouldn't be to quick to pronounce Medvedev the successor, since he already looked to have it in the bag in 2006, only to seem surpassed byIvanov earlier this year. But time is running out another twist of fortune. From the
Lenta piece, which is titled, simply, "The Successor" (my translation):
Observers by now were expecting all sorts of surprises. Few believed any longer that the successor would be from the group of long-discussed candidates. Some thought that Zubkov would become a "technical" president, who would stay in office for a year or two and then resign so that Putin could once again head the government. But as it turned out a different scenario has played out. [...]
If nothing extraordinary happens, Medvedev's victory in the presidential elections is, of course, guaranteed. Experts agree that this would mean the very continuation of the course of Russia's development that Putin and the members of United Russia have been talking about so much. Gryzlov called Medvedev the "most socially oriented" of the potential candidates, and United Russia representatives had earlier said on multiple occasions that in the Fifth Duma they plan to focus on social issues. Economic analysts call Medvedev a liberal, which, in theory, should be appealing to Western investors.
The New Times asks, "
Who is Mr Medvedeff?" in an article which headlines his intelligentsia background and traces his rise to power in 1990s St. Petersburg and later in the Putin administration (my translation):
According to many accounts, during those years [the early '90s] people often thought Medvedev was Putin's personal secretary and did not take him seriously. According to Stanislav Belkovsky, "Dmitry Anatol'evich, who is pliant, soft, and psychologically dependent, was psychologically always absolutely comfortable for Vladimir Vladimirovich, and for [Putin] that is extremely important." [...]
Medvedev's new life begain in November 1999, when he became the deputy head of the government administration while Putin was Prime Minister. Immediately following Boris Yeltsin's historic speech and his "abdication of the throne," Medvedev became the deputy head of the Presidential Administration, with the idea that he would later replace Aleksandr Voloshin. Voloshin and Roman Abramovich, according to Stanislav Belkovsky, proposed Medvedev for the job, and when Voloshin was stepping down three years later as head of the administration (in large part in protest over the Yukos case), he insisted that he be replaced by Medvedev (who also talked about the authorities' actions in the Yukos case as "not thought all the way through").
Putin himself has admitted that he planned to make Medvedev head of the Federal Securities Commission (according to some accounts, he wanted to have Dmitry Kozak head up the administration). If that had happened, Dmitry Anatol'evich could have gotten his hands on some "real" work, like his friend and partner Anton Ivanov did. It's no accident that Medvedev resembles a young top manager or financial director... And then today there wouldn't be the official Medvedev, there would be Medvedeff, the head of a division of some large Western investment bank. And he would have parted ways with Putin once and for all, not counting Christmas cards sent from Moscow to London and from London to Moscow.
But Putin needed a reliable person in the Kremlin, moreover Medvedev did not irritate the Yeltsin-era elite either. That's how the idea emerged to make him the president's heir: Medvedev was chosen as a compromise and practically ideal figure, acceptable to everyone. By many accounts, the idea took shape in the fall of 2005. By November of 2005, Medvedev was appointed first deputy Prime Minister, and in the spring of 2006 he was supposed to become Prime Minister. However every action, as is well known, leads to an equal and opposite reaction.
New Times then talks a bit about how Igor Sechin and his allies in the administration worked against Medvedev, but that part of the story is not very well developed. No doubt there will be copious speculative accounts about how this is a "victory" for this or that faction of the Kremlin elites.
Other internet resources about the apparent heir-apparent (I like that phrase, can you tell?):
Vladimir Pribylovsky's Anticompromat has a thorough
bio and a
clippings file. Just yesterday, Pribylovsky had
speculated that Valentina Matviyenko might be the designated successor.
Robert Amsterdam has
posted excerpts from Medvedev's "most official 'keynote' address."
NewsRu.com has an
interesting agglomeration of stories about Medvedev, including his comments on the use of "olbansky" (a corrupted version of Russian used on the internet) and his affinity for Deep Purple. It also cites a fresh joke from the
website Dirty.ru, which also has this picture of a stunned Medvedev:
"Independent observers from Turkmenistan, Belarus, and Kazakhstan have already declared that the Russian Presidential elections were a free and open expression of the will of the Kremlin."
Indeed, the news did not take long to make it on to the
Kremlin's website (which, interestingly, does not seem to have a text of Putin's scathingly anti-Western Luzhniki speech) and
United Russia's website (which does have the
Luzhniki speech), with both accounts including Putin's comment:
As far as the candidacy of Dmitry Anatol'evich Medvedev, I can say that I have known him for more than 17 years, we have worked very closely together for all of those years, and I wholly and entirely support this choice.
*Believe it or not, I wrote this Godfather reference before seeing Sean's similar reference in his post about
the anointing of Medvedev - I guess it's not a surprising reference, given the context.
**Upd 20 minutes later - This story seems to be generating unoriginal thoughts - I just saw that Mr. Shedd, the A
ccidental Russophile, beat me to the punch in using the "Preved, Medved" headline in
his post about the news, although I think we were both beaten by
hundreds or thousands of Russian bloggers. Sorry to step on your toes, Wally! By the way, in case there's anyone on the internets who still doesn't know the "Preved" story,
Wikipedia seems to have it covered.
***Upd another 30 minutes later (clearly poking around on the internet in the guise of "following a breaking story" is more fun than studying for exams) - I had forgotten about
this story, but maybe Medvedev's designation means that Putin has worked out a way to stay in power, and it will be as the head of a
new Russia-Belarus Union, which
could be announced while Putin is in Belarus this week. That is just one of the versii put forward in
Reuters' speculative "fact box" about what job(s) Putin might find for himself once he has removed the monomakh's hat of the presidency.
Actually, regardless of the details, if the announcement Medvedev as successor turns out to be the last word, and Dmitry Anatol'evich takes the Kremlin in the first round of elections, it's pretty likely that today's announcement was the consequence of some deal finally being struck - just like big-time politics anywhere else, right?
Also, I can't not post this reaction to the news, apparently created back in 2006, the last time that Medvedev was heir apparent: