The reason for mezuza

In parashat vaeschanan, we encounter the mitzvah to put parchment, inscribed with certain words of Torah, on our doorposts. Devarim 6:9:

8. And you shall bind them for a sign upon your hand, and they shall be for ornaments between your eyes.		ח. וּקְשַׁרְתָּם לְאוֹת עַל יָדֶךָ וְהָיוּ לְטֹטָפֹת בֵּין עֵינֶיךָ:
9. And you shall inscribe them upon the doorposts of your house and upon your gates.		ט. וּכְתַבְתָּם עַל מְזוּזֹת בֵּיתֶךָ וּבִשְׁעָרֶיךָ:

Why should we do this? Is it an amulet? Is it a protective measure?

Well, Rambam states rather clearly that one should not regard the mezuzah as an amulet:

… אבל אלו שכותבין מבפנים שמות המלאכים או שמות קדושים או פסוק או חותמות הרי הן בכלל מי שאין להם חלק לעולם הבא, שאלו הטפשים לא די להם שבטלו המצוה אלא שעשו מצוה גדולה שהיא יחוד השם של הקב”ה ואהבתו ועבודתו כאילו הוא קמיע של הניית עצמן כמו שעלה על לבם הסכל שזהו דבר המהנה בהבלי העולם.

… But those who write inside [the mezuzah] the names of angels or holy names or a verse or seals, such people are in the category of those who have no portion in the World to Come.  For these idiots, it is not enough for them that they have [through these actions] negated a positive mitzvah [by invalidating the mezuzah], but they have turned an important mitzvah –viz., the unification of God’s name and the love of God and the worship of God – and made it like it were a kemiya, a magical amulet, whose function is to serve their personal needs, as they tend to think in their foolish thoughts that this [mezuzah] is a thing that affords them benefit in meaningless worldly things.

Rambam, Laws of Mezuzah 5:4

Yet, there are clearly those who so regard it, or else the Rambam would not have to make such a strong contrary statement. Indeed, in the gemara in Menachot 33, there are two positions, one (Rabanan) which stresses the psychological impact of encountering it as one enters one's home, while the other (R' Chanina of Sura) regards it as a protective measure of the entire home. They thus had both 'rationalists' and non-rationalists even in the days of the gemara. Of course, one can explain that it is Hashem who protects the house, and in the merit of keeping his commandments.

For more of a background on this, see this post at The Daily Daf, and this article in Tradition: Mezuzah: Protective Amulet or Religious Symbol.

Here is how I would explain it, both tefillin and mezuzah. We are taking the word of Hashem, His law and His instruction, and binding it on our arm. The arm / hand is the means by which we act in this world. And so we are committing ourselves to acting in accordance with Hashem's will. We also bind it on our head-pate, 'between the eyes'. This might be cast as binding our minds, our selves, to Hashem. We give him our obedience.

Then, we also write these words on the doorposts of our house and on our gates. There was, in the ancient world, family law and city law. Certain things were taken care of in the home. And, as I have suggested, the function of ben sorer umoreh was to move extreme punishments from the realm of possibly biased family law into the public sphere, to the gates of the city where the courts met. The perpetual servant is brought to the doorpost, because that is where he is binding himself until Yovel. And when Boaz wanted to arrange for the marriage of Rut, he organized people at the gate of the city.

Thus, writing these words on the doorposts expresses a commitment to follow Hashem's word in the private realm. Writing these words on the doorposts of our gates expresses a commitment to follow Hashem's word in the public sphere.

Of course, that this is the meaning does not eliminate the need for physically doing it. The Karaites don't wear tefillin or put on mezuzah, because they view the metaphorical message as purely metaphorical. They compare it to Mishlei 3:3's instruction to write truth and justice on the tablet of your heart.

But one need not resort to that. Many ritual actions have deep, meaningful imports, whether overt to us or not. Why physically break the eglah arufa's neck? There is action paired with meaning, whatever it may be. We perform physical bris milah, even though in parashat Ekev, we have the pasuk וּמַלְתֶּם, אֵת עָרְלַת לְבַבְכֶם; וְעָרְפְּכֶם--לֹא תַקְשׁוּ, עוֹד. And we would physically pierce the ear of the perpetual servant. So I would regard these commandments to bind here and there, and write here and there.

Related, see how Isis wearing tefillin increases my emunas chachamim. And this other post, in the comment section, where I converse with a Karaite. We have a tradition on Bein Enecha as head-pate which is confirmed by an ANE text, the Chronicles of Baal. This is not something one would expect were the inteny only metaphorical, with no physical tradition of tefillin from rather early on.

The Rashbam is a different story. The Karaites love to cite him in this context, for here is a Rabbinite who says like them! Here is what the Rashbam writes, on Shemot 13:9, where just tefillin is under discussion:

פסוק ט 
לאות על ידך - לפי עומק פשוטו:
יהיה לך לזכרון תמיד, כאלו כתוב על ידך. כעין, שימני כחותם על לבך. 

I will make the pretty straightforward assumption that by omek peshuto, he means peshat, and not some deeper level. He maintains that le'ot al yadecha means that it should be as a constant remembrance, as if it were written on your hand, in the same manner as {Shir Hashirim 8:6}:

ו  שִׂימֵנִי כַחוֹתָם עַל-לִבֶּךָ, כַּחוֹתָם עַל-זְרוֹעֶךָ--כִּי-עַזָּה כַמָּוֶת אַהֲבָה, קָשָׁה כִשְׁאוֹל קִנְאָה:  רְשָׁפֶיהָ--רִשְׁפֵּי, אֵשׁ שַׁלְהֶבֶתְיָה.

6 Set me as a seal upon thy heart, as a seal upon thine arm; for love is strong as death, jealousy is cruel as the grave; the flashes thereof are flashes of fire, a very flame of the LORD.

I don't have to agree with Rashbam's assessment, of course. I could probably point out at least one disagreement I have with his interpretation on every parsha. But I would still point out that Rashbam did put on tefillin every day with a bracha. And further, if you asked him whether this was a mitzvah deoraysa he was fulfilling, he would almost certainly answer you in the affirmative. For many medieval Jewish commentators, peshat does not mean the one true meaning, where everything else is just made up or an error. Rather, the text was written to be understood on multiple levels. The "derash" of the pasuk referring to tefillin was just as intended by its Divine Author, but runs parallel to the peshat level of the text. This gives him the 'excuse' to interpret the text, all over the place, contrary to decided halacha, and yet not be a Karaite.

Samaritan astrology

I just spotted an AFP article about Samaritan astrology. Of course, all other methods are superstition, but what they do is legitimate.

"We do not believe in sorcery, reading palms or coffee grounds or performing exorcism," he said. "All this is baseless quackery."
"We practise astrology by asking the name of the mother, the husband or wife, and we predict illness, marital breakdown or loss of work."
Samir, who started studying the ancient arts at the age of 12, says that each letter of a person's name has meaning and that the 22 letters of the ancient Hebrew alphabet used by Samaritans each correspond to a body part.

Heh.

In this week's parsha, we read:
כג  כִּי לֹא-נַחַשׁ בְּיַעֲקֹב, וְלֹא-קֶסֶם בְּיִשְׂרָאֵל; כָּעֵת, יֵאָמֵר לְיַעֲקֹב וּלְיִשְׂרָאֵל, מַה-פָּעַל, אֵל. 23 For there is no enchantment with Jacob, neither is there any divination with Israel; now is it said of Jacob and of Israel: 'What hath God wrought!'

I suppose this is OK, since they are not Jacob nor Israel.

There is also this gem:

The Samaritan capability for divination, he says, comes from their reputed descent from the Israelite tribe of Levi -- the tribe of the biblical character Joseph who, according to scripture, interpreted dreams for the Egyptian pharaoh.

The Biblical character Joseph gave forth the two tribes, Ephraim and Menashe. Levi was Joseph's brother, and he gave forth the tribe of Levi.

Excellent reporting, Majeda El Batsh and AFP!

(Besides all this, there is a definite agenda to the article, which is the deligitimization of the Jewish people and by extension the state of Israel.)

Was Korach a Gilgul of Kayin or of Yisro? Also, the earliest Torah code, perhaps known to Rishonim!

Summary: One kabbalistic source says Kayin, and one says Yisro? Can they be harmonized?

Post: Gilgul is likely a foreign superstitious import, as Rav Saadia Gaon asserts. Yet is is deeply embedded in kabbalah.




Thus, in this week's parsha, Rabbi Menachem Tziyuni (a mid-14th century kabbalist -- see Daat's Encyclopedia Yehudit), we read:

Thus, he will hint to us as he has himself received. The pasuk stated {Bereshit 9}:

ו  שֹׁפֵךְ דַּם הָאָדָם, בָּאָדָם דָּמוֹ יִשָּׁפֵךְ:  כִּי בְּצֶלֶם אֱלֹהִים, עָשָׂה אֶת-הָאָדָם.

6 Whoso sheddeth man's blood, by man shall his blood be shed; for in the image of God made He man.

and this means within that man himself. And since you drowned someone, you were drowned, etc. And so too Hevel killed Kayin {and?} in the days of Moshe and the death of Korach was via swallowing {up in the earth} as midah keneged middah, as is known. And just as Korach investigated and darshened in the warf {shesi}, place the woof {erev} and you will find a wondrous secret.

I don't know what the secret is. However, I have my unfounded suspicions. And I am not a kabbalist and not privy to their secrets and their methods, but I can try to make an semi-educated guess.

Where was Korach choker vedoresh? In "Vayikach Korach". That is where Chazal explain that he had various arguments based on a techeles string on a beged entirely of techeles, or based on a mezuzah on a room entirely full of sefarim.

And if we form a matrix, counting certain letters across (=the warp, the shesi), we will find one secret. And if we then move down the matrix, counting certain letters down (=the woof, the erev) we will find another aspect. Shesi veErev means horizontally and vertically. I don't know that this is a Torah code, but the language can support it. And the Gra, a kabbalist, had various insights based on skipping letters.

Reuven Wolfeld writes the following insight in Truth in Numbers: Insights Into the Book of Bereshis:

There is thus a 'Torah Code' that brings in Kayin and Hevel, just here in the beginning of Korach. That is, highlighting Kayin in red and Hevel in blue:

א  וַיִּקַּח קֹרַח, בֶּן-יִצְהָר בֶּן-קְהָת בֶּן-לֵוִי; וְדָתָן וַאֲבִירָם בְּנֵי אֱלִיאָב, וְאוֹן בֶּן-פֶּלֶת--בְּנֵי רְאוּבֵן.

1 Now Korah, the son of Izhar, the son of Kohath, the son of Levi, with Dathan and Abiram, the sons of Eliab, and On, the son of Peleth, sons of Reuben, took men;

This is an ELS skip of five followed by an ELS skip of two. Here is a graph I put together to demonstrate it:

My guess is that he is not speaking of Hevel at all; rather, just start your count from Vayikach Korach and arrange it as a matrix of five across. And then count words going vertically down. Thus, you have the horizontal plain text and the vertical secret text. And we are only supposed to go three rows down. Hevel is not part of it, since it does not form a vertical. Maybe you can form the words החי and קבר working vertically in those three rows.

I don't know how Hevel specifically killed Kayin in the days of Moshe, except if Moshe Rabbenu is the gilgul of Hevel. And that is how I have seen it reported.

I'll just make explicit what was otherwise implicit. Surely this pasuk is a part of it. In Bereishit 4:

יא  וְעַתָּה, אָרוּר אָתָּה, מִן-הָאֲדָמָה אֲשֶׁר פָּצְתָה אֶת-פִּיהָ, לָקַחַת אֶת-דְּמֵי אָחִיךָ מִיָּדֶךָ.

11 And now cursed art thou from the ground, which hath opened her mouth to receive thy brother's blood from thy hand.

In both places the ground swallowed them up, in Bereishit Hevel and in Korach, Kayin. And this is the midah keneged midah that Tziyuni was speaking about.

On the other hand, according to the Arizal, Moshe was Hevel's gilgul and Yisro was Kayin's gilgul. Thus:

The Arizal reveals for us a fascinating a piece of information which can provide us with a deeper understanding of several points in the beginning of Parshas Yisro. The Arizal writes that Moshe was a gilgul (reincarnation) of Hevel and Yisro was a gilgul of Kayin. His student Rav Chaim Vital notes that this is hinted to by the first letters of the words “Ani chosencha Yisro” – I am your father-in-law Yisro – which spell the word “achi” – my brother.

I would note a more straightforward derivation that this roshei teivos hint. According to the Mechilta, Yisro had seven names. Two of them were Chever and Keini, presumably based on חבר הקיני, husband of Yael. If Yisro is קיני, that he is Kayin.

Can two people simultaneously be someone's gilgul. Someone asked that question, Rabbi Yaakov Shlomo Weinberg:

Although he rarely spoke on these matters, the Mashgiach, Mori V’Rebbi Horav Dovid Kronglas zt”l, once mentioned that Korach was a gilgul (reincarnation)  of Kayin. (Indeed, they both fell because of the trait of jealousy. ) It’s also brought in seforim (books) that Moshe was a gilgul of Hevel. (Moshe is an acronym – in Hebrew – of Moshe, Shes  and Hevel .) Regarding Kayin, the pasuk (verse) states, “…min ho’adomoh asher potzetzoh es pihoh…”   (You are cursed from the ground which opened its mouth to take the blood of your brother from your hand.) Regarding Korach it says, “…upotzetzoh ho’adomoh es pihoh…”   That which Kayin did to Hevel, Moshe/Hevel did midoh k’neged midoh (measure for measure) to Korach/Kayin.
An Aside
As an aside, the Mashgiach once mentioned that Yisro (Moshe’s father-in-law) was a gilgul of Kayin. I asked him afterwards how could Korach and Yisro both be gilgulim of Kayin since they were contemporaries. He answered me that gilgul doesn’t necessarily mean the whole person is a gilgul. Rather, various aspects or traits can be a gilgul by one person and other aspects by another. 

I would answer in a different manner. While Chazal were content with inter-Biblical allusions and would call it maaseh avot siman levanim; or would draw midrashic comparisons and contrast between various stories or character traits, kabbalists have this new tool at their disposal, to claim that this instance of parallel is actually an instance of gilgul.

Maybe two people cannot simultaneously be someone's gilgul. And maybe it really was a machlokes. This certainly is not the first dispute in kabbalah. Of course, we cannot have a dispute in kabbalah, if it really is kabbalah. In other words, we would like to believe that these are mystical traditions and secrets, going all the way back to Moshe Rabbenu, that the holy Arizal is revealing to us, or that the holy Tziyuni is revealing to us. But in reality they are simply derashot created by human beings, applying kabbalistic hermeneutical methods, and operating in a kabbalistic framework and worldview.

If these are all derivations by human beings trying to discover the truth, then there is room for machlokes. But I am not sure that there is room for such an explanation in the mystical worldview, when it comes to contradiction in kabbalah.

{Update: See the comment section, where Arizal explicitly has different aspects of Korah in different contemporaries. So it certainly is possible, and would handily answer the question, just as Rav Kronglas did above. And this is the standard current understanding of gilgul, as different sparks of a root soul.}

The inventor of the Segulah Ring, Reb Yoel Baal Shem Tov

A different segulah ring

As mentioned in the advertisement from current producer of the segulah ring, this segulah stems from Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem Tov , {see comment section for the reason for the strikethrough} zatzal. (Admittedly, they also bring the sefer Kav Hayosher and the Chida in Avodas Hakodesh as support. See Yeranen Yaakov's extensive writeup of this, pro and con.)

But who is this? Most people hear 'Baal Shem Tov' and think that this is the famous Baal Shem Tov, Rabbi Yisrael Baal Shem Tov. But several other people took that title, and are in no way related to him. This is Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem Tov.

A Baal Shem was a practical kabbalistic magician. And even if you believe that some of them were the real deal, that does not mean that some of them were not charlatans. After all, look around today, and see how many people are putting themselves out as miracle workers or kabbalist magicians, and yet are charlatans. And people were less educated, and 'Westernized', back then, and fell for these fakers, just as people fall for kabbalistic con-men today.

So some people will look at the segulah ring and dismiss it as nonsense and a modern way of parting people with their money. But two other approaches are: (a) it is the real deal, with well-meaning people behind it, just as it was back then, or (b) it is a con, but it was a con back then as well!

This is from Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem of Zamosc, according to Kav Hayashar. There were actually two men named Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem, and I don't know which one is being referred to.

There is the earlier one, Baal Shem I, with the following biography in Jewish Encyclopedia:

HEILPRIN, JOEL BEN ISAAC:   (print this article)

By : Gotthard Deutsch   S. Mannheimer Polish Ḥasidic rabbi; lived at Ostrog in the middle of the seventeenth century. He was known as "Ba'al Shem I.," and, owing to his Talmudic and cabalistic learning, enjoyed a great reputation among his contemporaries, who called him "a man of God." In the cabalistic "Toledot Adam" (Zolkiev, 1720) it is recorded that in 1648 he miraculously saved some Jews who, pursued by enemies, had taken refuge in a ship. Some of his writings were printed in the cabalistic "Mif'alot Elohim" (Zolkiev, 1724). See Ba'al Shem.

And there is the second one, here:

HEILPRIN, JOEL BEN URI   (print this article)

By : Joseph Jacobs   Isaac Broydé Galician thaumaturge; lived at Satanow in the first half of the eighteenth century. Possessed of a fair knowledge of medicine and physics, he pretended to effect cures and perform miracles by means of the Cabala and the Holy Name. In 1720 he published anonymously a work entitled "Toledot Adam," describing various remedies attributed to prominent cabalists. The preface of the work constitutes a continuous panegyric of Heil-prin and his miracles. Heilprin had many pupils, who, on the death of their master, formed a band of charlatans who shamelessly exploited the credulity of their contemporaries.

Is this Toldot Adam the same work in both instance? It seems so... The second Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem is the son of the son of the first Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem, as the later one states in his haskama to Toledot Adam.

I am not sure which one our innovator of the segulah ring, and if we are dealing with the one explicitly labeled a charlatan. Zamosc is described as being in southeastern Poland, but the same place is described as a district in Galicia. I would therefore make the guess that we are dealing with the second one, who is also associated with these cures and miracles by means of kabbalah, and whose pupils formed a band of charlatans. The details fit much better. And Toldos Adam, by Baal Shem Tov II, has a bunch of such segulos for pregnancy and for for tumas keri, such as this one, and so perhaps we would find this segulah there as well.

However, in A heart afire: stories and teachings of the early Hasidic masters, by Zalman Schachter-Shalomi and Netanel Miles-Yepez, they clearly identify Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem of Zamocz as Baal Shem Tov I, that is, Rabbi Yoel ben Yitzchak.

{Update: On the other hand, in the The Besht: magician, mystic, and leader, by I. Etkes, they clearly identify Yoel ben Uri Baal Shem, that is, #2, as Yoel Baal Shem of Zamocz.}

The following from Jewish magic and superstition: a study in folk religion, by Joshua Trachtenberg and Moshe Idel. It details a case in which the innovator of this segulah ring, involved in an exorcism:

People from different backgrounds will likely react in different ways. An unscrupulous person 'possessed of a knowledge of medicine and physics' can fool the uneducated, particularly if they are already superstitious.

For example, they may not know the art, and sleight-of-hand, of ventriloquism, which was practiced by the Greeks in 6th century BCE, and may well be the Biblically prohibited yidoni. It was only when this Baal Shem came that he performed the appropriate rites and, though unseen, they began to speak. It seems quite possible that it was really Rabbi Yoel Baal Shem II who was speaking for them.

I also laugh at the sham of the court case. Do you really think for a minute that these demons had a chance of winning the case, and that the humans would be the ones thrown out? This was all pretext, and so the rabbis on the Beis Din in making their decision did not use Choshen Mishpat to decide the case. Did the demons really think they would get a fair shot?

No, this was a silly ceremony that the participants most likely seriously participated in, just as in modern times Rav Batzri has presided over two major public exorcisms of demons, both which turned out to be a hoax.

(As to the manifestation of these spirits, I was not there to be able to investigate and debunk. But to attempt this, assuming that it is not made up of whole cloth, I would note that the residents of the house were spooked by the death in the cellar, of a fellow who perhaps tripped, was killed by ruffians, or had died of an unknown ailment. Spooked by the thought that there were demons living in the cellar, they became more attuned to things which seemed 'off' in the main house. Hygiene was not good, and perhaps there were gusts of wind in the shoddy house, and so ashes fell into the pots in the hearth and items were cast against walls and furniture. The residents were superstitious to begin with, and this snowballed as they attributed random events to the presence of demons. Finally, they became so hysterical that they had to flee the house. They then sought the charlatan who put on a show and eased their spirits, and undoubtedly collected a tidy sum as his fee.)

Another story about Reb Yoel Baal Shem Tov of Zamosc, this time from A hear afire, linked and mentioned above:

Was FDR a Sufi?

Rav Nachman of Breslov,
as someone dreamed him

As Yeranen Yaakov posts, Netanyahu posited that FDR ('nothing to fear but fear itself') was a chasid of Rav Nachman of Breslov:

Netanyahu continued, "What did he say? כל העולם כולו [All the world is]... Continue!  ... גשר צר מאד והעיקר לא לפחד כלל [...a very narrow bridge, and the main thing is not to be afraid at all].  Do you see?  Roosevelt was a Hasid of the rabbi!"

Very cute. Though it is more like FDR being a chassid of Francis Bacon, who said the line first:

Nil terribile nisi ipse timor.Nothing is terrible except fear itself.

Maybe Francis Bacon was a closet Breslover chassid. Though Rabbi Nachman was born in 1772 and Bacon was born in 1561.  But perhaps President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was actually a closet follower of Sufism (a brand of Islam). I am not so sure that Rabbi Nachman of Breslov innovated this idea. We know he consulted Sufis:

Now, that bit about the world being a very narrow bridge? Sufi doctrine, it would seem:

Belief in the Last Day includes faith in the resurrection of the dead, their reckoning, the weighing of their good deeds against their bad ones, their passing over the high, narrow bridge that spans the hellfire (sirat), and that some will be put in hell out of justice, and some in paradise out of Allah’s pure generosity. Disobedient believers (as opposed to unbelievers) will be taken out of the hellfire after being requited for their sins. 

The bit about not fearing at all? Well opponents of Sufism categorize it as follows:

Sufis habitually reject the doctrine of "the fear of God, the wrath of the Day of Judgment, the fury of the Hell-Fire and the promise of Jannah." Faith based on coercion, they say, is slavery, and God has created man with mind, free will and love. Therefore, the mainspring of Sufism is love not fear and obedience to the religious laws.

And here is an essay at a Sufi website promoting fear in nothing but God:

So what would be the outcome of choosing to fear God instead of the host of others with various demands and expectations on us which usually serves them not us? And what does fear of God require us to do and be? It requires us to do the right thing by ourselves and by others to please God. Doing the right thing is explained in the Shariah (religious law), which in the West is often misunderstood and misrepresented, but in reality it is the first step on the path of fighting against our ego (nafs) in order to become who we really are and what we were created for according to our quiddity ‘fitrat’. Whereas pleasing others and fear of the world and life situations makes us walk in the opposite direction, and if not totally the opposite, at least in a wrong direction, since it is serving the personality and the ego of both self and others. 

Of course, I would say that FDR was neither a Breslover Chassid nor a Sufi.

:)

The world ends tomorrow, the day before Lag BaOmer

Well, according to these folks, at least. For more information, see this post on Mystical Paths.

This leads to a serious question about counting the Omer with a bracha. If we know the world will end before we complete the count, is that a lack of temimus? If so, how can we count with a bracha?! Even if we say that this means that mashiach will come, such that we can continue counting, this count is a count up to Shavuos. And according to the Midrash on Mishlei, in the future, when mashiach arrives, all festivals will be abolished save Purim. If we won't celebrate Shavuos, will we still count up to it?

OK, enough leitzanus. Apparently, the latest keitz is out, and it is the day before Lag BaOmer. From Reb Akiva and Rabbi Nati's post:

As we stated in Part 1 of this FREAKING OUT article series, a (small) number of tzadikim in Jerusalem have given a warning that it’s best for Jews to be in Israel by the 17th of Iyar this year.

[ When is the 17th of Iyar?  May 21, 2011, which is a Shabbat and the day before Lag b’Omer. ]

We were asked “What's the source that says to get out of chutz la'aretz by 17 Iyar? I'd like to show it to my rav who is close to …the mekubalim in Geulah”.  We responded and got this response from this questioner, “I spoke to my Rav. My Rav confirmed what you said know as per the same mekubalim.”

We’ll also note that well known blogger rabbi Lazer Brody has been hinting at the same thing in these two articles, note the last sentences.

Though read the end of the post for some important caveats. Can we get a name to associate with this latest ketz prediction? Yes, we have the following 'startling request' from Rabbi Yaakovson from Kiryat Sefer, relayed by someone who spoke with him:

To my DEAR Family and Friends, 

I don't want to be writing this,It feels terrifying to me. 

It is with a very heavy heart and a huge knot of anxiety in my stomache that I pass on this message. 

A Rabbi in Israel,who I have called frequently over the past 3-4 years to ask questions and ask for tehillim/psalms to say for various situations, gave me this message to pass on.  

He did something he has never done in all the time I have consulted with him-he stopped me after my first enquiry and volunteered information before inviting me to continue with my questions.  

He said: 
LIsten carefully, after Pesach there will be terrible things happen in Europe, huge destruction
It will begin in WESTERN EUROPE then move to Eastern Europe. The Jews must sell all they can and get to Israel as quickly as possible and buy property otherwise will lose everything
THere wont be much time to get out! 

Shortly thereafter it will happen in AMERICA around Lag B'Omer time approx a month from Begin Pesach. 

The Jews in America must sell all,get to israel ASAP and buy property 

ISRAEL will be the SAFEST PLACE 

He said all this will affect South Africa, but we will have more time in SOUTH AFRICA-mUST BE OUT BEFORE ROSH HASHANA
(which actually is not that much time either) 

I told him that people wont believe me! He said that is what happened before the Holocaust and when people see the destruction in Europe-they will believe -that will be the 1st sign! 

I dont think this is farfetched in light of recent current worldwide events.these are clearly messianic times!ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE 

I URGE you not to ignore this warning-at least make a list of priorities/a CLEAR PLAN in the event of having to ESCAPE URGENTLY! 

Ensure passports in order and put in safe accessible place with ketubahs and other necessary documents and valuables. 

I personally would advise Siddur, Tehillim,TEFILLIN+mezuzot for protection 

Before sending this email, I opened my inbox to find the emails that follow-I went cold. I had deliberated and avoided writing this email in the hope it would all go away-(what if it's a false alarm) 

-this just confirms that WE SHOULD ALL BE AS PREPARED AS WE POSSIBLY CAN IN CASE OF THE WORST! 

With LIGHT,BLESSINGS and HASHEM"S COMPLETE and CONSTANT PROTECTION

I agree with this person's suggestion to have passports at the ready, renewed. It never hurts to be prepared for the worst.

Yet, I would not put much stock in this prediction, even if this is unprecedented from this particular rabbi. There have been too many such failed ketz-predictions in the recent past, all with the agenda of convincing Jews to move to Israel NOW because the end is near. For one such example, see Rav Amnon Yitzchak's prediction. He had a similar statement to the one above, that Jews from abroad must immediately move to Israel and buy property, or else. See the Tzaddik Nistar, who hoodwinked Nava of Dreaming of Moshiach.

Immediate, frantic aliyah is likely NOT a good idea for a good many Jewish people. Consult your local religious guide, whom you trust and who knows your specific situation, to see whether you could / should carefully craft a plan for making a successful aliya.

Regarding the picture above, of the non-Jews with the same date, they explain:

d. What’s with that picture?  There is an Xian end-of-world movement that has selected the same date, May 21 of this year, on the basis of a number of Xian calculations, and they’re going around letting everyone in on the good news!

An explanation of their calculation:

Noah's great flood occurred in the year 4990 B.C., 'exactly' 7000 years ago.

At the time, God said to Noah he had seven days before the flood would begin...the church reasoned that seven 'days' equals 7000 human years from the time of the flood,making 2011 the year of the apocalypse.

In its second 'proof' the exact date is revealed by working forward from the exact date of the of the crucifixion - April 1, 33 AD.... there are exactly 722,500 days from April 1, 33 A.D. until May 21, 2011 - the alleged day of judgement.

This number can be represented as follows: 5 x 10 x 17 x 5 x 10 x 17 = 722,500...  numbers in the bible have special meanings, with the number 5 signifying atonement or redemption, the number 10 signifying 'completeness' and the number 17 equalling [sic] heaven.

In other words, something utterly irrelevant to us Jews. The date of the crucifixion is of no concern to us; plus their calculation of the date of Noach's flood is not the same as our calculation. A bunch of fools yelling that the end is nigh.

Except, it is somewhat useful, in that it is easier to see in others what we cannot see in ourselves. The anonymous "mekubalim in Geulah" have not been as forthcoming as to the basis of this latest ketz prediction.

{Update: Or rather, they have. Here is the basis:
According to the Gra, the Vilna Gaon, one of the ways he taught (or rather wrote down, it wasn’t really to be shared) to calculate the ketz on it being “before it’s time in it’s time” gives an “early” date of the 17th of Iyar, 5771 and a “late” date of Rosh Chodesh Av, 5771.
}

And perhaps like these anonymous mekubalim, this is not the first ketz prediction this fellow has made:

Despite his conviction, Camping has predicted the world would end before - on September 4 1994.

That, he says, was a mistake, a misreading of the biblical codes used to decipher the exact date of the 'rapture'. 

In order to get the warning out in time he fudged his calculations, a mistake he maintains he did not make this time.

Of course, church members claim that he did not make a mistake. Unfortunately, that website no longer easily shows all of the comments, but there was a member of the group who contested that Camping had fudged his calculations due to haste. Rather, some important event had occurred on September 4, 1994, which was an important step towards the eventual return.

This sounds remarkably similar to the claim put forth in Jewish circles, after each and every failed ketz prediction, that it was nevertheless an important step in the progression toward the redemption. For example, in this post at Israel Rising about the Churva synagogue being rebuilt, yet mashiach not arriving, or indeed, in the same Mystical Paths post:

c. BUT.  These hints and pronouncements DO usually prelude big events.  Steps towards the geulah.  Warnings Jews should pay attention to.  We live in a time of chaotic world events, both man made and natural.  The wise prepare.

Maybe so. Or maybe there is a whole lot happening in the world every day, or every other day, and thus it is easy to latch on to some event on that day. That would have been what happened had the prediction been the same day Osama Bin Laden was killed; or the day of the Japanese tsunami, or the day Mubarak stepped down. That these meshugenas latch on to it reveals that it is a useful rationalization tactic for people who want to stay firm in their delusional beliefs.

Related: This gallery of 21 Doomsday Prophecies that Fizzled.

My very own Torah code

So, I just ran some Torah code software. Torah codes are, of course, nonsense, because as Rav Yosef says in Kiddushin 30a, א"ל: אינהו בקיאי בחסירות ויתרות, אנן לא בקיאינן, that we are not expert in plene and deficient spellings of words, something which would entirely mess up any Torah code.  Regardless,I thought I'd give it a run. I'd expect to find, randomly, something that could pertain to me.

I'm just starting to get up and running with the software, so I don't know yet how to get other words in the same drawn matrix. But here is a neat one:

With an ELS (skip length of four letters), here is where we find ווקסמן, 'Waxman':

I think an ELS of 4 is pretty compact, and thus pretty significant. And what is the context in the plain text of the Torah? It is Devarim 18:10 and on:

י  לֹא-יִמָּצֵא בְךָ, מַעֲבִיר בְּנוֹ-וּבִתּוֹ בָּאֵשׁ, קֹסֵם קְסָמִים, מְעוֹנֵן וּמְנַחֵשׁ וּמְכַשֵּׁף.	10 There shall not be found among you any one that maketh his son or his daughter to pass through the fire, one that useth divination, a soothsayer, or an enchanter, or a sorcerer,
יא  וְחֹבֵר, חָבֶר; וְשֹׁאֵל אוֹב וְיִדְּעֹנִי, וְדֹרֵשׁ אֶל-הַמֵּתִים.	11 or a charmer, or one that consulteth a ghost or a familiar spirit, or a necromancer.
יב  כִּי-תוֹעֲבַת יְהוָה, כָּל-עֹשֵׂה אֵלֶּה; וּבִגְלַל, הַתּוֹעֵבֹת הָאֵלֶּה, יְהוָה אֱלֹהֶיךָ, מוֹרִישׁ אוֹתָם מִפָּנֶיךָ.	12 For whosoever doeth these things is an abomination unto the LORD; and because of these abominations the LORD thy God is driving them out from before thee.
יג  תָּמִים תִּהְיֶה, עִם יְהוָה אֱלֹהֶיךָ.	13 Thou shalt be whole-hearted with the LORD thy God.
יד  כִּי הַגּוֹיִם הָאֵלֶּה, אֲשֶׁר אַתָּה יוֹרֵשׁ אוֹתָם--אֶל-מְעֹנְנִים וְאֶל-קֹסְמִים, יִשְׁמָעוּ; וְאַתָּה--לֹא כֵן, נָתַן לְךָ יְהוָה אֱלֹהֶיךָ.	14 For these nations, that thou art to dispossess, hearken unto soothsayers, and unto diviners; but as for thee, the LORD thy God hath not suffered thee so to do.

With my opposition to fake psychics, such as Nir Ben Artzi, and championing the cause of Tamim Yihyeh Im Hashem Elokecha, that you should be whole-hearted with Hashem, your God, and not like the non-Jews, who hearken unto soothsayers and diviners like Nir Ben Arzi, I think this is a rather apt Torah code.

That said, I don't put too much stock into Rabbi Glazerson's Torah codes matching Nir Ben Artzi with the word חוזה, Chozeh, as Shirat Devorah points out.




Even IF Torah codes were real, they are open to interpretation, potentialities, and so on. Chozeh means seer, but just what sort of seer / prophet? I can point easily to Yechezkel 13:

ט  וְהָיְתָה יָדִי, אֶל-הַנְּבִיאִים הַחֹזִים שָׁוְא וְהַקֹּסְמִים כָּזָב, בְּסוֹד עַמִּי לֹא-יִהְיוּ וּבִכְתָב בֵּית-יִשְׂרָאֵל לֹא יִכָּתֵבוּ, וְאֶל-אַדְמַת יִשְׂרָאֵל לֹא יָבֹאוּ; וִידַעְתֶּם, כִּי אֲנִי אֲדֹנָי יְהוִה.

9 And My hand shall be against the prophets that see vanity, and that divine lies; they shall not be in the council of My people, neither shall they be written in the register of the house of Israel, neither shall they enter into the land of Israel; and ye shall know that I am the Lord GOD.

Someone can be a chozeh or a navi, but one who is sheker! Nir Ben Artzi certainly puts himself forth as a psychic, who can 'see' things, and this is true whether or not he is authentic, delusional, or a con-man.

Indeed, even Rabbi Glazerson engages in such interpretation of his Torah code, for though the word Mashiach is present, he interprets it that it is the time of Mashiach, not that Nir Ben Artzi himself is the mashiach.

Look, Rabbi Shmuel Eliyahu and Rabbi Yosef Yashar both support Nir Ben Artzi. This may be good enough for some. (Though if they don't follow these rabbanim in general, I would wonder if it is picking and choosing.) Even though I disagree with both of them, and plan on a post explaining just what might be misleading them, I prefer this much more than Torah codes. Feel free to disagree with my on this, of course.

An interesting peshat in the importance of Nissan

I saw the following idea in the Aruch HaShulchan the other day, and it is somewhat topical, given that yesterday was Rosh Chodesh Nissan:

סימן תכט סעיף א

ניסן הוא ראש החודשים. ומפני גדולתו לכן אף על פי שהשנה מונין מתשרי, מכל מקום החודשים מונין מניסן שנאמר: "החדש הזה לכם ראש חדשים, ראשון הוא לכם לחדשי השנה". כלומר: שמפני שהוא הראש לכל החודשים – לכן ישאר ראשון למנין החודשים.

ומה הוא גדולתו של חודש ניסן? מפני שבו היתה יציאת מצרים. שבזה נגלה השגחת ה' יתברך על ברואיו, ואותותיו ונפלאותיו; ושמשלם רע לרשע כרשעתו, ומשלם טוב לאוהביו. כמו שהכה לפרעה ולמצרים, וגאל את ישראל.

סימן תכט סעיף ב

ולמה נבחר החודש הזה? מפני שהמצרים עבדו לטלה, שהוא ראש המזלות באפודת העגולה, ומזל טלה משמש בחודש ניסן. ופרעה סמך על כוחו ומזלו. ולכן אף כי במכת ברד נשבר לבו הזונה, עד שאמר "ה' הצדיק, ואני ועמי הרשעים" – מכל מקום אחר כך במכת ארבה הרים ראש, כדכתיב: "ויגרש אותם". ובמכת חושך יצא בחוצפה גדולה, עד שאמר למשה רבינו: "אל תוסף ראות פני". והטעם: מפני שאז קרבו ימי ניסן, ובטח על מזלו שבחודש הזה.

וזהו שאמר הקדוש ברוך הוא למשה: "החדש הזה לכם ראש חדשים", כלומר: החודש הזה שפרעה ממתין עליו – יהיה לכם ראש חודשים, שבזה תתברר כי אין ממש במזלות. וה' הוא האלקים, בשמים ממעל ועל הארץ מתחת, אין עוד; וישראל הם עם סגולתו. ולכן ראשון הוא לכם לחודשי השנה.

429:1: Nissan is the head of the months, and because of its greatness, therefore, even though we start enumerating the year from Tishrei, we still enumerate the months from Nissan, as is states {in Shemot 12:2}, "This month is to you as a head of months, it is first to you of the months of the year." That is to say: because it is the head to all the months, therefore it remains first to the count of the months.

And what is the greatness of the month of Nissan? Because within it was the exodus from Egypt, for in this was revealed Hashem's Providence upon his creations, and His signs and wonders; and that He repays evil to the evildoers in accordance with his wickedness, and repays good to those who love Him. Just as he smote Pharaoh and Egypt, and redeemed Israel.

429:2: And why was this particular month chosen? Because the Egyptians worshiped the ram, which was the head of the signs of the zodiac, and the the constellation of the ram, Aries, serves during the month of Nissan. And Pharaoh relied upon his might and his mazal, astrological sign. And therefore, even though during the plague of hail his straying heart was broken, such that he said "Hashem is the righteous one, while I and my nation are the wicked ones", even so, afterwards during the plague of locusts he raised up his head, as is written {Shemot 10:11} "and he drove them out" {referring to Moshe and Aharon}. And during the plague of darkness he went forth with great chutzpa, such that he said to Moshe Rabbenu, "do not further see my face". And the reason is that at that time, the days of Nissan were approaching, and he relied upon his mazal, astrological constellation, which was in this month.

Thus, this shows Divine Providence, outside any sort of automatic astrological workings. As far as I understand it, the ancients regarded astrology to be derech hateva. And we say ain mazal le'Yisrael, because we have Hashem's direct providence. Of course, according to Rambam, astrology is absolute bunk:

Know, my masters, that every one of those things concerning judicial astrology that (its adherents) maintain—namely, that something will happen one way and not another, and that the constellation under which one is born will draw him on so that he will be of such and such a kind and so that something will happen to him one way and not another—all those assertions are far from being scientific; they are stupidity. There are lucid, faultless proofs refuting all the roots of those assertions. 

Of course, there are kabbalistic references to the Zodiac. For example, in Sefer Raziel HaMalach.

It draws heavily on Sepher Yetzirah and Sepher Ha-Razim. There are multiple manuscript versions, containing up to seven tractates. The printed version of Sefer Raziel is divided into five books, some of it in the form of a mystical Midrash on Creation. It features an elaborate angelology, magical uses of the zodiac, gematria, names of God, protective spells, and a method of writing magical healing amulets.

and Sefer Yetzirah:

The twelve "simple" letters created the twelve signs of the zodiac, whose relation to the earth is always simple or stable; and to them belong the twelve months in time, and the twelve "leaders" in man. The latter are those organs which perform functions in the body independent of the outside world, being the hands, feet, kidneys, gall, intestines, stomach, liver, pancreas, and spleen; and they are, accordingly, subject to the twelve signs of the Zodiac.

and the Zohar:

Yessod includes the whole Zodiac, 12 constellations and 7 planets from the Holy side, Which is Binah. It is also called “Bat Sheva”, meaning daughter of seven that are the lower 7 Sefirot.

The letter Vav וו, has the value of 12, representing Vav of the central column, Tiferet and Vav of Yessod. They reveal the 12 constellations.

The Vav represents the 6 planets, Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Sun, Venus , Mercury and the Heh ה represents the seventh, Moon.

שבתאי, צדק, מאדים, חמה, נוגה, כוכב, לבנה

The letters of the planets are בגדכפרת and each of those is the seed and the control of a different planet. The 12 letters of the months are דוזחטילנסעצק and each controls a different constellation.

The 3 letters above the Zodiac and the mothers of all that below are אמש. We have 19 letters that activate and control the Zodiac, 7 בגדכפרת and 12 דוזחטילנסעצק. In the Hebrew calendar we have 7 leap years in the cycle of 19 years. Every 19 years the light and vessel join in complete sync and it is significant in each person’s life.

Each of the 12 tribes, 10 sons of Jacob and 2 of Joseph has their soul root from a different constellation.

The four sides of the Holy Throne also relate to the four elements

Earth = Bull (Taurus, Virgo, Capricorn),

Fire = Lion (Aries, Leo, Sagittarius),

Air = Man(Gemini, Libra, Aquarius)

Water = Eagle (Cancer, Scorpio, Pisces)

I side much more with the Rambam, that it is all stupidity and nonsense. Though I differ with the Rambam in his assertion that it was not 'science'. It was faulty, incorrect 'science', and was incorporated into Jewish mysticism as it developed, because they thought that these were true things about the world.

Was the tsunami in Japan predicted by delusional tractor driver Nir ben Artzi?

No, it was NOT.

Some people are saying that he predicted it. Thus, from Yeranen Yaakov:

Kikar has an article with videos how the controversial figure R' [sic] Nir Ben Artzi predicted the tsunami.  According to this, Rav Dahan now has company as a tsunami-predicter.

You can see this prediction at Tomer Devorah's new blog - Geula Messages - from Parshat Ki Tisa (emphasis mine):

Every earthquake that passed over us was only preparation and introduction to open the big one - for the severe quake and great shaking in the world. The floods will be in places where man doesn't believe that there will be floods. Volcanic eruptions will be very severe. People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate. Snows, rains, severe winds; the tsunami in readiness for many places; everything in stages and in it's proper time. All this HKB"H is doing for the sake of the Jews. The hatred for Jews all over the world strengthens from day to day. They won't be allowed to earn a living with honor. They will be injured in their stores, in restaurants, in coffee shops so that the Jews will come to Eretz Yisrael. The worldwide economy will go and die out in very place and Eretz Yisrael will flourish and develop without end. All of this is happening because of the redemption and revelation of Melech HaMashiach in our days.

The Mashiach is here among us. He is the final designated one from the beginning of the world and is here, existing and operating. There is no other time period that he will come, this is the period and this is the time to reveal Melech HaMashiach. HKB"H is shaking the whole world; shaking every one; shaking every Jew and Jewess in Am Yisrael and in the whole world so that everyone will declare: "His Name is One and He is One and there is nothing except for Him. He is the King of all kings, HaKadosh Baruch Hu."

So too Shirat Devorah, though she is more circumspect with her caveat:

, and it certainly seems as if Rabbi ben Artzi did predict/"see" an earthquake/tsunami, although he did not state where it was occurring (see here)

The reasons that Nir ben Artzi's words do not constitute a prediction share much in common with the requirement for the ot, the sign, used to establish a navi as a navi emet or, if the sign fails, to establish him as a navi sheker. This does NOT MEAN that I am labeling him in this particular post as a navi sheker or navi emet. I want to save that discussion for a separate post. What it DOES mean is that halacha recognizes the strong possibility of spurious predictions coming true by random chance, and thus imposed requirements on the sign establishing a navi; and that we should be cognizant of the same strong possibility even if is is (purportedly) not nevuah in question.

The requirements to establish a true prophet as true may be found in the Rambam's Mishneh Torah, sefer HaMada, Hilchot Yesodei HaTorah, perek 10:

א  כָּל נָבִיא שֶׁיַּעֲמֹד לָנוּ וְיֹאמַר שֶׁה' שְׁלָחוֹ, אֵינוּ צָרִיךְ לַעֲשׂוֹת אוֹת כְּאֶחָד מֵאוֹתוֹת מֹשֶׁה רַבֵּנוּ אוֹ כְּאוֹתוֹת אֵלִיָּהוּ וֶאֱלִישָׁע, שֶׁיֵּשׁ בָּהֶן שִׁנּוּי מִנְהָגוֹ שֶׁלָּעוֹלָם; אֵלָא הָאוֹת שֶׁלּוֹ שֶׁיֹּאמַר דְּבָרִים הָעֲתִידִין לִהְיוֹת בָּעוֹלָם, וְיֵאָמְנוּ דְּבָרָיו, שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "וְכִי תֹאמַר, בִּלְבָבֶךָ:  אֵיכָה נֵדַע אֶת-הַדָּבָר . . ." (דברים יח,כא). 

ב  לְפִיכָּךְ כְּשֶׁיָּבוֹא אָדָם הָרָאוּי לַנְּבוּאָה בְּמַלְאֲכוּת ה', וְלֹא יָבוֹא לְהוֹסִיף וְלֹא לִגְרֹעַ, אֵלָא לַעֲבֹד אֶת ה' בְּמִצְווֹת הַתּוֹרָה--אֵין אוֹמְרִין לוֹ קְרַע לָנוּ אֶת הַיָּם אוֹ הַחֲיֵה מֵת וְכַיּוֹצֶא בְּאֵלּוּ, וְאַחַר כָּךְ נַאֲמִין בָּךְ.  אֵלָא אוֹמְרִין לוֹ, אִם נָבִיא אַתָּה, אֱמֹר לָנוּ דְּבָרִים הָעֲתִידִין לִהְיוֹת; וְהוּא אוֹמֵר, וְאָנוּ מְחַכִּים לוֹ לִרְאוֹת הֲיָבוֹאוּ דְּבָרָיו:  אִם לֹא יָבוֹאוּ, וְאַפִלּוּ נָפַל דָּבָר אֶחָד קָטָן--בַּיָּדוּעַ שְׁהוּא נְבִיא שֶׁקֶר. 

ג  וְאִם בָּאוּ דְּבָרָיו כֻּלָּם, יִהְיֶה בְּעֵינֵינוּ נֶאֱמָן.  [ב] וּבוֹדְקִין אוֹתוֹ פְּעָמִים הַרְבֵּה.  אִם נִמְצְאוּ דְּבָרָיו כֻּלָּם נֶאֱמָנִין, הֲרֵי זֶה נְבִיא אֱמֶת, כְּמוֹ שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר בִּשְׁמוּאֵל, "וַיֵּדַע, כָּל-יִשְׂרָאֵל, מִדָּן, וְעַד-בְּאֵר שָׁבַע:  כִּי נֶאֱמָן שְׁמוּאֵל, לְנָבִיא לַה'" (שמואל א ג,כ). 

ד  [ג] וַהֲלוֹא הַמְּעוֹנְנִים וְהַקּוֹסְמִים אוֹמְרִין מַה עֲתִיד לִהְיוֹת, וּמַה הֶפְרֵשׁ בֵּין הַנָּבִיא וּבֵינָם--אֵלָא שֶׁהַמְּעוֹנְנִים וְהַקּוֹסְמִים וְכַיּוֹצֶא בָּהֶן, מִקְצַת דִּבְרֵיהֶן מִתְקַיְּמִין וּמִקְצָתָן אֵין מִתְקַיְּמִין:  כְּעִנְיַן שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "יַעַמְדוּ-נָא וְיוֹשִׁיעֻךְ הֹבְרֵי שָׁמַיִם, הַחֹזִים בַּכּוֹכָבִים, מוֹדִעִים לֶחֳדָשִׁים, מֵאֲשֶׁר יָבֹאוּ עָלָיִךְ" (ישעיהו מז,יג)--"מֵאֲשֶׁר", וְלֹא כָּל אֲשֶׁר.  וְאִפְשָׁר שֶׁלֹּא יִתְקַיַּם מִדִּבְרֵיהֶם כְּלוּם, אֵלָא יִטְעוּ בַּכֹּל, כְּעִנְיַן שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "מֵפֵר אֹתוֹת בַּדִּים, וְקֹסְמִים יְהוֹלֵל" (ישעיהו מד,כה). 

ה  אֲבָל הַנָּבִיא--כָּל דְּבָרָיו קַיָּמִין, שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "כִּי לֹא יִפֹּל מִדְּבַר ה' אַרְצָה" (מלכים ב י,י).  וְכֵן הוּא אוֹמֵר "הַנָּבִיא אֲשֶׁר-אִתּוֹ חֲלוֹם, יְסַפֵּר חֲלוֹם, וַאֲשֶׁר דְּבָרִי אִתּוֹ, יְדַבֵּר דְּבָרִי אֱמֶת:  מַה-לַתֶּבֶן אֶת-הַבָּר, נְאֻם-ה'" (ירמיהו כג,כח)--כְּלוֹמַר שֶׁדִּבְרֵי הַקּוֹסְמִים וְהַחֲלוֹמוֹת כְּתֶבֶן שֶׁנִּתְעָרַב בּוֹ מְעַט בָּר, וּדְבַר ה' כַּבָּר שְׁאֵין בּוֹ תֶּבֶן כְּלָל.

That is, he needs to make a prediction, giving specific information about the future:

אֵלָא אוֹמְרִין לוֹ, אִם נָבִיא אַתָּה, אֱמֹר לָנוּ דְּבָרִים הָעֲתִידִין לִהְיוֹת; וְהוּא אוֹמֵר, וְאָנוּ מְחַכִּים לוֹ לִרְאוֹת הֲיָבוֹאוּ דְּבָרָיו:  אִם לֹא יָבוֹאוּ, וְאַפִלּוּ נָפַל דָּבָר אֶחָד קָטָן--בַּיָּדוּעַ שְׁהוּא נְבִיא שֶׁקֶר

We wait to see if they come true. If they do not, even if one aspect does not come true, it is known that he is a navi sheker. Meanwhile, meonenim and kosemim make predictions, some of which come true, but the difference is that:

אֵלָא שֶׁהַמְּעוֹנְנִים וְהַקּוֹסְמִים וְכַיּוֹצֶא בָּהֶן, מִקְצַת דִּבְרֵיהֶן מִתְקַיְּמִין וּמִקְצָתָן אֵין מִתְקַיְּמִין

some of their words come true and some do not.

I would spell this out in a different way. Make enough vague predictions, and by random chance, some will come true. A navi emes to establish himself should provide a prediction with a specific time or time-frame, make specific predictions, and there should be no kvetch. And even then, it might have been a fluke, so the people can test him repeatedly, and he must be consistently specific and accurate.

Maybe, if Nir ben Artzi, is not trying to be a prophet, he should not be judged by these standards; and perhaps one could say that since he is making negative predictions, Hashem can change His mind as people do teshuvah. This may well be the case, but if so, this is not a way of proving that his predictions that do come true are real predictions. At the most, one cannot establish him one way or the other.

But I would like to evaluate delusional tractor driver Nir ben Artzi's predictions in terms of specificity,  accuracy, and precision.

1) Did Nir ben Artzi say that on date X, in place Y, there would be a tsunami? This is what he said, bolding from Yeranen Yaakov:

Every earthquake that passed over us was only preparation and introduction to open the big one - for the severe quake and great shaking in the world. The floods will be in places where man doesn't believe that there will be floods. Volcanic eruptions will be very severe. People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate. Snows, rains, severe winds; the tsunami in readiness for many places; everything in stages and in it's proper time.

"Floods in places man does not believe there will be floods". This is not necessarily associated with the quake / tsunami. Do people really believe there would be no floods in Japan? Here is a news item from 2010, just one year ago:

Japan too has been hit by devastating floods in the northern Kyushu and Chugoku regions.

So, all he said was "places man does not believe there will be floods". Not "Japan". How many countries are there in the world? How many countries, had they been hit with floods, could you have applied this incredibly vague statement to? Be really honest with yourselves, those who are applying this to Japan, whether you would have applied the same to 100 other countries.

And when was this to occur? He did not state. And so, it could be the next day, it could be the next year, it could be the next decade.

So too,

People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate.

Be honest, and ask how many things could have happened that this would apply to.
This thus fails the test of specificity.

2) Did every detail come true, or is this parallel to Rambam's description of meonenim and kosmim? Let us see these predictions again, but I will reverse Yeranen Yaakov's bolding:

Every earthquake that passed over us was only preparation and introduction to open the big one - for the severe quake and great shaking in the world. The floods will be in places where man doesn't believe that there will be floods. Volcanic eruptions will be very severe. People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate. Snows, rains, severe winds; the tsunami in readiness for many places; everything in stages and in it's proper time. All this HKB"H is doing for the sake of the Jews. The hatred for Jews all over the world strengthens from day to day. They won't be allowed to earn a living with honor. They will be injured in their stores, in restaurants, in coffee shops so that the Jews will come to Eretz Yisrael. The worldwide economy will go and die out in very place and Eretz Yisrael will flourish and develop without end. All of this is happening because of the redemption and revelation of Melech HaMashiach in our days.

How many of the bolded items which I bolded came true? Did the tsunami hit many places, or just Japan? Are Jews now suddenly oppressed in the way he describes? Are there severe volcanic eruptions -- which was what was really associated with seeing intolerable things in the media.

And this is only in the one prediction for that week, Ki Tisa. This lunatic predicts dire things every week. For example, that they will attack synagogues such that our Sifrei Torah are in danger. How many of those predictions came true?

Yes, if you make 1000 vague predictions, eventually one or two will come true, or true enough that your followers will believe that they came true. But we are talking about an accuracy rate of about 0.02%. If there was a contest of marksmanship, and I took a submachine gun and sprayed bullets all over the room, such that out of 20,000 bullets, one accidentally hit the target, but all the others missed, would you say I was an expert marksman? The same is true for Nir ben Artzi.

As such, I am not impressed with Nir's predictive powers. I would indeed have been surprised if none of his predictions came true, because he predicts so much, and so much is going on in the world.

See my similar remarks, by the way, about the Tsunami Kabbalist, Rabbi Shimon Dahan.