Paul Byrd and the Survival of the Fittest

Does Bobby Kielty know something we don't? Last August, he signs a deal with the Sox and ends up a hero in the World Series. This year, after obtaining his release from the Paw Sox in July, he resurfaces a month later by signing a deal with the AL Central-leading Twins.

Word just came out that the Indians dumped Paul Byrd on the Sox for cash or a player to be named. Byrd's 37 and having a subpar year, but as ESPN points out, he's won his last four appearances - with an average Game Score of 62.5 (which is excellent) no less - and he's got a solid 4.06 ERA in Fenway over 31 innings. In other words, I like where this idea: cheap acquisition who might do some good in the back of the rotation.

Next question: Does the Byrd acquisition mean Buchholz is finished in the majors for the season, or that the Sox think Wakefield has more shoulder damage than they've let on? I don't think so; I think this trade is part of a larger strategy. With Wakefield's injury and Clay's spate of ineffectiveness, Boston has two open rotation slots in the middle of a playoff run. Wakefield is out for two starts, but Buchholz has the opportunity to redeem himself, Byrd has the opportunity to establish himself, Colon has the chance to return to form, and one of the many minor league callups (be it Zink, Pauley, Bowden, or Hansack) has the chance to step up and make a mark in a fluid situation. It's more of a survival of the fittest type of pitching arrangement that gives Boston some options in a time of weakness, the opportunity for retreads to put up solid numbers for a future a contract hunt, and for the Sox to show off younger talents to up their trade value rather than a definitive changing of the pitching guard.

The True Psychology of the Wild Buchholz

If this report is true and Manny really wants to go to the Yankees, he knows what will happen any time he comes to Fenway. If he's happy with shooting his Boston legacy in the foot, more power to him.

I was just wondering recently what happened to Devern Hansack; now it looks like he might be taking Wakefield's rotation spot for his next two appearances. An ERA over four in the minors ain't no great shakes, but the WHIP and K/BB ratios both look pretty good. We can certainly use the rotation help right now...

Speaking of which: let's talk (some more) about Clay Buchholz. We know he's unlucky; that statistic hasn't changed since last week. What's caught my eye this week was the Globe's article/interview with the troubled pitcher, which focuses on Buchholz's bad habit of relying on his offspeed pitches to get him out of trouble. Hitters around the league know this habit; they watch and wait for the offspeed stuff like music fans counting the days until Scott Weiland's latest tumble off the wagon, and they let it go flying by. Very quickly, Clay gets into bad counts, everyone starts thinking fastball and next thing we know, he's blowing through three run leads. Clearly the situation requires a new strategy, but unlike Robin I don't think Clay's goose is cooked just yet: no one denies that his stuff works really, really well when it's in the right sequence...and we all know he knows how to sequence properly. The trick is to adjust the sequence, to get, as Buchholz put it himself, "ahead in the count a bit more often where they don't have a choice to swing at off-speed stuff." It'd be great if he could do so this year, but like Lester in 2007, I think the adjustments will take a few months to really take effect.

A Perfectly Sucky Storm

Not to raise the specter of panic, but Matsuzaka needs to win tonight. As this article in the Herald points out - and as I'm sure you've noticed - the Sox have alternated a win with a loss since May 18, mainly through a series of back-and-forth blowouts that speak to a slump amongst most of the starting pitching corps. I'd blame Robin - he's blogged all three losses, so he must be responsible - but unfortunately, that's just too convenient. Instead, what I think we really have is a perfect storm of bad luck:

First weather system: Josh Beckett and his trick finger. Beckett's injury sets up Gabbo's sweet outing on Sunday (or maybe Beckett's injury and the rain worked together), but they also put the *ahem* unproven Devern Hansack on the mound the night before. No Beckett injury and that Braves series becomes a sweep.

Second weather system: Curt Schilling. Deadspin stated yesterday that Curt hasn't looked the same since using his blog to apologize to Bonds, but I think the fault might be mine for calling him rock solid after the Clemens signing. Come to think of it, I called Beckett rock solid in the same post...new theory: this entire pitching slump is my fault. Regardless, Curt has not had a solid outing all month, in a hindsight-driven slippery slope that led to dreadful loss against the Yankees on Wednesday. Will Number 38 get so pissed at himself that he pulls out of his tailspin? We'll see on Monday, but I'm guessing the Indians are in for some trouble.

Third weather system: Tim Wakefield versus the Yankees. Three years ago, Timmy Knuckles owned the Yankees. These days, not so much. Wake's last two starts haven't been his prettiest, especially when held up to the shining light of his Toronto shutout on May 11, but they were against teams (Detroit and New York) who've made him look bad in the past. Next stop is Texas (also a tough outing, especially in Arlington), so we may be in for more disappointment. Of course, it's a knuckleball, so who knows what could happen.

Combine all of these elements and we get the losses of the past week from a formerly hot team, so while Beckett will be back next week, Schilling prepares for vengeance and JT Killer looks to keep doing his crazy game-owning thang, it wouldn't hurt to have another Dice-K win to get the ball rolling.

Beckett on the DL

Unfortunately this doesn’t mean Beckett is on the “Down Low.” The cut on his middle finger will cause Josh to miss his next two starts. Tonight we are gonna get “Whirling” Derven Hansack, his 4 digit ERA and his inability to throw over the plate.

Damn you Beckett and your woman hands.

[Edit] Or the weather could interfere and push Hansack's start back to tomorrow night. How's about another day/night double header, everyone? Looks like we're shooting for a reverse of yesterday's perilous arrangement: Dice-K, the guy expected to throw more innings, is going first, while Hansack will take the night game and (hopefully) have more bullpen support available.

Game 31: The Gospel of Beckett

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 9, Toronto Blue Jays 2

1:1- Lo there blew a great wind that carried with it not 1 or 2 or 3 but 7 wins in His first 7 starts. This the almighty Beckett did sunder the Jays with His awesomeness. Yea he doth rock hard for innings 1 through 7 and if it were not for the first pitch from His amazing arm (and this evil pitch did leave the park) on this night He would have been as spotless as His record. Blessed be the Sox.

1:2- He who is Beckett is loved. Loved not only by the nation (which has mighty love) but also from the Sox hitters He calls teammates. For they love Him so greatly that they give Him runs as bountiful as all the salsa jars in Saint Papi’s trashcan. It was first Youk to bring the homer, and Youk beget Pedroia (small yet divine) and Pedroia beget Lowell, and Lowell beget Tek (back to holy back) and thus the runs did score. Blessed be the Sox.

1:3- And woe be the relief pitchers. For their toil has been all but forgotten. The new soul called from the depth of AAA Hansack did suckith the high hard one and walked many a batter. Praise to Romero for he was undaunted even with the bases filled of unholy birds. He vanquished his single foe and left the final three outs to be collected by Kyle of Snyder. He who is Beckett was indeed granted victory. Blessed be the Sox.

1:4- That which was from the beginning, was a win well in hand and the 7th of its kind for the Beckett. His glory only mirrors our own as Sox Nation. The Red Sox still hold upon high the lead for the AL East and shall attempt to gain strength for that lead with the help of our foreign disciple…Dice K. Blessed be the Sox.

Game 27: A Win Only a Mother Could Love

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 8, Seattle Mariners 7

In the XBox 360 version of MLB 2K7, Daisuke Matsuzaka is called Dennis Miles - presumably because of some sort of licensing issue. Like his real-life counterpart, Dennis Miles has an obscene number of pitches (I think the game includes six) that he can throw for strikes, mystifying batters and leading to complete pitcher domination. However, knowing how to select those pitches and place them in effective spots requires someone behind the controller with enough baseball knowledge to know how to a.) set up the hitter by changing speeds, b.) place the pitch so the hitter can't get the good part of the bat on the ball and c.) figure out which pitch from the arsenal the hitter isn't expecting. Get one thing wrong and you can recover; get all three things wrong and, for all his fancy pitches, Dennis Miles becomes just as hittable as a ball sitting on a tee.

The reason I bring this up is because last night, that wasn't Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching. That was Dennis Miles on the mound, with a fourteen-year-old kid with an understanding of pitching mechanics shallower than Paris Hilton operating the controls. Three walks to start the game, a five run first inning, five innings total with a bad spot at the end of the night made for Dice-K's worst outing in a string of three mixed-bag starts, where one inning tells the tale: command slips, hitters aren't fooled and that massive arsenal doesn't seem to mean anything.

There's a two-part silver lining, however:

1. All of these problems are in Dice-K's head. As every other inning he's pitched demonstrates, when he gets past the freak out, Matsuzaka can dominate hitters in the US as much as he did in Japan; he's got a 1.89 ERA (6 runs in 32 innings) when he's not having a meltdown. Even better, the solution to the problem is one-dimensional: find the key to those slips and he becomes balls-out nasty all the time.
2. If you're feeling some deja vu, you're probably thinking of the 2006 edition of Josh Beckett, struggling to adapt to a new league. Hopefully we won't have to wait until 2008 for Dice-K to undergo his own transition into the comfort zone, but there's definitely precedent that Matsuzaka will eventually come around.
   

So, to get back to the game, a quick sum up: Daisuke Matsuzaka = Dennis Miles, the bullpen was four pitchers short (Timlin on the DL, Hansack, Okajima and Papelbon all unavailable) and operating on a tape and glue budget that made Robin's fears two nights ago look like idle fancies and the Sox still came back from a five run deficit to win. There were plenty of contributions, of course: Lowell going 3 for 4; Wily Mo going 4 for 4 with three singles and a double, looking as comfortable as can be at the plate; even Pedroia knocked in a run. But the real hero was Manny with his two home runs, his fingers to the sky excellence, his sheer exuberance at cracking the hit that won the game in the eighth, as if he had found a way to focus the thousands of beams of happiness shooting out from the crowd into a single point of happiness brighter than the sun. Welcome back, Manny. It's good to have you here.