Forcing Rivera To Blow A Save Not Enough

Damn you, bullpen. Damn you, Theo.

Another impressive fight to win squandered by Papelbon and Oki last night in the Bronx killed whatever microscopic hope for making a wild card berth this year. Kalish and Hall steal a total of 4 bases on the best closer ever in the 9th and Mikey Lowell hits a sac fly to take the lead! That was awesome. But it was short lived.

Papelbon gives it right back. Oki walks in the winning run. UGH-mutha-freakin-UGH.

We had given up on the season a month ago, only to realize this weekend we were not mathematically eliminated yet. Hell, win out all the games and we had a shot, especially since the Sox had taken 2 of 3 in the Bronx and made Yankee pitchers look like minor league scrubs (and we had 3 more games at Fenway against them next weekend).

2010 was a very difficult year for this team, but they hung on just enough to tease us in this last week. I guess it's only fitting that I felt a twinge of what it's like again to have hope for this team. It's easy to blame the 19 DL injury moves for the demise of the team, but that is the most shallow of views. The starting pitching was only good from 2 of your 6 starters (if you count Wake in there which I do since he played enough). The bullpen was, well, we know it stunk up the joint. Management went cheap at the trade deadline and hopefully is banking on spending some cash and key trades in the offseason.

There are so many moving parts it's hard to know what this team will look like in 2011. But will it matter if 3 of the 5 starting pitchers gets knocked around weekly?

I sincerely hope Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre are given good contracts to play for the Red Sox in 2011 and beyond. They had impressive years and showed a lot of heart and character, and really seem like they fit in with the Youkilis and Pedroia grinder mentality. And don't forget Scutaro's fine year getting on base and knocking singles and doubles. I really like everyone surrounding the pitchers mound immensely.

I also think Kalish has earned an outfield spot. Drew was consistent, but not worth the coin he is being paid (at least he played a ton this year, so thanks for being stable).

I thank Lester and Buchholz for carrying the pitching burden this year, but am disgusted by Josh Beckett and John Lackey and their awful contracts. The bullpen is a total engima.

I hope Mike Cameron is gone. Happy retirement to Mike Lowell and Tim Wakefield (if that happens). I actually hope the Sox exercise their option on Ortiz. I think he deserves another year.

And lastly, I hope the Sox go and get a better trainer.

Go Twins! Rangers!

Expect Theo To Make a Relief Move

Recent history with Theo (as Gordon Edes of ESPN deftly points out) tells us he will do everything he can to get a quality reliever either at the deadline or during the August waiver period. Edes gives a very nice timeline back to 2003 of all the key relief pitching moves Epstein has made in his Sox tenure--many that were crucial pieces of playoff and World Series-winning teams--and moves that opened up roster spots for now-legends of Red Sox lore.

Edes reminded me of the Scott Williamson trade who had an amazing run in the playoffs in 2003 (and I'm still not sure why Grady Little didn't use him in place of Pedro in the ALCS game 7). He also reminded me of the Shea Hillenbrand trade to the D-backs that allowed David Ortiz to get more playing time. Don't forget about Myers in 2004 or Bradford in 2005 or Billy Wagner last year.

The problem is the team could have used one right before the West coast trip. The pen has a collective ERA of something like 4.44 (I read somewhere) and is the fourth worst in the league. You can't get to the playoffs with those kind of numbers.

With knowledge of how deeply invested the Sox are in starting pitching, the relief pitching has to be a real target. Can Theo stay that patient as close games are consistently being lost in the 8th and 9th innings? That debacle on Sunday with Oki and the pen was very troubling.

Some rumors are that Sox are courting Scott Downs of Toronto heavily (as are the Yankees). 

My fears about this road trip are almost completely true. Some good starting pitching has been there, but not for the bullpen. At least V-Mart and Hermida are back. Buccholz pitched very nice last night, getting out of jams and going pretty deep with only one early home run given up.

Ellsbury played in the Gulf league and is due back with the team next week. Hopefully guys forget all the BS with where he rehabbed and welcome him back.

Still, even with the win lat night, the Yanks and Rays also won (Garza, the bastard, threw a no-hitter), so they're still 8 games back. Not 9 games back, but too damn close.

Lackey takes the hill tonight in his former home stadium in Anaheim. Should be a bit surreal for him--especially after he drills one of his former teammates in retaliation of a Fernando Rodney fastball in Beltre's back after Ortiz hit a 2-run homer last night off him. The umpire was way too quick to warn benches last night and Tito could visibly be seen saying either to Rodney or the umpire (probably both) "F U C K You!"

That was awesome.

I am always leery of guys who go back to their old stadiums, so I don't expect much from Lackey tonight. He'll probably get a mix of cheers and boos, though since it's Anaheim, he's bound to have a strong Red Sox following. I've been to that place many times and the Sox fans come out of the woodwork in the OC for that series.

Time for tortillas as frisbees and loud chants of "Let's go Red Sox!" and, of course, death to the rally monkey.

The Towel, And Where to Throw It... If At All

If you've talked to me over IM or in person about the current state of the Red Sox right now I would probably tell you in all seriousness "I expect them to be about 9 games back by next week."

Where I once saw resiliency, I now see strikeouts;  Where I once saw a laser show, I now see a fading, fizzling ball of barely-flickering gas.

Losing three of four at home after the All-Star Break to the first place team in the AL West doesn't help. Lester losing on sloppy defense and a close call at home (with an anemic offense)? Ugh.

The injuries are serious and there are simply too many of them. The bullpen is undeniably awful. The always changing lineup is not working. Our outfield scrubs--Nava, Patterson, McDonald, Cameron-- are mediocre players. John Lackey is a waste of money. And even with the trade deadline coming, it's very hard to expect Theo and management to give up the farm that easily--and for whom?

Am I to be enamored of Beckett coming back later this week in Seattle? Who the hell knows if this guy can pitch anymore? He gave up several runs to AAA players on Saturday. Is that encouraging? A guy who catches has a bad broken thumb on his catching thumb and can barely clutch a bat... Doesn't really add up.

I am sure to be overreacting; I am sure to be fixating on those issues that keep me thinking this is virtually impossible to overcome in a few month's time. Sometimes you run in to a good pitcher (like C.J. Wilson yesterday... Did anyone see how bad he made Ortiz look at the plate yesterday? No wonder lefties are hitting under .100 against him.)

Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe thinks this is far from over. Abraham writes in his latest column:

The reality is the Red Sox are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot with 70 left to play... Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte is out 4-6 weeks with a groin tear and A.J. Burnett's 4.99 ERA has him punching walls. Derek Jeter's OPS is a few points better than Marco Scutaro's. The Yankees are a good team, but they're not as good as they were last year, so do not discount the division. Jeremy Hermida will be back Thursday. Josh Beckett returns on Friday. Victor Martinez played catch today and figures to get a little better every day. The spring-training lineups will start to disappear soon enough. You also have to be encouraged by a bullpen that now includes Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Manny Delcarmen and Michael Bowden in key roles instead of Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and that combustible crew.

Abraham makes some good points, but the question marks outweigh the certainties by a wide margin to me. The Yankees were willing to rent Cliff Lee for three months; They will make a starting pitching move at the deadline, especially with Pettitte on the DL.

This rag tag Red Sox team is headed West and has little resting time. This team has been only ok on the road, with slightly more wins than losses (22-20). Some say take comfort they are playing Oakland and Seattle.

I don't. I will be rooting them on all the way, but the reality is tough to swallow right now.

I hope I am wrong. I really do.

Hey, Look at That! Sox Are 2 Games Back (Oh, And Manny's Back)

We're midway through June in the year of our Lord 2010 and the Boston Redsox are 2 games behind the 2 best teams in baseball. By winning percentage as of today (.588), the team that plays in Fenway is the third best team in all of baseball. Woo hoo! Give us a bronze medal!

We got plenty of problems with the pitching staff and injuries, but I guess there is one interesting thing to say about how this team has been resiliently playing: Thank you, all-knowing, all-giving Jah, for interleague play! The Sox have been beating the crap out of teams like the Phillies and Diamondbacks with a strange combination of a banged up outfield, some grit and toughness from the bullpen, and a lineup that never gives up. Things are oddly clicking, and it's got to have Yankee and Rays fans sweating in their Underoos.

Seems like every other day someone is landing on the DL or getting a coritsone shot or having a hurt back and neck... So to be the third best team in all of baseball must feel really freaking good considering.

I'm mightily impressed by the bounce back and mental toughness of Lester, Buchholz, Scutaro, Beltre, Martinez and Ortiz. These 6 guys have been doing a tremendous job of being good when it matters. There have been many contributions, so not entirely fair to single them out, but for different reasons, these 6 gentleman stick out to me.

Lester is dominating. Buchholz is giving the team a chance to win just about every outing. Scutaro is getting on base consistently and scoring. Beltre is hitting the cover off the ball (and incidentally is the second hardest swinger I have ever seen next to Gary Sheffield). Martinez is a patient, methodical hitter who is not afraid to put pressure on the defense by getting on base and taking walks. And Ortiz is back to Big Papi status knocking balls to the deepest part of Fenway for home runs, but also going opposite field and hitting singles and doubles with regularity.

I shouldn't be gushing in mid-June, but I can't help it. A month ago we thought there was no chance in Hades this team was playoff bound, but with solid, consistent play, this team is showing it deserves a real shot.

Two things to note: First, Manny is back in Fenway, and while he will be booed in his at bats, I think he deserves to be applauded for the championships he was part of for Boston. Yeh, he's a flakey-bakey nutjob (and the way he left was downright retahded), but he's also one of the greatest and feared hitters ever to play the game.

Secondly, the Sox have called up triple-A prospect Felix Doubront for a start against the Dodgers tonight. This lefty has been pitching really well for Pawtucket , so I'm excited to see what he can do against the likes of Manny, Kemp, Ethier and the rest of a decent swinging, first-place NL team. Doubront moved from Portland to Pawtucket this year and in 12 starts for both teams is 6-1 with a combined ERA of 2.11.

[Image by Eric Kilby via Flickr cc 3.0]

Report Card for the Red Sox : D+ to C- With Upside

It hasn't exactly been a full month of Red Sox baseball, nor is my grade of the team exactly scientific, but screw it. If there is anything that drives a baseball fan to blog it's the love of examining the micro, tossing it with everyday observations and then making macro assertions.

The guys who get paid to do this are making lists about the Sox woes, so let's throw our tiny opinions in the till and see where we end up...

It's not a great revelation to say the Red Sox are a well-below average team right now with traces of stinking failure. The concerns are real.

ESPN's Gordon Edes has it right when he lists the Sox woes including: how the team is struggling mightily at DH, how the run differential numbers are quite scary, how throwing-out base runners is horrid, how enigmatic the pitching of Josh Beckett is and the struggles of a taxed bullpen. And those insanely high-performing Rays are smacking the ball around like they are playing slow-pitch softball. They are a ridiculous team. You want to see differentials? The Rays, as Edes pointed out, are outscoring the opposition 120-42.

Despite all these issues, the Red Sox are saved by one thing and one thing alone: The potential talent of proven players. The emphasis is on proven. It's very easy to wallow in the disappointment of expectations in April, but there is so much more that will happen [insert marathon vs. sprint cliche here].

That water coming out of your eyes is not only from the pollen, but from the panic. Get a tissue. Blow your negative nose and take a deep drag off your inhaler. Despite every issue we can pinpoint over a month for this team, patience may still show reward. So breathe.

Let's get a little perspective: An rib-injured Ellsbury hurts a whole lot. But next month, a Ben Zobrist could dive for a ball at The Trop and end up on the DL. A Matt Garza could get hit by a line drive up the middle. CC Fatsackia could rip something other than a bag of pork rinds.While I don't wish injury on anyone, they happen and they happen to every team.

Victor Martinez will heat up. Josh Beckett will turn it around. The bullpen will get more rest. The left side of the infield will improve its defense. Navajo Jewish Lawyer (Ellsbury) will return, and he will eventually swipe bases (though it could be slow going since it's a rib injury).

We will likely be surprised with offense from Beltre, Drew and Ortiz.

Clay Buchholz has been solid. Lester, by evidence of his last outing, could be making a run. There have been some key contributions from Hermida, McDonald and Scutaro. Youk and Lil Shit are money in the bank. Papelbon has saved games. Lackey is a fighter and should get that ERA down and go deeper in games.

We've already seen that this team can beat up on lesser-talented teams. The challenge will be to beat the really good ones. After getting smacked around by the Yanks and Rays, it will serve this team well to wear that smackdown on their shoulders and grind out games.

I truly believe this team will be competitive. Now how about a sweep in Baltimore this weekend?

Lester Back to Dominate Form in Shutout, Sox Sweep Jays

Jon Lester had his best outing of the year giving up only 2 hits and striking out 11 Blue Jay batters. He threw 119 pitches over 7 full innings.

The kid was awesome. All of his pitches were moving, biting and hitting spots in the zone.

Moved his cutter in and out, and used the change-up and curve for a ton of swing and miss strikes. Nothing rattled the lefty. When the Jays had runners on and were threatening, Lester was able to muscle his 95 mph fastball past swinging Jays batters.

Lester, who has had problems with walks this season, limited the base-on- balls to only 2 in this outing. A very good sign.

It went Lester for seven, Bard for one, then to Paps for the save (who has 7 saves in 7 opportunities). This is the kind of shutdown pitching we have come to expect from Lester and the power arms in the pen.

Lester dropped his ERA to 4.71.

The Jays lefty starter Brett Cecil stifled the Sox for 6 innings, but gave up a double to Darnell McDonald, who was later knocked in by Lil Shit on a sac fly for the first run of the game. McDonald has been consistently getting on base and contributing.

One thing to note about last night's game was the benching of Ortiz against another lefty starter. V-Mart was the DH and Varitek caught Lester. Is this the trend we should expect to see? Righty bats against lefty starters? Lowell made a number of DH appearances against lefty's and as a pinch hitter.

Ortiz and his lack of production is finding its way to the bench more often than not, as is Varitek behind the dish. It's been hard to ignore Tek's contribution to the offense, but I'm not confident it will sustain the season. I hope he proves me wrong.

With the sweep of Toronto, the Sox move ahead in the standings to third place behind that team from the Bronx and the Rays. Sox are back to .500 at 11-11 behind first place by 5.5 games. In the last 10 games, the Red Sox are 7-3 with a solid road record.

On to Camden in B-More where it will be so very nice to keep the winning-vibe flowing.

The key outing to watch this weekend against the O's will be the return of Dice-K on Saturday. A healthy and effective Matsuzaka could be a welcome distraction from the struggles of Josh Beckett and parts of the bullpen.


[Image by clareperretta via Flickr CC 3.0]

A Little Hot Stove Housekeeping

The Sox did some housekeeping today: they declined Gonzalez's ($6 million) and Varitek ($5 million)'s options, picked up Martinez's $7.7 million option, and changed Wakefield's perpetual club option into a two-year, $4 million deal. The business with catchers isn't surprising, but I'm a little baffled by the Gonzo choice. Presumably Boston is hedging its bets, slipping in the possibility of picking up a draft pick if Gonzalez declines to prolong his tenure and ends up somewhere else, but are things really that sure at shortstop next year that they can afford to make this bet? It's not like the shortstop free agent market is aces this off season and Jed Lowrie...well, we all know he's nothing like a sure thing, either. I guess we'll see what the Sox have planned.

As for Wakefield: does the new deal mean that Wake has a retirement date in mind? The perpetual option was fun because, quite frankly, it allowed us (or me, anyway) to live out a fantasy where Wakefield entered some sort of relativistic universe where age meant nothing and he could keep pitching forever, but clearly the injuries of this past season dealt that particular hope a crushing blow. If Wake's feeling his age enough to sign a time-limited deal - or the Sox are worried enough about his health to send him down that road - the true end can't be that far behind.

Nervous About the Playoffs

I suspect many of you are asking yourselves right now: 'Has there ever been a 95-win team that seemed more of a long shot coming into the playoffs?' Maybe it's some combination of finishing second to a 103 game-winning Yankee team, the severely lackadaisical turn the team seemed to take after losing those first two games to the Royals, and how many of Boston's positions seemed to be filled by a combination of tape, glue, and odd luck, but going into this ALDS - whenever it starts - I'm more nervous about Boston's chances against Anaheim than I've been in the past - and that's not just because the Angels have so much to prove. I mean, if you'd told me in April that Boston's solid group of options in the field and on the mound would be rife with injuries and missing major pieces by mid-season, or that Francona would be juggling a combination of Lowell, Youkilis, Varitek, and Martinez across three positions by August to keep Lowell and Varitek in playing shape for October, I would have been quite surprised.

Actually, I suppose I wouldn't have been surprised about either Lowell or Varitek: they're a combined age of 10,000 years old and have one good hip between the two of them. But the rest was a surprise.

Adding to my feelings of uncertainty is a little fun with small sample sizes: for whatever reason, it's taken 95 or more wins to get to the playoffs this decade. Boston has six 95+ win teams since the 2000 season. Two of those teams won it all; three teams met the agony of defeat, including two edge-of-the-seat ALCS losses; and one team is still in the process of writing its own history. Here's where it gets a little odd: the teams that won it all had more than 95 wins. The teams that did not had 95 wins.

See how I've already psyched myself out? I'm drawing patterns from meaningless data. I may not feel better until the Sox have exacted another sweep from the Angels.

Ode to the Worst Week in Red Sox Baseball in a Long Time

So many Red Sox thoughts right now, I'm overwhelmed with strange feelings.

It started with Lester's 8 innings in Tampa last week when it looked like it was a lock for a win. And then the pen collapsed. I knew then that there was something strange and eerie going on--like it was 2008 all over again and the Rays have magical powers at the Trop.

Some thoughts go to the past... Was Manny a Zenmaster in disguise, relaxing the middle of the lineup with his que-sera-sera, stoner outlook?

I despise Manny now for what he did to get traded, but I understand his value in the middle of that lineup. For all his bad traits, the guy rarely pressed. He was the equivalent of having, gulp, Mark Teixiera (say what you want about him being on the Yankees--the guy is a freaking stud).

Manny relaxed Ortiz. This is not news, it's just a fact. As Eric said to me today, "Manny is a lingering presence. Like overripe fish."

Is the silver lining that our starting pitching is very good? Is Tito for real doing these Bigelow Green Tea ads online?

Whatever the case, I haven't seen the Red Sox offense press so much in a very long time.

Youkilis who had been hitting really well on the road, suddenly lost it again over the weekend. The Jason Bay hamstring pull couldn't have come at a worse time. I love getting V-Mart, but getting him in a slump of sorts is unfortunate.

Lester and Beckett are studs. Buchholz has some things to work out, namely, throwing that fastball for strikes (and maybe going back to the mysteriously missing curveball).

First place is pretty much a goner at this point in the season, unless the Yankees pull an about face or there is some major injury to Burnett or Carston Charles. The wild card is the spot to get, and with having to go on the road in Texas and Toronto, the Sox have a lot more work to do.

The point is that it's time to relax a little, and get back to basics. Shrug off the week, and get back to taking bad pitches, hitting strikes and being patient.

ps. The Red Sox schedule is so whacked this week.. Why the hell do they go home for 4 games, then are back on the road for 6 to Texas (again) and Toronto? And looking ahead, from August 18 to 30 the Red Sox do not have one day off.

A Closer Look at Kotchman, LaRoche and V-Mart

On the surface, the Kotchman for LaRoche deal is pretty puzzling.
But upon a little investigation, it appears that there are a few key factors at play.

One appears to be that defense is a larger piece of the puzzle. The second reason is that LaRoche and Chris Duncan (who the Sox got in the Lugo deal from St. Louis) in my estimation--were down-the-stretch, left-handed offensive insurance in case the Red Sox did not land Adrian Gonzalez or V-Mart. The third reason is contract related.

The defensive numbers are explained really well in the Around the Majors blog:

According to Total Fielding Runs, LaRoche cost his teams 2.6 runs more than an average fielder per 1,250 innings over his career. Kotchman saved his team 6 runs per 1,250 innings.

According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Kotchman has been 5.8 runs better than an average first baseman in 2009 (best in baseball). LaRoche is 3.4 runs worse than the average first baseman.

Ok, cool. For the rest of 2009, he's a bench player. He can pinch hit against righties, becomes a defensive replacement when Youk is at third and Lowell is removed or sits and on days when V-Mart catches. Sox have a ton of corner flexibility and, in my estimation, are better set up for next year without Mike Lowell.

We all know Youk is going to be the third baseman of the future, and with Lowell's hip problems, having an additional first-baseman and another lefty bat can't hurt the Red Sox. Victor Martinez did have some injuries in 2008, notably the arthroscopic surgery on his elbow, so you never know when one loose Joba fastball could send him back to the DL.

Kothcman, Duncan and down-the-road, Lars Anderson, can back up for any of these scenarios.

Contract
LaRoche is about to be a free agent at the end of this season, while Kotchman is arbitration-eligible through 2011. The nice part of that is that it gives the Red Sox brass more contract flexibility for a guy who is most likely a bench player for the remainder of this year.

He's not a free agent until 2012, so I would expect that Kotchman gives the Red Sox more trade package options in the off season with Lowell likely to be moved. Being able to throw in a 26 year old with some major league experience in a trade package is a nice to thing to have in your back pocket.

Until then, it's nice to have the defense in your pocket if something were to happen to Youk or Martinez.

More on Victor Martinez
Did I mention that this was the deal I wanted?

If his first-half offensive numbers are any indication, Martinez is a great get, especially when you factor in his ability to relieve Varitek behind the plate, and hit in the middle of the lineup from both sides of the plate.

He's an RBI guy--something the team needs right now with Bay struggling-- and the psychological distractions Big Papi now faces with the recently revealed roid debacle.

Contract-wise, the Red Sox can pick up V-Mart's option for 2010 for $7.5 million. Given his offensive history, that is relative bargain for a middle of the lineup hitter who can also catch. You have to imagine that Tek is not going to be able to catch as many games the remainder of the season, or next year, given his age, and the wear and tear.

While Adrian Gonzalez is younger with a great opposite field lefty bat, I am very content with Victor Martinez who has a strong history in the AL and has seen a whole lot more AL pitching and AL East teams than Gonzo (though don't count out the Sox going for Gonzo in the off season as the Padres are in major rebuilding mode after letting Peavy go).

And ultimately, the Red Sox have shown that they can make the deals they want to make without giving up too much. While Masterson was a good long reliver and showed signs of being a solid starter, the three B's (Bard, Bowden and Bucholz) are well-protected future stars of the game.

Welcome to V-Mart...

...now located in the confines of friendly Fenway Park. The addition of the 30-year-old catcher and first baseman provides some insurance that will let Lowell take more spells away from the field and provide a bat with a bit more pop than the light hitting Kottaras. It's a solid deal, but I'll be honest: I'm more excited because the Sox were able to get an upgrade over LaRoche (now heading to Atlanta for Casey Kotchman) without trading anyone more valuable than Justin Masterson. Buchholz, Bard, Bowden; they're all still around, with Buchholz now free to get his second shot at establishing himself as an integral part of the rotation.

Next question: what are the Sox going to do with Kotchman? If there's another swap in the offing, why trade for Kotchman first - aren't he and LaRoche basically interchangeable parts? I guess we'll find out shortly.