Expect Theo To Make a Relief Move

Recent history with Theo (as Gordon Edes of ESPN deftly points out) tells us he will do everything he can to get a quality reliever either at the deadline or during the August waiver period. Edes gives a very nice timeline back to 2003 of all the key relief pitching moves Epstein has made in his Sox tenure--many that were crucial pieces of playoff and World Series-winning teams--and moves that opened up roster spots for now-legends of Red Sox lore.

Edes reminded me of the Scott Williamson trade who had an amazing run in the playoffs in 2003 (and I'm still not sure why Grady Little didn't use him in place of Pedro in the ALCS game 7). He also reminded me of the Shea Hillenbrand trade to the D-backs that allowed David Ortiz to get more playing time. Don't forget about Myers in 2004 or Bradford in 2005 or Billy Wagner last year.

The problem is the team could have used one right before the West coast trip. The pen has a collective ERA of something like 4.44 (I read somewhere) and is the fourth worst in the league. You can't get to the playoffs with those kind of numbers.

With knowledge of how deeply invested the Sox are in starting pitching, the relief pitching has to be a real target. Can Theo stay that patient as close games are consistently being lost in the 8th and 9th innings? That debacle on Sunday with Oki and the pen was very troubling.

Some rumors are that Sox are courting Scott Downs of Toronto heavily (as are the Yankees). 

My fears about this road trip are almost completely true. Some good starting pitching has been there, but not for the bullpen. At least V-Mart and Hermida are back. Buccholz pitched very nice last night, getting out of jams and going pretty deep with only one early home run given up.

Ellsbury played in the Gulf league and is due back with the team next week. Hopefully guys forget all the BS with where he rehabbed and welcome him back.

Still, even with the win lat night, the Yanks and Rays also won (Garza, the bastard, threw a no-hitter), so they're still 8 games back. Not 9 games back, but too damn close.

Lackey takes the hill tonight in his former home stadium in Anaheim. Should be a bit surreal for him--especially after he drills one of his former teammates in retaliation of a Fernando Rodney fastball in Beltre's back after Ortiz hit a 2-run homer last night off him. The umpire was way too quick to warn benches last night and Tito could visibly be seen saying either to Rodney or the umpire (probably both) "F U C K You!"

That was awesome.

I am always leery of guys who go back to their old stadiums, so I don't expect much from Lackey tonight. He'll probably get a mix of cheers and boos, though since it's Anaheim, he's bound to have a strong Red Sox following. I've been to that place many times and the Sox fans come out of the woodwork in the OC for that series.

Time for tortillas as frisbees and loud chants of "Let's go Red Sox!" and, of course, death to the rally monkey.

You Got Your Offense In My Defense! Sox Bats Defy 'Bridge Year' BS

The Red Sox are leading THE MAJORS or are right behind the leader in plethora of offensive categories  right now. Yeh, you heard me right: The entire major league.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the numbahs:

• #1 in Hits with 689 (Number 2? The Kansas City Royals; I know, it's totally crazy)
• #1 in Doubles with 174
• #1 in RBI with 373
• #1 in Runs with 390
• #1 in Total Bases with 1158
• #2 in Average at .278 (Number 1? The Kansas City Royals at .279)
• #2 in Home runs with 93 (Number 1 is still the Blue Jays)
• #2 in On-Base Percentage at .353 (A tie with the Braves of Hotlanta; That team from the Bronx leads at .359)
• #3 in Walks with 277 (behind that team from the Bronx and the Braves of Hotlanta)

The team who plays on Yawkey Way are middle of the pack in one category: Strike Outs. They currently rank 17th which is fairly decent. At the bottom of that list are the Chicago White Sox and, once again, the Kansas City Royals.

If only the Royals had a few more decent starters... Speaking of Kansas City, they could be a team the Red Sox try to bargain with for a trade. Gordon Edes of ESPN started dropping some names recently and he mentioned Scot Podsednik as a target for Theo. He hits, he steals bases and he runs the bases well... I have some other ideas on potential targets, but more on that later.

Despite all this offense, the Red Sox have to be on the market for an impact outfielder with the injuries to Ellsbury, Cameron, Hermida and now, Drew. Drew is supposed to play tonight in Colorado, but I will not be surprised if Tito gives him more time off to let that hamstring calm down. Luckily, he did not land on the DL, but you'd be foolish to rule that out with Stephen's older, richer brother.

While the team-offensive numbers have been solid, the overall offensive contributions from outfielders are tenuous aside from Drew. Sure, there have been great rookie moments from McDonald and Nava, and some nice lefty at bats from Hermida (who is hurt), but let's be clear: We cannot expect these triple-a guys (and an inconsistent Bill Hall, who is really a back-up infielder) to go the rest of the season. In an effort to reach the playoffs, the Red Sox need another Ellsbury-type player who can get on base consistently, be a real base-stealing threat and generally be a nuisance to pitchers.

Looking at the outfield, Edes recently examined the offensive state of these players:

Relying on patchwork combinations that have featured McDonald, Jeremy Hermida and Bill Hall, with a cameo appearance by rookie Josh Reddick and now the latest import from Pawtucket, Nava, the Sox outfield collectively ranks next to last in the league in hitting (.257), 12th in OBP (.329), seventh in slugging (.421) and fifth in home runs (22).

And now I digress on Mike Cameron... I was doing a little research on contracts and still cannot believe Theo gave him over $7 million dollars. Yeh, he can play the outfield, but you had to know his age was a bit of a liability. Considering the abdominal injury and his lack of everyday status at present, perhaps now is the time to package him up with someone from the minor leagues and let him and his lousy batting average, lack of power and ZERO stolen bases go elsewhere.

[Image by therob006 via Flickr CC 3.0]

Report Card for the Red Sox : D+ to C- With Upside

It hasn't exactly been a full month of Red Sox baseball, nor is my grade of the team exactly scientific, but screw it. If there is anything that drives a baseball fan to blog it's the love of examining the micro, tossing it with everyday observations and then making macro assertions.

The guys who get paid to do this are making lists about the Sox woes, so let's throw our tiny opinions in the till and see where we end up...

It's not a great revelation to say the Red Sox are a well-below average team right now with traces of stinking failure. The concerns are real.

ESPN's Gordon Edes has it right when he lists the Sox woes including: how the team is struggling mightily at DH, how the run differential numbers are quite scary, how throwing-out base runners is horrid, how enigmatic the pitching of Josh Beckett is and the struggles of a taxed bullpen. And those insanely high-performing Rays are smacking the ball around like they are playing slow-pitch softball. They are a ridiculous team. You want to see differentials? The Rays, as Edes pointed out, are outscoring the opposition 120-42.

Despite all these issues, the Red Sox are saved by one thing and one thing alone: The potential talent of proven players. The emphasis is on proven. It's very easy to wallow in the disappointment of expectations in April, but there is so much more that will happen [insert marathon vs. sprint cliche here].

That water coming out of your eyes is not only from the pollen, but from the panic. Get a tissue. Blow your negative nose and take a deep drag off your inhaler. Despite every issue we can pinpoint over a month for this team, patience may still show reward. So breathe.

Let's get a little perspective: An rib-injured Ellsbury hurts a whole lot. But next month, a Ben Zobrist could dive for a ball at The Trop and end up on the DL. A Matt Garza could get hit by a line drive up the middle. CC Fatsackia could rip something other than a bag of pork rinds.While I don't wish injury on anyone, they happen and they happen to every team.

Victor Martinez will heat up. Josh Beckett will turn it around. The bullpen will get more rest. The left side of the infield will improve its defense. Navajo Jewish Lawyer (Ellsbury) will return, and he will eventually swipe bases (though it could be slow going since it's a rib injury).

We will likely be surprised with offense from Beltre, Drew and Ortiz.

Clay Buchholz has been solid. Lester, by evidence of his last outing, could be making a run. There have been some key contributions from Hermida, McDonald and Scutaro. Youk and Lil Shit are money in the bank. Papelbon has saved games. Lackey is a fighter and should get that ERA down and go deeper in games.

We've already seen that this team can beat up on lesser-talented teams. The challenge will be to beat the really good ones. After getting smacked around by the Yanks and Rays, it will serve this team well to wear that smackdown on their shoulders and grind out games.

I truly believe this team will be competitive. Now how about a sweep in Baltimore this weekend?

If The Blue Jays Win the A.L. East, I Will Eat a Cockroach

You will be wasting your time if you save a roach for me to eat, people.

The Jays--while a fine Canadian organization with good fans--are about as likely to win the AL East as the Mets are to win the NL East. It's called pitching, and the Jays and Mets don't have enough of it to go around.

After 8 games, however, the Roy Halladay-less Blue Jays have been tearing the cover off the ball with odd contributions from a power-hitting Alex Gonzalez (with 4 dingers in a week) and a hot Vernon Wells. They are 6-2. Enjoy the fall from the top, kids-in-the-skymall or whatever the hell that place is called.

Our beloved Red Sox are playing .500 ball and currently sitting above the Baltimore Orioles in 4th place. It means about as much as having a wrinkled grandpa Steven Tyler belch out "God Bless America" at Fenway on opening night. I don't want to disparage Aerosmith's contribution to 1970's hard rock, but at this point, he can't sing worth a damn. Go back to Lynn and endorse Kelly's Roast Beef or something. That dude looks more and more like an old lady with every passing season.

It's early to make any definitive arguments about the Red Sox, but some of the concerns I had are increasingly becoming evident. Mike Cameron has a long hill to climb before he gets my support. I want contact hitters, not chase and miss guys. His defense is nice, but Ellsbury should not have lost his job after the plays he made and his contribution at the top of the lineup.

Call it "defense" when you want to save some coin with the Cameron signing. I can live with the savings as long as V-Mart is locked up and everything in their power is done to get Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline.

Sox could have signed Jermaine Dye, kept Ellsbury in center and had another big bat in the lineup. Probably could have had Dye on a nice one year deal. Offense matters in close games too, but as long as that money is put to good use elsewhere I can scream at the tv and Mike Cameron for a year I guess.

Beltre and Hermida are looking like good fits (and I expect Hermida to get more playing time). Beltre could take a few more pitches too for walks, but hard to complain when he has been hitting. He's hitting .375 with 6 RBIs and no walks in 24 at bats.

Scutaro has been decent too at the plate, but his glove and arm are not impressing me yet. I hope that changes.

Ortiz looks lost again early, especially against fastballs, but he has had a few opposite field hits (both against Twins), so patience is key. I said it last year after guys like Bill Simmons said his career was over: He can still hit. He will hit. Get off his large Dominican back.

He's not the same guy since Manny took the chronic train to Chavez Ravine. He's not the same guy since the wrist injury. And about the roids (aka "vitamins and supplements"): he did them at one point, but he showed real resilience last year. He finished as one of the hottest hitters in the league by the end. Without him, Sox do not make the playoffs last year. Basta. Enough. The man will hit.

The most surprising thing to see so far is the Sox pitching. It's all over the place. Lackey has looked good, but Beckett and Lester have not been particularly solid. And the bullpen? Not sure what is happening there. Bard and Papelbon need to get their other pitches working because guys are sitting fastball all day long. It has hurt them a little already.

So now what? More Twins at Target Field tomorrow and then 4 against the Rays at Fenway which should be tough. Rays are a very talented team.

Also, the Yankees are still the best team in baseball. I don't like admitting that, but they have a lot of balance. I don't envy a pitcher who has to face that lineup from top to bottom.

Go Sox.

Who Would You Rather Have: Bay or Hermida?

Because it's starting to look like we're going to have both. Bay's request for more time and loot than Boston's 4 year, $60 million offer has met with no takers except the Mets (4 years, $65 million), and Bay either doesn't like his potential numbers in Citi Field or he'd rather not sign with a team that's made spectacular season blowups a regular habit, because his agent is trying to resurrect interest from the Sox front office. Meanwhile, Nick Cafardo has some thoughts on how Jeremy Hermida will never develop the big bat he's reputed to sport - Cafardo makes some Ortiz comparisons - if he's playing fourth or fifth outfield with Cameron/Bay/Ellsbury/Drew/whomever. With the team in the process of assembling a group that seems better suited to win today than tomorrow relying on Hermida's offensive development doesn't seem like a good strategy, but the more I think about it, the more I think what Cafardo is saying makes sense: if this guy really is a slugger in the making, let's see what he's got and take advantage while he's in Boston.