Bodies Everywhere

After Robin's post yesterday on the bullpen aftermath, I was curious as to how well the Red Scare really did this spring, so I pulled some numbers from the list of Spring Training stats MLB had hidden on its team sites like a rare and precious jewel and did some comparisons. My hypothesis going into the project was that the Red Scare is more a collection of available bodies meant to get between the starter and the end of the game/Jonathan Papelbon than something fierce, like Scot Shields or the bringers of death they have in Minnesota. And yes, I know most bullpens are just collections of inferior arms, but with the signings in the off-season and the number of young pitchers still in camp until this week, I'm seeing a bullpen that comes closer to emulating Zapp Branigan's military strategy than acting as a fearsome stopping force.

To make my list, I took everyone who pitched an inning at the major league level for the Sox this spring, took out anyone who had started a game (except Papelbon) as a starter or potential starter, added Tavarez as starter number five and removed Papelbon because he's not a middle reliever. A couple of interesting data points jumped out at me:

• The twelve relievers at the major league camp converted three out of eleven save chances this spring. Saves may be the most arbitrary statistic in baseball, but it does mean most of these guys couldn't bring the goods in a close-and-late situation. Thank God for Paps.
• I averaged the numbers from all twelve pitchers to get a sense of the average Red Sox bullpen pitcher this spring. This composite pitcher, in 8.3 innings, had a WHIP of 1.44 (yes, that's right: almost a base runner and half for every inning out on the mound). Of those 12 or so base runners, he allowed 4.3 to make it around the bases to score, including lucky guy with a round trip ticket.

Conclusion: even though we have the cream of this crop pitching at the major league level come Opening Day, the Red Scare's most impressive feature is its size: a whole of lot depth to step in if the first guys up can't get the job done. I think we may be looking at an Oakland A's-style job, where the team fields enough players to get through the first half of the season with some respectability, then drops the dead weight at the Trade Deadline and brings up fresh arms for a drive to the playoffs. I see a lot of close contests in our future...

Making the List

At this point in the spring (nearly a week away from opening day) pretty much every position player (barring injury or some Florida related trauma) has their position locked up. Thanks to Paps return to the closer role, the rotation is changed slightly, but it too is now cast in bronze. All that remained was the list of names that would pitch the majority of the 7th and 8th innings this year (hopefully nothing earlier). A list of the cast and crew of the bullpen. A list of the jobbers, the band-aids, the setup specialists, and the rejects.

So excuse me as channel Joe McCarthy and stand on my blogging soap-box and yell:

“I hold in my hand a list of names!”

Unfortunately this is an incomplete list. It’s just the guys who made it and some notable absentees. Just like in little league, if you have a (*) next to your name you made the team. Good luck guys.

*Mike Timlin: Starting the season on the DL is always bad. Reports are that if he was younger he could push it and be ready for opening day, but come on… wasn’t he too old last year?

Bryan Corey: A young arm that isn’t yet ready for the big show. He may be a September call up or a long shot to make it if one of the other guys goes down.

Manny Delcarmen: Juuuust missed the cut. MDC had a very mediocre spring and is going to AAA for his troubles. If someone doesn’t work out as planned, he’ll be back up quick. Otherwise, see you in September.

*Brendan Donnelly: Another vet. This guy looked like a great pick up, but he too looks long in the tooth. One of the first to drop out of the closer lottery.

Kason Gabbard: Gabbo had a really good spring training, but not good enough apparently. He is going to be a starter in Pawtucket and I wouldn’t be surprised if he made a few spot starts in the big leagues out of the 5th spot.

Craig Hansen: Bottom line… he pitched himself out of a roster spot. The once dubbed “Closer of the Future” has been AWFUL since the middle of last year. Another happy Boras client.

Jon Lester: The ace of the AAA crew? Once he gets checked out and looks 100% I think Lester is bound for the bigs. Probably the first called up if the injury bug bites.

*Javier Lopez: “Death to Lefties!” is his rallying cry. Is he a true LOOGY? I dunno, but at least he is another left handed arm for the pen. He should be better this year now that he’s the only Javy Lopez on the team.

*Hideki Okajima: This is the lefty reliever we got from Japan, not Dice-K’s translator. Yeah I was confused too. He will stick with the big club so Matsuzaka has someone to carry his equipment.

David Pauley: One of the injury replacements for the decimated pitching staff last year. Although he held his own, let’s just say I am not too saddened he didn’t make the club. Maybe in September.

*J.C. Romero: Wasn’t this the guy who we tried to get from the Twins last year, but then it turned out he was on steroids? Now he’s in the pen?!?! Oh wait, he’s another lefty. That’s like a reliever’s “Get out of jail free” card.

*Joel Pineiro: Won’t be starting, won’t be closing, and isn’t named Rudy Seanez. Yeah, I can deal with him as the set up guy.

*Kyle Snyder: Just call him the anti-Craig Hansen. He performed quite well this spring and earned himself a long relief role.

Pretty much cut and dry. Biggest shocks were Kyle Snyder making it and Hansen blowing it. This is a deeper pen than last year and even though it isn’t AWE inspiring, it isn’t vomit inspiring either. Still, to keep with political metaphor, I think "The Red Scare" could be a good nickname for this crew.

Closer By Committee Rears Its Ugly Head Again

Jeez, guys…I stop paying attention to baseball for a few days and you go and sign someone new? Not just anyone new, mind you - washed-up starter turned reliever Joel Pineiro? And now you’re thinking either he or Runelvys Hernandez could become the closer? The best thing you (the you represented by Allard Baird) can say about Hernandez is that he's not afraid of anyone? This is the guy with the steadily declining numbers and the well-documented friendship with the late, great Terrence Long we're talking about. Are things really that bad out there? My God, it's going to be 2003 all over again, with some poor sap playing the role of B. K. Kim, ending the year by flipping someone off and then claiming he had a "cultural misconception" even though he's from Missouri.

Ahem. Sorry about that; I'm calm now. Let's take a look at the pros and cons of this new situation:

Pros:

• He has a "few innings" as a closer from last year, when he spelled for regular Mariners closer JJ Putz. He has one conversion in two opportunities (not that that means much) and held opponents to a .213 batting average in 24.1 innings.
• He's lowered his arm angle a bit, which supposedly equals more success.
• He's enthusiastic to pitch in front of Red Sox Nation.
• "Everyday" Eddie Guardado gives Pineiro his seal of approval, which is even more scientifically valid than Pineiro's save conversion ratio.
• The Sox weren't dumb enough to commit to Pineiro as their only closing option for 2007.

Cons:

• He hurt his arm in 2004, effectively derailing his career for the past two years and now he's not good enough to start any more.
• He gave up 19 hits and 13 runs in those 24.1 innings as a reliever last year.
• He's attempting to convert from a starter to a closer, which has a very low success rate.
• He's the result of a gut feeling by scouts, not any sort of statistical analysis.
• There aren't any more free agent closers still on the market.
  

If this one-year gamble works out, it'll be great...if it works out. I have a feeling Robin and I will be bitching hardcore about the closing situation come April.