Red Sox in the Bronx: 2003 All Over Again

This team is bipolar.

When the starting pitching is going bad, the offense has the ability to fight back and scrap together runs and compete (case in point: last night's game). When the starting pitching is going well, the bullpen can implode rapidly. Last night was an insane back and forth of polarized emotional states. It was all of this wrapped up in the highs of mania and lows of crushing defeat.

It was 2003 all over again.

At 7 pm last night I discovered that the YES Network was--for once--not the only broadcast showing the game last night.  Oh cool, I thought. No annoying ass-licking Michael Kay and the douchebaggery of the rest of the YES Network. Woo hoo! Instead I could watch ESPN with color commentary from Nomar, some dude, and Aaron Boone.

Yeh, that Aaron Boone--that mutha-freakin' lucky, hanging knuckle-ball hitting, 2003 Game 7, ALCS-killing, SOB. Whatever. Boone has been erased by rings in years after. Boone Schmoone.

Talk about irony.

He and Nomar were entertaining, actually. We learned they have known each other a long time. They both grew up playing ball in Southern California, that they were on the same team in amateur Summer leagues on Cape Cod between their sophomore and junior years in college. Both Nomie and Boonie were self-deprecating, made fun of their ages, and took swipes at their own rail-thin body types.

After Jonathan Papelbon entered last night's game in the bottom of the ninth with a two-run lead in the Bronx, but before he threw a pitch, it was Boone talking up the effectiveness of Boston's closer. It was one of those filler moments where they come back from commercial with the pitcher still warming up, throwing his last pitches and getting his rhythm as they flash stats and talk about the man on the hill.

Boone and Nomar were talking about how Papelbon was 9 for 9 in save opportunities in 2010, and that it was Papelbon's use of his splitter and secondary pitches that was helping keep batters off kilter. They even brought up how Papelbon had watched his blown save against the Angels in the playoffs last year over and over and over as a reminder to mix it up a bit more.

Secondary pitches? Not last night.
 
Now, I'm not writing this to take insanely reactionary swipes at the closer,  nor would I suggest that management needs to make changes in the pen to the closer (the pen should be shaken up, a good lot). It's not as if Daniel Bard makes me feel any more comfortable. He was a bit shaky in the 8th himself.

But I will say this on Paps: You now have another video to watch over and over from 2010, and you need to mix up your pitches. You may be able to blow a heater by a guy a few times here and there, but not mixing it up is only going to screw you when you have to face strong hitting teams.

Every closer is going to blow saves. Even the great Rivera can walk in a run and give up grand slams (as happened Sunday in the Bronx). A blown save is accepted.

But last night was another huge emotional blow. Your offense gets you back in the game after Andrew Dice-K sucks it up in the first giving up 5 runs, and another in the second. It was 6-1 in the 3rd with the Yankees best pitcher on the hill--Phil Hughes.

Hats off to the Sox offense. Timely walks and hits and the big bomb were in play last night. Sox hit 5 homers with Victor Martinez hit two solos, Ortiz, Youkilis and  J.D. Drew hit a huge 3-run homer off of Hughes to tie the game. It was all for not.

Will that be the cliche of this season? The irony this season could be clawing your way back in to a playoff run only to give it up on your supposed strength in pitching.

Oh, and you want more irony? It was Wakefield's 2 innings in relief of Dice-K who was in line to get the win. Screw you, Aaron Boone. Screw you.

[Image by Mike A. (RAB) via Flickr cc 3.0]

Blaming the Umpire

It would have to be Wakefield, wouldn't it? On the day when Timmy Knuckles became one of four active pitchers to achieve 2,000 strikeouts and made an excellent return to the starting role with a quality start (3 runs in 7 innings), the offense was non-supportive: Ortiz got a hit. The Sox came close to scoring at least once, but blew opportunities.

I've been mentally assigning these losses to bad luck for a few years now, as I've been scarred by that stretch from 2007 to 2008 season, when Wakefield had fifteen starts where the Sox scored 0 to 2 runs, and 21 starts where they scored 3 to 5 runs. But that feeling isn't particularly fair: throughout his career, the offense scored three or more runs in two-thirds of Wake's starts. He's been far more likely to score a victory when they score six runs or more, which has happened in about forty percent of his starts. The real problem was Marcum, who's had a lot of success against the Sox (2.91 ERA in 55.2 innings) and even more in Fenway (2.08 ERA in 26 innings) and had no problems bringing more of the same yesterday. We'll call it a mix of bad luck and opponent skill.

But there was more, of course: Boston finally broke through for two runs against closer Kevin Gregg in the ninth and seemed likely to at least garner a tie thanks in great part to David Ortiz, who already two hits on the day and seems to be emerging from his winter slumber. With one out and J. D. Drew on second, Ortiz struck out looking on a pitch so far out of the zone it made home plate umpire Dale Scott's already elongated strike zone look, well...it was enough for Jerry Remy to call it ridiculous, and it was enough to get Terry Francona out of the dugout. The out wasn't the end of the game - Beltre singled in another run in the next at-bat - but it feels like enough of an unnecessary gut shot for me to call it the difference between a win and a loss. Just Wakefield's bad luck, right?

A Little Hot Stove Housekeeping

The Sox did some housekeeping today: they declined Gonzalez's ($6 million) and Varitek ($5 million)'s options, picked up Martinez's $7.7 million option, and changed Wakefield's perpetual club option into a two-year, $4 million deal. The business with catchers isn't surprising, but I'm a little baffled by the Gonzo choice. Presumably Boston is hedging its bets, slipping in the possibility of picking up a draft pick if Gonzalez declines to prolong his tenure and ends up somewhere else, but are things really that sure at shortstop next year that they can afford to make this bet? It's not like the shortstop free agent market is aces this off season and Jed Lowrie...well, we all know he's nothing like a sure thing, either. I guess we'll see what the Sox have planned.

As for Wakefield: does the new deal mean that Wake has a retirement date in mind? The perpetual option was fun because, quite frankly, it allowed us (or me, anyway) to live out a fantasy where Wakefield entered some sort of relativistic universe where age meant nothing and he could keep pitching forever, but clearly the injuries of this past season dealt that particular hope a crushing blow. If Wake's feeling his age enough to sign a time-limited deal - or the Sox are worried enough about his health to send him down that road - the true end can't be that far behind.

Pitching: It's a Problem, But it Could be Worse

Crap in a hat. A few years ago, I have run screaming for the hills - or the ridge in Prospect Park; I'm in Brooklyn, after all - at the idea of facing the Yankees in the Bronx down a key member of the line up. Now I'm just slightly nervous. Shocking the Yanks at home seems like a possibility - particularly after the embarrassments the Bombers have suffered at the hands of the Sox this year - and I'm sticking to my optimism unless something bad happens this evening. In the meantime, let's talk pitching.

There's a sense of panic in the press about the state of the back 3/5ths rotation, with quotes like "a 2-5 record and 7.74 ERA in its past three trips through the rotation" being bandied about like they're signs of the Apocalypse. If there's another Boston Massacre this weekend those fears could - could - be justified, but right now they're just short sighted, for a few reasons:

1. The problem isn't Penny (or even Buchholz, who's had one terrible start, one shortened start, and two quality starts) so much as it is Smoltz. Penny's started 21 games this season; he's given up five runs or more four times, and he's had two starts where he's pitched less than five innings. Remembering that he's both an experiment on the cheap and a fourth or fifth starter, I can't see any reason to complain about what he's brought to the table this year. Last night was just a poorly-timed deviation from the pattern. Smoltz, on the other hand, has only given up less than five runs on two out of his seven starts, and those were against the AAAA teams in KC and Baltimore. Unlike Penny, he's also had almost no run support, so his bad days look that much worse.
   
   
2. Experiments or no, imagine how bad things would be if the Sox hadn't signed Penny and Smoltz now that injuries have put us in our time of need: we'd been looking at 2006 all over again, with the corresponding overexposure of young talent unprepared for the big stage. I'd much rather have veterans like Penny and Smoltz out on the mound than watch the Sox bring up Bowden a year or two too early or try to convert Bard into a starter mid-year. These guys were hired to be insurance and they're providing it, much like Paul Byrd will be if his climb up from the minors proves successful.
   
   
3. Wakefield and Matsuzaka might not be on the world's fastest healing schedules, but it's likely they'll be back before the season is over. It sucks that they're both out at such a critical time in the season, but I think - and yes, I'm about to concede the title to the East - that the Sox have the ability to hang on long enough to take the Wild Card. Time to step things up, boys. Let's start with taking down Cletus the Hutt tonight.
   

Way To Make Up Some Ground, Guys

Not sure what's worse: that the Sox lost, or that the Yankees lost on the same night and the Sox missed a chance to gain some ground. I'm feeling a bit pessimistic at the moment, what with Wakefield and Matsuzaka on the DL and the consequent thrusting of the Smoltz experiment into the light, so I'm going to go with the blown chance as the greater of two evils.

On further thought, let me revise: the greatest of all evils was that Boston lost on a night when they had rallied to take a nice lead because the Red Scare had a uniformly terrible night and surrendered runs in dribs and drabs, ultimately coughing up the game in an extra inning loss (that most terrible of defeats) because the offense couldn't score a guy from third, all while the Yankees were losing to Tampa Bay, thereby squandering an opportunity to gain a game back in the standings.

I think that puts things about right.

Will Josh Beckett Win 300 Games?

Beckett at the helm is a nice way to end the first half: three hits, no runs, no walks, seven strike outs, and a league-leading tie of 10 wins with teammate and fellow All-Star Tim Wakefield (himself the subject of a nice profile in today's Globe). Beckett's 2009 ERA+ is 140, 22 points higher than his career average; his WHIP is 1.149, well below his career average of 1.216, and overall he looks far more impressive than the 2 and 2 starter with the 7.50 ERA that started the year.

But yesterday's domination of the lowly Royals was more impressive than the piling up of some sweet statistics that pulled Boston to three games above New York in the AL East standings: after eight years at the major league level, Josh Beckett has amassed his 100th win. Such milestones lead to speculation, for even as we recognize that the win is a flawed statistic for measuring the value of a pitcher, we wonder - especially these days, when conventional wisdom suggests that we'll never see such winners again - whether or not Beckett will win 200 more and achieve the milestone that has helped 20 pitchers find their way into the Hall. So, will he?

First, a few assumptions:

• I'm using Beckett's winning percentage in Boston (.656) because it seems likely that he'll continue to pitch for teams of Boston's caliber (providing the support necessary for amassing a large body of wins) for the productive portion of the rest of his career.
• To be consistent, I'm using his 27 starts per year average from his four years in Boston, which is roughly consistent with what an adjusted starts per year average would be over his career.
  
• Because Beckett is a power pitcher, I'm assuming "the productive portion of the rest of his career" means 10 years, when he's 39.
  

Now, the results:

• 27 stars a year for 10 years is 270 starts.
• With a .656 winning percentage, Beckett would need to make 305 more starts to win 200 games.
• 305 is more than 270.

Not looking good, but there's some room for adjustment. For example, if you adjust the number of productive years to 12, you have 324 starts, which would be enough for more than 200 wins. If you upped the average number of starts a year to 31, you'd also have enough starts for 200 wins. If you changed the winning percentage to reflect the upcoming years of Beckett's prime, you might find enough 20 game-winning seasons to make a difference. It's a tough climb to a vaunted milestone, but Beckett might have the luck and the success to go the distance.

Congratulations, Tim Wakefield

I've been thinking for most of the day about what to write about Tim Wakefield's All-Star selection, trying to avoid a sappy listing of plaudits while still expressing my admiration for the man and his pitching. Eventually, I realized his selection came down to two very simple ideas.

First, the selection has an aura of added respectability, like the selection is one of those lifetime achievement awards that the Academy hands out at Oscar time, adding yet more luster to the career of the athlete who's carried the Pro torch on a marathon pace in Boston. Red Sox fans love Wakefield because he represents all that we think modern athletes don't have: the virtues of loyalty, team spirit, and lack of ego. He's a folk hero in Boston sports and we love to see our folk heroes recognized by the institutions that helped create them.

Second and more importantly, there is a very "well, duh" feeling behind the choice. To be sure, Wakefield is not having the kind of career year he's been fortunate enough to have twice in his life - the kind that, were he able to reproduce with year-over-year consistency, would surely grant him a spot in the Hall - but as he's aged, he's become the anchor of the Boston pitching staff, the guy who fans can rely on to eat up innings, make thirty starts or so a year, and not land on the DL. His flashes of brilliance are the more precious for their unpredictability, making the guy look like a magician when the volatile mixture of elements that can make a knuckleball dance act in harmony. If Pedro in his prime was great to watch because he looked like a god come to Earth, Wakefield in his element is great to watch because he looks like an everyday working guy who happened to have caught a bolt of lightning for the day. Red Sox fans have known this idea for years. We're just glad the rest of the country will finally get a chance to see him in the same light.

Papi's First 2009 Home Run, and Other Red Sox Items

Take that Bobby Abreu, Carlos Guillen and Russell Martin.

David Ortiz finally crushed a fastball for a home run, and to the deepest part of Fenway--straight away center.

Despite the sigh of relief from worried fans (and the missed-opportunity runs that nahmally would have been scored by all those frustrating ground outs and pop-ups), Big Papi just needed it to happen. He told the locker-room media, including Irish-afro style Shaunessy after the game:

"I got that big old monkey off my back . . . It's been hard for me. I wasn't really worried about the home runs as much as getting my swing back. I was missing pitches that I normally hit. It's crazy how things happen. I had some good swings and nothing happened. I hit this one good."

Nobody knows why or how someone gets out of that bad funk, but it was either one of two things: His Papi or my fantasy team.

"My father flew in yesterday," said Ortiz [to Irish afro-style] . "It was loose at home today and we were playing with my son. My father told me, 'It's not going to get worse than this. Get out there and have fun. Do what you know how to do.' "

I benched Ortiz after sticking by him in my utility spot in the semi-insane, AL-only auction fantasy league I have him in. Murphy's Law seems to always work when you start over analyzing numbers and letting a legend stupidly duke it out with Jason Giambi for fantasy playing time.

It was good to be wrong on this one (you're back to the utility spot).

We all knew it would happen, but as I said in the first week, he looked really slow with the bat speed and didn't look like he could it much. As the weeks progressed, Ortiz stared to hit to the opposite field when they were home, which was the sign that in the past that a blast was imminent.

But it didn't happen. And then the Sox went on the road.

Side Note: Ortiz keeps his sense of humor. Read this from Manchester, NH's Union Leader:

"Look at that!” David Ortiz said out of nowhere, interrupting his own answer
about the swing that ended his season-long home-run drought to gesture toward
the other side of the locker room. “That’s crazy!”
A dozen heads turned at
once toward the direction he was pointing. What was it? Something on one of the
TV screens? A highlight of the home run he’d hit into the center-field
bleachers, perhaps?
“It’s (pitcher Josh) Beckett naked over there in the
corner,” Ortiz said, a playful smile spreading across his face.

The Road Trip
Speaking of the road, there were some serious tough losses in Anaheim and Seattle. The one that really drove me nuts was last Sunday with bases loaded and no outs and Jason Bay in the box.

I love this mild-mannered Canadian, and I'm willing to give him huge passes because in many clutch situations, he has come through. But someone, anyone, for Remy's sake (get well, Mr. President), please hit a sacrifice fly or opposite field single.

Perhaps the lesson is that, like Papi's troubles with the long ball, patience will be rewarded. The long view is that Toronto, after Halladay, is weak, and though they have some serious offensive pop (league-leading 225 RBIs, and 3rd in HRS), but I expect them and their rookie pitching to fade.

That Other Team, Kazmir, Sox Pitching
That other team in the Boogie Down, however, is starting to show their true colors with the long ball, big run-scorinng innings and starting pitching. As the Spring transitions more directly in to Summer, the Yankees are going to be a very tough team. Despite some setbacks with A-Roid, Burnett, Sabbathia and a slow bat from Teixiera, they are starting to earn all that cash they make.

Yanks are leading the league in HRs (64). Compared that to the Sox at 47 (Sox rank 7th in the league, just below the Rays). They are just ahead of the Sox in RBIs, (212 to 209) and in Runs (225 to 218).

Happy to see the Rays are not getting it done so the Sox can focus on one thing: Getting enough wins and standings separation to get either the division or the Wild Card. The Central and West are doing a very good job right now of beating up on each other.

Scott Kazmir looks like he should be playing for the Mets. His ERA is now 7.68.

I know the Sox starters outside of Wakefield have been rough too, but you can see Beckett and Penny starting to get it figured out over their last two starts.

Looking forward to tonight's start from Lester. It's bounce back time at home with a chance to sweep.

Help Me Tim Wakefield, You're My Only Hope

Tim Wakefield.

In twenty-three career games at Tropicana Field, he's put up such sterling numbers as a .750 winning percentage, an ERA of 2.86, a WHIP of 1.16, a K/9 of 6.6...and on and on. You can read all about it here if you'd like, but combined with his average 2.44 ERA and 7 and 2/3rds over his three last starts, the Sox have no better hope than Tim Wakefield when they take the field tonight. Down they may be, but not out, and just like two years ago, Wakefield is the only stopper we need.

Go Wakefield. Go Sox.

A Monument to a Win

The stuff of legends: in a Ruthian piece of self-confident prediction tinged with the sort of rewarding self-sacrifice that has etched a place for Wakefield in the annals of Red Sox lore, Timmy goes to Francona yesterday before the game and tells his manager not to take him out, no matter what. Afterwards, he goes out and pitches a complete game on 69 111 pitches, erasing a personal ten-year win gap in Oakland, saving the bullpen from further work on a game before an off day, and doing his part to get a win.

Others could probably draw contrasts between Wakefield's actions and the stereotype of the selfish athlete that supposedly infects our times, but I'm more jazzed about how a win like this one - at the end of a tough road trip, after a dizzying losing streak, as the spectre of a damaged season started to raise its head - is a pure and simple demonstration of the triumph of the group-supported individual in a team sport. The team did well, making spectacular defensive plays and blowing open the score with blows significant to both the game's score and the collective offensive slump of the past couple of weeks, but Wakefield took that support and did even better, performing his job to the levels of near-perfection. It was a good day.

And So It Begins...

...for both the Red Sox (first two Spring Training games tomorrow) and for Josh Bard, who will be taking a seat behind the plate when Tim Wakefield starts against the Twins in the evening. I know Bard is fighting for a position with the team, but good on him for taking not only the toughest catching assignment, but one that burned him so badly a mere three years ago. Good luck!

Catching Problems? Bring in Josh Bard, Of Course!

Imagine you're the Red Sox (fun, right?). You have, as Robin pointed out in strongly-worded commentary bordering on hysteria, no catchers on your 25 man roster: your captain is on the market awaiting a multi-year offer that may never come and your backup - who, I should note, is one of the few catchers out there with the ability to catch the knuckleball pitcher who you still have on staff - hit the bricks for the shelter of your rivals because you made the odd decision to non-tender after his best (if admittedly not superb) season yet. What do you do?

Try and sign Josh Bard, apparently. You know, the guy the Sox sent to San Diego two seasons ago to get back Mirabelli because they realized not everyone can catch Wakefield. Um, duh? To Theo's credit, he's since admited that trade was a mistake, and given how that season turned out - and the lingering questions about the team's construction - who can blame him, but I'm starting to wonder where the strategy is in all of this mess. First, the Sox fail to come to an agreement with Varitek, which wasn't much of a surprise: things are very different in the personal and professional lives of Jason Varitek, and he wasn't going to give the Sox the same satisfaction of an easy deal like he did four years ago. Then, the aforementioned non-tender for Cash, the resultant lack of catchers...and Boston's decision to try and sign Bard, who has bad ankles and a checkered past in Boston that automatically rules out his playing one every five with Wakefield, all while insisting that they're still going after Varitek. Anyone else confused?

I could see Boston's using a Bard signing as an opportunity for both catchers to compete for the starting position - trading away the loser at the earliest opportunity - but that would only make sense if Varitek had agreed to play in a Red Sox uniform next year. Even then, unless Bard has some sort of resurgence, it's not like either catcher is particularly attractive trade bait, and if Bard performs well, why would Boston want to get rid of him except to fill a hole they should have already plugged by the start of the season? I feel like the Sox are trying to buy insurance for a car they may or may not own in the next four months, but maybe I'm missing something?

All These (bad) Things That I’ve Done

ALCS Game 4: Boston Red Sox 4, Tampa Bay Rays 13

Breaking down the Red Sox players using lyrics from a semi-emo pop alt band? I guess it’s the best I can do with this mess.

When there’s no where else to run/ is there room for one more son
To Tim Wakefield the Game 4 starter. And the answer is no. He was supposed to be our stopper and he couldn’t go 3 innings. More runs, more homers, more of the same. He left the Sox with their backs up against the wall. That might have even been his last appearance in the Red Sox uniform. That thought alone has put a damper on the entire postseason in my mind.

If you can hold on, hold on
To Masterson and Oki. Maybe one of the brightest spots in these disasters, these guys have done a pretty good job of keeping runs off the board. Can’t complain about this part of the pen.

I wanna shine on in the hearts of men
To Jason Bay. The other bright spot this October. Everyone misses Manny (his bat anyway) but the offensive and defensive prowess of Bay has made the Sox look a lot less wimpy then they actually are. The thought of having him for another year keeps me out of the knife drawer after these games end.

I want a meaning from the back of my broken hand
To the injured Mike Lowell. The Sox offense was really missing his bat. I know Kotsay has been nailing those line drives, but the Lowell blasts off and over the wall could have really helped this series. His surgery next week hopefully can fix his hip issue… otherwise the Sox are going to need to make some major acquisitions in the off-season.

Another head aches, another heart breaks/ I am so much older than I can take
To the captain Jason Varitek. This man looks 10,000 years old at the plate. When Cash hit that MEATBALL into the monster seats in the 3rd inning, the first thing I thought was “wow I think that would have blown Tek away.” His bat speed could be compared to molasses dripping off a table. Oh… and there is no one to really take his place in the Sox minors… awesome.

And my affection, well it comes and goes
To Jacoby Ellsbury and the pink hats that love him. He was hot for the ALDS and has become a black hole in the ALCS. So much so that he didn’t get the start tonight and Coco took the spot. The pretty boy can’t look more lost at the plate and that’s the last thing you want out of your supposed leadoff hitter.

I need direction to perfection, no no no no
To Jon Lester who had the No-No early this season, looked great against the Angels… but sucked against the Rays. I am confident he will be back on top next year… but boy does he look burnt out.

Yeah, oh don’t you put me on the backburner
For Sean Casey who has been put to the VERY bottom of the Sox bench. Is he hurt? Is he banging Francona’s wife? Did he murder someone in Istanbul and is currently serving a life sentence in a Turkish prison? We may never know, but we do know he isn’t getting the bats that his slap single style deserves.

Yeah, you got to help me out
To Mike Timlin, Javier Lopez and Manny Delcarman. SOMEBODY help me understand why these guys have jobs. They have been nothing but awful and it hurts my SOUL watching them pitch. Delcarman alone may make DC turn into a homicidal maniac. As I write this he is asking me if “this will incriminate him in court” during a trial that may or may not happen… if they find the body that is. All scary stuff.

You’re gonna bring yourself down/ Yeah, you’re gonna bring yourself down
To Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedrioa. These two have done everything in their power to drag the Sox into the post season and are kicking and flailing wildly to keep them there. Check out the body language on these two. They look like they are frustrated beyond all imagination and THEY WON last year. I think they might go on a 4 state killing spree after this thing ends.

I got soul, but I’m not a soldier
To the hollow men: David Ortiz and Josh Beckett. These two guys were the ROCKS that this team was based on… and neither of them has come through in this ALCS. Beckett looked so bad in game two that people clamed he was hurt. And I almost wish he was because at least that would explain it! I could not imagine another scenario where I WANT the ace of a staff to have a game hampering injury. As for David Ortiz… well maybe it’s the wrist injury and maybe it’s the loss of Manny’s protection… but I know Pig Papi, and THIS man is NOT Big Papi.

Over and out, last call for sin
To the Red Sox and Dice-K. Game 5 is perhaps the last game of the season for the Sox and it is up to Matsuzaka to help pick this team out of the gutter. Do I trust the big import to shut down the rolling Rays? Not really. But there is no other option now. Smoke’em if ya got ‘em.

While everyone’s lost, the battle is won
And this one is for the Tampa Bay Rays. Watch your back fellas. The Sox were in this same exact hole last season against the Indians and we know how that turned out. Now I know this isn’t the same team and they don’t have the same pop and drive… and well… talent… but the Rays better win ASAP, because you don’t want to give the Sox some life… that’s all I am saying.

If you can hold on… hold on.

Bad Moon Rising

ALCS Game 3: Boston Red Sox 1, Tampa Bay Rays 9

Due to the circumstances of the day, I ended up listening to the game rather than watching it. In retrospect, doing so was probably the best decision I made all day, sparing me from what were no doubt the shrill cackles of Chip Caray as he and his broadcasting fellows presided over one of the uglier post-season losses I've had the displeasure to witness. Instead, I slogged through the wreck with the dulcet (and by dulcet I really mean high pitched but still welcome through nostalgia) and laconic tones of Joe Castiglione, supplemented by partner of the day Dale Arnold. It was Dale who pointed out the full moon rising over Boston, giving the night - and this post - its theme.

And oh, what a theme. Jon Lester picked one of the worst days possible to have his first shaky moments in months, surrendering twin bombs to the Devil-enchanted Rays and opening up a gap that was as steady as it was insurmountable. Life disappeared from the Fenway stands, as the faithful watched in disbelief as the man who seemed near to claiming the throne of pitching god stumbled and fell. Like Icarus, it seems that Jon Lester flew too close to the sun, scorching his wings with the burning rays of immortality. Or maybe he just had one of those bad days at the office. Either way, neither he nor relief effort Paul Byrd could do enough to keep the Rays off the board.

Would that the offense could have retained their stride from Saturday and kept the Rays' staff in similar straights! Unfortunately, the full moon's curse hit both sides of the equation, pulling the fangs of Boston's hitters in the cruelest way possible: a hit almost every inning, a run scored but once. The heart of the order got on base once and struck out five times, moonstruck into awful, swing-and-a-miss silence when needed most. It wasn't a pleasant scene.

So we'll go into tomorrow with Wakefield on the mound and the Rays nammering for blood, swarming hungrily like clouds of biting insects hungry for flesh. If the Sox follow past form, they'll surrender that flesh (and another loss) one more time before they have the moment of realization, the head-alignment moment where they start playing a game at a time and don't stop winning until they've steamrollered their American League opponent and whatever motley crew the senior league offers as a token sacrifice on the way to World Series victory. I don't expect history to keep repeating itself, but if the Sox want to avoid the early exit sign now flashing in blinding neon light on the road ahead, they'll need to end this flirtation with the bad moon's curse and get back into the game.

Time To Play Host Again

Hart Brachen says Zen...I say statistics. Either way, everyone wins (except the Jays).

Since Friday's predictions went so swimmingly, let's see if I can predict the course of the series against the Indians, too:

• In 2008 (which amounts to two games, but Baseball Reference sums this up as 20 games because there were 20 batters involved. In retrospect, that's a pretty odd way to do the calculation.), the Sox offense has splits of .347/.415/.556/ against the Indians. Those two games were in Cleveland, so their relevance is a little questionable, but hey: at one point in the year (mid-April, to be precise), we could hit the Tribe's pitching. We'll just ignore the fact that one of the pitchers was Paul Byrd, mkay?
  
• At Fenway, the Red Sox offense boasts splits of .293/.374/.470, which are fine and dandy numbers, except that they include the entirety of the year when, you know, we had a full lineup and not middle-lineup guys with balky tendons and spasming muscles. In September, the tape and glue job we've got running to power us into the playoffs is hitting a much more pedestrian .263/.348/.447.
• Our leadoff hitter just woke up and realized it was September. Actually, that's not fair: as befitting a fancy-pants college boy, he did an intellectual analysis of his swing and discovered (and fixed) the holes causing his extended slump. The results are the same no matter what, though: he's got a 12 game hitting streak where he has six multi-hit games and splits of .345/.368/.545. Heating up for a repetition of the 2007 post-season extravaganza? I'm all for it.
• Of the four pitchers going this week, only the former Indian has anything approaching respectable career numbers against Cleveland: Paul Byrd has a 1.60 ERA and a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 45 innings against the Tribe, dating back to the early part of this decade. Lester and Wakefield have middling numbers, while Josh Beckett has surrendered 18 earned runs in 24.2 innings. Of course, he's also got almost 4 strikeouts for every walk and it's September, a mystical time when, like Sir Gawaine and his tripled strength at the zenith of the sun, Beckett waxes most powerful. I'd say a split with a good possibility of a series victory seems is the most likely result.
  

Paul Byrd and the Survival of the Fittest

Does Bobby Kielty know something we don't? Last August, he signs a deal with the Sox and ends up a hero in the World Series. This year, after obtaining his release from the Paw Sox in July, he resurfaces a month later by signing a deal with the AL Central-leading Twins.

Word just came out that the Indians dumped Paul Byrd on the Sox for cash or a player to be named. Byrd's 37 and having a subpar year, but as ESPN points out, he's won his last four appearances - with an average Game Score of 62.5 (which is excellent) no less - and he's got a solid 4.06 ERA in Fenway over 31 innings. In other words, I like where this idea: cheap acquisition who might do some good in the back of the rotation.

Next question: Does the Byrd acquisition mean Buchholz is finished in the majors for the season, or that the Sox think Wakefield has more shoulder damage than they've let on? I don't think so; I think this trade is part of a larger strategy. With Wakefield's injury and Clay's spate of ineffectiveness, Boston has two open rotation slots in the middle of a playoff run. Wakefield is out for two starts, but Buchholz has the opportunity to redeem himself, Byrd has the opportunity to establish himself, Colon has the chance to return to form, and one of the many minor league callups (be it Zink, Pauley, Bowden, or Hansack) has the chance to step up and make a mark in a fluid situation. It's more of a survival of the fittest type of pitching arrangement that gives Boston some options in a time of weakness, the opportunity for retreads to put up solid numbers for a future a contract hunt, and for the Sox to show off younger talents to up their trade value rather than a definitive changing of the pitching guard.

The True Psychology of the Wild Buchholz

If this report is true and Manny really wants to go to the Yankees, he knows what will happen any time he comes to Fenway. If he's happy with shooting his Boston legacy in the foot, more power to him.

I was just wondering recently what happened to Devern Hansack; now it looks like he might be taking Wakefield's rotation spot for his next two appearances. An ERA over four in the minors ain't no great shakes, but the WHIP and K/BB ratios both look pretty good. We can certainly use the rotation help right now...

Speaking of which: let's talk (some more) about Clay Buchholz. We know he's unlucky; that statistic hasn't changed since last week. What's caught my eye this week was the Globe's article/interview with the troubled pitcher, which focuses on Buchholz's bad habit of relying on his offspeed pitches to get him out of trouble. Hitters around the league know this habit; they watch and wait for the offspeed stuff like music fans counting the days until Scott Weiland's latest tumble off the wagon, and they let it go flying by. Very quickly, Clay gets into bad counts, everyone starts thinking fastball and next thing we know, he's blowing through three run leads. Clearly the situation requires a new strategy, but unlike Robin I don't think Clay's goose is cooked just yet: no one denies that his stuff works really, really well when it's in the right sequence...and we all know he knows how to sequence properly. The trick is to adjust the sequence, to get, as Buchholz put it himself, "ahead in the count a bit more often where they don't have a choice to swing at off-speed stuff." It'd be great if he could do so this year, but like Lester in 2007, I think the adjustments will take a few months to really take effect.

Game 104: The Camel's Back

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 0, New York Yankees 1

That's it. We're done. Stick a fork in us; we're sick of this crap: losing close games, bitching about the bullpen, bitching about the offense, close games ending on a strikeout looking or a double play or whatever crap our team decides to throw up that night. We're tired of having games be seasons, of having a freak out over every loss and a far too self congratulatory win. We're tired of Manny's knees, Papi's wrists, Youkilis' theatrics (that's a lie: we're never tired of Youkilis' theatrics), Varitek's terrible slump, Beckett's 9 and 7 record that's a couple lucky breaks away from being 14 and 2, Wakefield's lack of run support (now in its sixth year!), and all of the other grief that comes with the "diehard Red Sox fan" label. And we're sick of having twenty regular readers after four plus years of writing this blog.

But these are just excuses. The love is still there; the desire burns fresh in our souls like Fenway franks on a grill (they boil those franks, don't they?) on Lansdowne street. To be brutally honest: there's so much we're glossing over because we're dissecting Buchholz's poor location and Ellsbury's wild swings. So here's what we're going to do: we're not quitting, so you can untie that noose and get down off that chair: your lifeline is still here. Instead, we'll be recapping series, not games. We'll be writing posts on things like Pedroia's height, random stupid statistics, and newsworthy dramatic garbage. We're gonna have fun, god dammit. So you'll be seeing a new format round here, and we think you're going to enjoy it. In fact, to quote Robin's impression of Terry Francona: "he's a good kid. You're gonna like him. As a matter of fact, he's a good person. I like to have him on my team, I like to have him in the clubhouse, and that's somethin' special. That's not somethin' you see every day."

So here comes the new boss, same as the old boss. Again. But first, we've got a wedding to attend. Eric and Petra, congratulations (about 12 hours early). We love ya, and wish you the best. We'll be back with the new version of fun on Monday. GO SOX!!!

Game 91: Like These Games Aren’t Long and Aggravating Enough

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4, New York Yankees 5

Everyone knows Sox/Yanks games go forever. They last about as long as South American Dictatorships plus or minus a rebellion or rival cue. The last thing we need is extra innings. I have places to be (sleep) things to do (sleep) and people to see (sleep).

The Sox managed to get a three runs off Joba (thanks to a 2 RBI single from a red hot Pedroia) and one off the Yank bullpen (that I used to know by heart, but now I have no clue) but that wasn’t enough.

Wake pitched a great game, gave it up to the bullpen and they proceeded to allow the Yankees to tie it up after a Cano triple. Thank you Lopez. Typical, typical, typical. As always Wake pitched well, Sox couldn’t score enough and the bullpen craps the bed. In fact, it took a GREAT play from Pedroia (a would be game hero) to get Cano out a home on a fielders choice to preserve the tie and keep me from freaking out early.

No… the freak out would come much later in the extra frames (AFTER MANNY STRUCK OUT ON 3 PITCHES LOOKING). Papelbon, looking VERY mortal this year, gave up an 0-2 single to Cano, had the runner moved over and then blew it by pitching 100 pitches to the nobody rookie Gardner. The hit up the middle deflected off a diving Lugo and a confused Pedroia.

Run scores, game over, I lose my cool. Insert closest roommate (happened to be DC) and I yell at him for no reason. Maybe it’s the fact that the Sox are in second and slipping, maybe it was the white wine (I know, high class right?) or maybe it’s because I couldn’t yell at Papelbon… but sorry DC… you deserve better.

At least you deserve closer that can punch out a wet behind the ears 3-for-forever rookie that will get a ticker tape parade by the over reacting Yankee fans.
See… these games bring out the worst in me.

Game 81: Grumpy Old Men

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5, Arizona Diamondbacks 0

Now I’m no stat guy (that’s more of an Eric thing) but I think the combined ages of the two starting pitchers in this match up was somewhere in the range of 300 years. They have been called veterans, vintage and seasoned. But honestly Randy Johnson? HE’S OLD! Tim Wakefield? OLD! These guys are just freaking old.

Fortunately that doesn’t mean that they aren’t freaking good, too. Randy went 6 and gave up 2 earned. He looked pretty good, but the Sox had some chances they couldn’t capitalize on (read: Lugo forgot how to run bases). Wake was masterful. He had the knuckler moving and diving and made the snakes look silly. 7 innings, 2 hits 1 walk and 6K… NO RUNS! That’s a champ and a half. Sox completed the shut out with a good inning from Delcarmen, a bad partial inning from Hansen (2 walks and a single) and a big K from Papelbon (who got a save that I don’t really understand). That’s a pretty damn good outing if you scratch the Hansen meltdown. His roller coaster outings still scare the crap out of me.

As good as the pitching was, the Sox bats were pretty quiet for the majority of this game. Moss had the first two RBI’s (both made on outs) and the rest of the Boston crew seemed content on leaving men on base all night. That is, until Kevin Cash stepped up to the plate with two men on in the bottom of the 8th. KABOOM! Cash was money and blasted a shot over the monster. This homerun was not only huge on distance (in the parking lot!) but it was also huge for the man himself because it was the first he has hit since 2005! Way to go Mr. Backup catcher. Sox win the series and end the home stand on a high note. Even the geezers have to smile.