Daisuke Deals Darts in 6-1 Win Over Toronto

Most people in New England were probably watching the Celtics make Lebron James look like some below-average corporate league player in Cleveland last night and decided to skip watching Matsuzaka's start at Fenway. Or they were watching Lost.

It's too bad because the man-who-wiggles-his-bum-on-the-mound had a very live fastball last night with late movement and swing and miss action.

Matsuzaka struck out 9 Blue Jay batters and gave up 1 run on 3 hits over 7 innings with ZERO walks. You heard it correct. Not a one. He threw 106 total pitches, 71 for strikes. Additionally, he had 5 1-2-3 innings out of the 7, so an excellent and efficient outing against a team that has been hitting.

He did not nibble. He attacked the strike zone much like he did in the first few years in Boston. It is a very good sign.

Will it last? Who the hell knows with this guy, but seeing that many fastballs being thrown and watching batters miss tells me he found something in his delivery to key on. If he can keep batters off base, then he doesn't need to pitch out of the stretch--something I believe gets him out of his rhythm at least in the last few seasons.

On the offensive front, Jason Varitek caught Dice and hit a monster shot in to the upper deck of the parking lot across Lansdowne Street for a 2 run homer. Sox were able to muster 6 runs against Dana Eveland for an excellently pitched game. Ramirez and Okajima were given the ball in the last two innings, so Bard and Papelbon were able to keep their arms fresh.

Today is a day game at Fenway with Wakefield on the mound. Light rain is expected, so hopefully they get it off.

Note: Josh Beckett was checked out yesterday and the brass says he's got nothing more than back spasms. My prediction on the DL is obviously premature, but I will still not be surprised if everyone else is pitching well that they may let him rest the back and actually go on the DL for a week. When will he start next? They aren't saying right now.

[Image by Dave Delay via Flickr cc 3.0]

A Little Hot Stove Housekeeping

The Sox did some housekeeping today: they declined Gonzalez's ($6 million) and Varitek ($5 million)'s options, picked up Martinez's $7.7 million option, and changed Wakefield's perpetual club option into a two-year, $4 million deal. The business with catchers isn't surprising, but I'm a little baffled by the Gonzo choice. Presumably Boston is hedging its bets, slipping in the possibility of picking up a draft pick if Gonzalez declines to prolong his tenure and ends up somewhere else, but are things really that sure at shortstop next year that they can afford to make this bet? It's not like the shortstop free agent market is aces this off season and Jed Lowrie...well, we all know he's nothing like a sure thing, either. I guess we'll see what the Sox have planned.

As for Wakefield: does the new deal mean that Wake has a retirement date in mind? The perpetual option was fun because, quite frankly, it allowed us (or me, anyway) to live out a fantasy where Wakefield entered some sort of relativistic universe where age meant nothing and he could keep pitching forever, but clearly the injuries of this past season dealt that particular hope a crushing blow. If Wake's feeling his age enough to sign a time-limited deal - or the Sox are worried enough about his health to send him down that road - the true end can't be that far behind.

Nervous About the Playoffs

I suspect many of you are asking yourselves right now: 'Has there ever been a 95-win team that seemed more of a long shot coming into the playoffs?' Maybe it's some combination of finishing second to a 103 game-winning Yankee team, the severely lackadaisical turn the team seemed to take after losing those first two games to the Royals, and how many of Boston's positions seemed to be filled by a combination of tape, glue, and odd luck, but going into this ALDS - whenever it starts - I'm more nervous about Boston's chances against Anaheim than I've been in the past - and that's not just because the Angels have so much to prove. I mean, if you'd told me in April that Boston's solid group of options in the field and on the mound would be rife with injuries and missing major pieces by mid-season, or that Francona would be juggling a combination of Lowell, Youkilis, Varitek, and Martinez across three positions by August to keep Lowell and Varitek in playing shape for October, I would have been quite surprised.

Actually, I suppose I wouldn't have been surprised about either Lowell or Varitek: they're a combined age of 10,000 years old and have one good hip between the two of them. But the rest was a surprise.

Adding to my feelings of uncertainty is a little fun with small sample sizes: for whatever reason, it's taken 95 or more wins to get to the playoffs this decade. Boston has six 95+ win teams since the 2000 season. Two of those teams won it all; three teams met the agony of defeat, including two edge-of-the-seat ALCS losses; and one team is still in the process of writing its own history. Here's where it gets a little odd: the teams that won it all had more than 95 wins. The teams that did not had 95 wins.

See how I've already psyched myself out? I'm drawing patterns from meaningless data. I may not feel better until the Sox have exacted another sweep from the Angels.

A Closer Look at Kotchman, LaRoche and V-Mart

On the surface, the Kotchman for LaRoche deal is pretty puzzling.
But upon a little investigation, it appears that there are a few key factors at play.

One appears to be that defense is a larger piece of the puzzle. The second reason is that LaRoche and Chris Duncan (who the Sox got in the Lugo deal from St. Louis) in my estimation--were down-the-stretch, left-handed offensive insurance in case the Red Sox did not land Adrian Gonzalez or V-Mart. The third reason is contract related.

The defensive numbers are explained really well in the Around the Majors blog:

According to Total Fielding Runs, LaRoche cost his teams 2.6 runs more than an average fielder per 1,250 innings over his career. Kotchman saved his team 6 runs per 1,250 innings.

According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Kotchman has been 5.8 runs better than an average first baseman in 2009 (best in baseball). LaRoche is 3.4 runs worse than the average first baseman.

Ok, cool. For the rest of 2009, he's a bench player. He can pinch hit against righties, becomes a defensive replacement when Youk is at third and Lowell is removed or sits and on days when V-Mart catches. Sox have a ton of corner flexibility and, in my estimation, are better set up for next year without Mike Lowell.

We all know Youk is going to be the third baseman of the future, and with Lowell's hip problems, having an additional first-baseman and another lefty bat can't hurt the Red Sox. Victor Martinez did have some injuries in 2008, notably the arthroscopic surgery on his elbow, so you never know when one loose Joba fastball could send him back to the DL.

Kothcman, Duncan and down-the-road, Lars Anderson, can back up for any of these scenarios.

Contract
LaRoche is about to be a free agent at the end of this season, while Kotchman is arbitration-eligible through 2011. The nice part of that is that it gives the Red Sox brass more contract flexibility for a guy who is most likely a bench player for the remainder of this year.

He's not a free agent until 2012, so I would expect that Kotchman gives the Red Sox more trade package options in the off season with Lowell likely to be moved. Being able to throw in a 26 year old with some major league experience in a trade package is a nice to thing to have in your back pocket.

Until then, it's nice to have the defense in your pocket if something were to happen to Youk or Martinez.

More on Victor Martinez
Did I mention that this was the deal I wanted?

If his first-half offensive numbers are any indication, Martinez is a great get, especially when you factor in his ability to relieve Varitek behind the plate, and hit in the middle of the lineup from both sides of the plate.

He's an RBI guy--something the team needs right now with Bay struggling-- and the psychological distractions Big Papi now faces with the recently revealed roid debacle.

Contract-wise, the Red Sox can pick up V-Mart's option for 2010 for $7.5 million. Given his offensive history, that is relative bargain for a middle of the lineup hitter who can also catch. You have to imagine that Tek is not going to be able to catch as many games the remainder of the season, or next year, given his age, and the wear and tear.

While Adrian Gonzalez is younger with a great opposite field lefty bat, I am very content with Victor Martinez who has a strong history in the AL and has seen a whole lot more AL pitching and AL East teams than Gonzo (though don't count out the Sox going for Gonzo in the off season as the Padres are in major rebuilding mode after letting Peavy go).

And ultimately, the Red Sox have shown that they can make the deals they want to make without giving up too much. While Masterson was a good long reliver and showed signs of being a solid starter, the three B's (Bard, Bowden and Bucholz) are well-protected future stars of the game.

A Character Win

For obvious reasons, 2004 was a good year to start this blog, but it's had one problematic side effect: every year, I look for the game of the year, the game that channels the spirit of The Fight Game and demonstrates that deep down, the Sox have what it takes to gel as a team when they need to most. I know full well it's a fatuous exercise: even in 2004, the trade that put together the final pieces didn't happen for another seven days and team went a mediocre 8 and 6 until their big run starting August 10, but the point is to find the games that look big in retrospect right after they happen. I bring all of this discussion up because, despite the vastly different circumstances, yesterday's win has that feel.

Beckett and Varitek are calling it a character win, which also seems appropriate, in the way that the turnaround win against the Indians in the ALCS in 2007 was a character win: the Sox buckled down, grabbed whatever it was that made them such a good team, and won. The 2009 Orioles might be a far weaker team than the 2007 Indians and the game a fairly meaningless regular season contest, but the desire to revenge the prior day's humiliation and reestablish what seems to be the dominant order in Baltimore proved an effective understudy for the 07's unnerving possibility of losing out of the playoffs. Beckett recovered sufficiently to keep his team in the game and his team did the rest - even if they had to go to the brink a few times to do so. If the character of the 2009 Red Sox is to win when winning really matters, I like our post-season chances better and better.

Lester Locks In on Strike Zone

Jon Lester has a new career milestone: Twelve strikeouts in a game.

After two games of losses in Toronto with little offensive production, the Red Sox beat up on the Blue Jay's pitching in the rubber match on Sunday for a strong 8-2 win--keeping the Sox half a game out of first with a Yankees loss in Cleveland-- a loss by the way that should have been an official win for Carl Pavano (who is easily the comeback player of the year and another source of fun Yankee-ribbing here in NY).

Francona juggled the lineup so that the offense was stacked with righties: Pedroia hit lead-off, the 3-4-5 spots were set by Youk-Bay-Lowell, and Navajo-Jewish-Lawyer Ellsbury and his lefty bat dropped down to the eigth spot-- a strange place to seem him bat fo sho.

In the 4th inning, Pedroia slapped a 3 run homer on a line drive that barely cleared the left-field fence at the Rogers Centre. Additionally, the Sox had nice batting contributions from Lowell, Bay, and even a double by the still struggling David Ortiz.

But the dominant story for this game was Jon Lester and his pounding of the strike zone. After a tough loss last week in Minnesota where Lester pitched well , but gave up a 3 run blast to Justin Morneau--the difference on Sunday was that he was practically unhittable. Lester used the entire zone, going high with his 94 mph heater, cutting his pitches in to righties, throwing his curve up and down and on the corners, and, apparently, used a change up to help keep batters off.

From a Boston.com article on Lester and his pitches:

Jason Varitek said the pitcher threw about 20 change ups in the game,
perhaps 10 times as many as he called in Lester's last start against the Jays,
saying, "That's a totally different guy than you've seen before. He just
showed that he had a good one today, had good depth and good arm speed with
it."

Lester gave up only 3 hits, threw 72 strikes in 115 pitches, and gave up one run in the first inning on a sac fly to Vernon Wells. The only real issue here was that Lester didn't get beyond 6 innings, something you'd expect to find in a game with 12 Ks. But when you start adding up the foul balls and deep counts that the Blue Jays can take a pitcher, it's not surprising to see that line on the box score.

The key was that his fastball was zippy and hard to catch up for hitters and he painted his curve ball on the corners, especially to right-handed hitters. When you mix in the use of the change up, what you get is a very good outing. Lester lowered his ERA under 6.00 to 5.65, another very good sign that the young lefty is starting to hit his stride.

Given the lack of consistent offensive production from the Sox on the road, getting and keeping Lester going will be another key element to keeping pace in the AL East. As Joy of Sox points out: "Boston has scored only 4.2 runs per road game, more than two runs fewer than their 6.3 average at home."

Let's hope that improves.

This week: 3 games in Detroit starting Tuesday night, then back to Fenway for a 3 game series against the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (followed by next week's visit by that team from the Bronx to Beantown).

Beckett, Varitek in Strong Form Against Twinkies

Jason Varitek took one for the team today in a 3 - 1 win against the Twins.

Varitek was the dominant offensive player today with two solo home runs--the second one which was powered to the top right-center deck of the Metrodome--a long freaking way.

While those blasts were obviously a good thing in low scoring game, Tek's best move was in arguing a borderline strike on behalf of a furious Josh Beckett who had been getting that outside corner fastball to righties all day, then suddenly disappeared in the bottom of the 7th inning.

Beckett stared in while slowly walking in to the home plate umpire, turned his head to his side and cursed quite loudly. Tek, immediately recognizing the fury of his pitcher, stood up, turned to the home plate umpire Todd Tichenor and argued the inconsistency of his calls.

The pitch was outside (according the Amica pitch zone), but that's not the point... This is: Varitek was protecting the pitching staff and Beckett.

Tek knows when to stand up for his pitcher and take the heat. It was important to Beckett's future outings and the Sox pitching staff that a starter go as deep as he can and give Beckett the best possible chance for a win, especially in a week of no time off.

Tek was quickly thrown out of the game--so quick that Tito had little time to intervene. Francona had to save face and get thrown out after that so at least Tek would have some company in the visitor's clubhouse.

Beckett, for his part, was dominant today with the fastball. Here's the breakdown of Beckett who faced 27 total batters:

• 111 pitches, 69 for strikes
• 8 Ks, 4 BBs and 1 HR
• 3 Hits Allowed
• 9 groundouts, 4 fly balls
• Lowered his ERA to 4.60

While the walks were higher than he'd want, none of those free passes led to any runs. Overall, Beckett looked like he had sufficient movement on fastballs that were mostly clocked in the 94 to 95 MPH range and had a lot of swing and misses. He used his curveball effectively as needed, and had that Beckett swagger on the mound that made the likes of Joe Mauer look like a minor leaguer in the first inning.

He went right after hitters.

With Varitek's umpire-arguing sacrifice, Beckett finished the 7th with his head up and in good shape to turn the game over to Okajima then Papelbon. Both relievers gave up a hit each and struck out one batter respectively. Another save for Paps .

Sox split in Minnesota. Bring on the Blue Jays.

And You Say They're AL Champions?

One down, 161 to go. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Why don't you Rayhawk this!

I could gloat some more - and believe me, no matter how much I could end up looking the fool tomorrow, I'm enjoying the time in the sun right now - but I'll let the facts speak for themselves:

• Their team could only scrounge together three hits (one apiece for their top three hitters) and seven total base runners against three different Boston pitchers.
• Every member of our line up except Cherub Rock got a hit today and we left as many men on base as they had base runners.
  
• Their starter - who, in one of those terrible crossovers between real life and fantasy rooting, was one of my starters - barely lasted five and a third innings and was really only in control for two. He also fueled the Jason Varitek power surge that might just make us all look like fools real soon.
• Our starter had one inning where things weren't clicking and was otherwise the generally nasty Beckett we know and love. Very early, I know, but if Beckett, Lester, and Matsuzaka create a good competitive rivalry, 10 strikeout games might become a wonderful regularity.
  

RE: Jason Varitek

Robin and I on the phone, discussing the imminent return of the Captain:

Robin: "This really should have happened months ago."
Me: "Yes, it should. I blame Scott Boras."
Robin: "Yes, blame Scott Boras. He's Satan's minion on Earth."
Me: "It's true. Every time a player signs with Scott Boras, God brutally murders a kitten."

Welcome back to the fold, Varitek. We're glad you got over your four-month hissy fit and returned to where you belonged.

Catching Up With Catchers

I bet Varitek is feeling pretty foolish about that big market talk from late last year right now. I also wonder whether or not Boras finally over-playing his hand - what with there being no other public suitors for Varitek's services besides the Red Sox - on such a high-profile player might bring some equalization to the oh-so-ugly Boras factor.

You know: it occurs to me I could probably write pages on why we - who, as fans of a team where prices are driven by demand, have no stake in player salaries - hate on Boras for being so good at his job. Rationalizations by fans of smaller-market teams seem appropriate, as Boras's ability to pull the highest prices for his stars guarantees that many teams won't be able to compete, but the Sox do not fall into this category, and my (and I have no doubt, yours as well) dislike of Boras and his reputation is probably nothing more than irrational musings on abstract measures of "fairness." Point of fact, there is no fairness, only relative ability to play the game and the jealousy of those left in the dust.

Like I said: pages. However, I prefer to contemplate the relative merits of Saltalamacchia, Montero and Teagarden. Assuming a reasonable trade, who would you rather see behind the plate at Fenway? The Herald calls Taylor Teagarden the most well-rounded of the three, but if Miguel Montero is as much of a pitch calling wiz as the article says, I suspect I'd rather have him instead. The 2005 Red Sox and 2008 Yankees both proved how useless a killer offense can be without a strong pitching staff, and we've heard time and time again about how important a strong backstop can be when it comes to managing that staff to victory. With a stable full of young arms, wouldn't a defensive catcher be more of an asset?

Catching Problems? Bring in Josh Bard, Of Course!

Imagine you're the Red Sox (fun, right?). You have, as Robin pointed out in strongly-worded commentary bordering on hysteria, no catchers on your 25 man roster: your captain is on the market awaiting a multi-year offer that may never come and your backup - who, I should note, is one of the few catchers out there with the ability to catch the knuckleball pitcher who you still have on staff - hit the bricks for the shelter of your rivals because you made the odd decision to non-tender after his best (if admittedly not superb) season yet. What do you do?

Try and sign Josh Bard, apparently. You know, the guy the Sox sent to San Diego two seasons ago to get back Mirabelli because they realized not everyone can catch Wakefield. Um, duh? To Theo's credit, he's since admited that trade was a mistake, and given how that season turned out - and the lingering questions about the team's construction - who can blame him, but I'm starting to wonder where the strategy is in all of this mess. First, the Sox fail to come to an agreement with Varitek, which wasn't much of a surprise: things are very different in the personal and professional lives of Jason Varitek, and he wasn't going to give the Sox the same satisfaction of an easy deal like he did four years ago. Then, the aforementioned non-tender for Cash, the resultant lack of catchers...and Boston's decision to try and sign Bard, who has bad ankles and a checkered past in Boston that automatically rules out his playing one every five with Wakefield, all while insisting that they're still going after Varitek. Anyone else confused?

I could see Boston's using a Bard signing as an opportunity for both catchers to compete for the starting position - trading away the loser at the earliest opportunity - but that would only make sense if Varitek had agreed to play in a Red Sox uniform next year. Even then, unless Bard has some sort of resurgence, it's not like either catcher is particularly attractive trade bait, and if Bard performs well, why would Boston want to get rid of him except to fill a hole they should have already plugged by the start of the season? I feel like the Sox are trying to buy insurance for a car they may or may not own in the next four months, but maybe I'm missing something?

Filling the Slugging Gap

David Ortiz misses Manny. Or Manny's bat, anyway. Sort of. He won't come right out and say it, because he's far too polite, but he's happy to hint about it obliquely. It's pretty clear that he - like Bill Lee - believes the only thing standing between Boston and another ring this year was Manny's ability to hit the long ball. They both might have a point: do a straight-up substitution of Manny for Bay in the ALCS and the difference is, quite frankly, embarrassing. We all deluded ourselves into thinking we wouldn't miss Manny because we had Bay, but those numbers give that delusion the lie: Bay, while good, is no replacement for Manny's greatness.

In an effort to lessen that gap, Ortiz wants the Sox to sign Teixeira. Pursuing the ex-Angels first baseman comes with a few logistical problems - does Boston have the desire to spend the money, what would happen to Mike Lowell - but first, is Teixeira (or any other big bat) an acquisition the Sox need to make? Teixeira has certainly been a more consistently successful hitter than Lowell, with an OPS+ that hasn't fallen below 126 since his first year. He's also much more of a power hitter, fitting Ortiz's desire for protective, Manny-style bat, while Lowell's isolated power numbers, even with all of those doubles, have never returned to their Marlins-era peak. But Teixeira isn't Manny: as an example, until this year, Teixeira never had really stellar plate discipline, and his K/BB ratio only climbed after coming to the Angels. Bringing him to Boston, particularly at the expense of another player, seems like Theo's attempt to replace Pedro with the gaggle of cheaper, less effective pitchers that plagued Boston in 2005. Besides, a order heart of Youkilis, Ortiz, Drew, Bay, and Lowell (although not necessarily in that order) sounds pretty deadly already...

Your Move, Mr. Epstein

We all know that Scott Boras is a.) Satan and b.) a very good agent (although whether or not he's better for his clients or himself may be up for debate), so we should be used to opening shots like this one:

Agent Scott Boras told reporters that New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada’s four-year, $52.4 million deal, which was agreed to last offseason, will serve as a benchmark for any team looking to land Varitek.

“It’s probably representative, age-wise,” Boras said, “and it’s also representative of what a player on a winning team (is worth). You’re not going to have many catchers who have the performance levels and a 60 percent winning percentage on a franchise and have won two world championships and caught four no-hitters. The idea of it is that there just aren’t many in the marketplace that can lead a club like Jason Varitek and that’s going to be his value.”

But still, hearing Boras make value arguments is like getting a Novocaine shot: you know it'll hurt, but you've forgotten exactly how much until it happens. Seeing Boras dance around the bad and spin the good hurts, doesn't it? Almost makes you want to see the Sox offer more than two years...until you remember that enormous risk outweighs emotional connection.

A Few Late-in-the-Day Thoughts

• Holy crap. Explains Beckett's rapid decline and Lowrie's subpar numbers in one fell swoop. It's starting to look like every game the Sox won in the playoffs this year was a minor miracle. Also: I get cranky enough when I have to sit in an office chair with a sore oblique. I can't imagine trying to pitch with a torn one.
  
• Scott Boras agrees with me. I suspect that statement is like saying that after Barbarossa, Stalin agreed with Churchill that Hitler needed to be stopped (and yes, that makes Scott Boras Stalin to my Churchill): we've got vastly different agendas but the same general goal. Actually, having anywhere close to the same goal as Scott Boras makes me feel filthy.
• Tito is going to have back surgery. I'll let you make the connection between back pain and poor judgment.

And We're Back

Or I am, anyway. Robin's still hiding under a rock somewhere, slugging whiskey and singing sad songs about bases-loaded ground outs. I needed a break from baseball for a few days, but I'm otherwise whole in mind and body. Disappointed, yes and happy to root against the Rays, but more than cognizant of how much of a miracle it was to even fight back to Game 7 with three shaky starting pitchers and no starting third baseman.

Of course, I felt a little differently that night. I think the end of Game 7 was the only time all playoffs I had to turn off the sound on the TV, because I was getting so worked up about the slurping noises coming from the broadcast booth about David Price that I was moments away from throwing a chair through a window. And those windows have bars on them, so it would have been a doubly-wasted effort. Here's the thing about David Price, which Caray, Martinez, and Darling seem to have missed: he's Craig Hansen three years ago. So he's struck out Yankees at Yankee Stadium...and he's gotten a post-season win and a post-season save before accomplishing the same achievements in the regular season...so what? The Yankees weren't particularly good in September and more importantly, no one's seen this guy pitch more than a couple of innings. Sure, he could be the next pitching Jesus, but he could also flame out as quickly as Hansen and find himself pitching for a AAAA team in two seasons.

Besides, he's only got two pitches and his fastball has enough outside arc on it to double as a sail.

Anyway, after I turned off the noise from the box, I realized that even if the announcers seem to have contracted a huge case of the idiots, the Rays probably have more than enough sense not to overexpose their hot new prospect, and more importantly that they were winning/had won because the Sox couldn't string together enough hits to score two runs with the bases loaded. We were defeated by our own inability to keep the momentum running - and perhaps our manager's loyalty to one Jason Varitek.

What of Varitek? I've talked with a few people about this issue and I have two thoughts:

• The only reason I can think of why Francona did not choose to pinch hit for Varitek was his concern over long-term employee relations. The Captain had already made (albeit minimal) signs of his displeasure about exiting for a pinch hitter public, which suggests there was much more discussion going on behind the scenes. Since it's still not clear whether or not Varitek will be coming back to Boston next season, it would be best not to burn any bridges. It's not a particularly good theory, but I'm running with it because the alternative revolves around Francona pulling a Scoscia (yes, I went there) and forgetting how to manage in the playoffs.
• Speaking of Varitek coming back, what do we think? This year's free agent catcher class features a whole host of catchers a year or two over thirty, but some of them have club options and none of them are particularly outstanding hitters...and hitting seems like it would be the only balance we could have against losing Varitek and his sway over the pitching staff. I'm thinking no more than a two year deal with a permanent spot in the nine hole would be in order, while Boston does its best to acquire or train a solid backup in the minors.
  

No Deliverance

ALCS Game 6: Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4, Tampa Bay Rays 2

Followed my love from coast to coast/Chased by demons, chasing ghosts/And when I wound up facing the sea/Heard the waves crashing, laughing at me
Tonight was the prove it game: the game where the Rays could shut the door, kill the momentum, make Boston's fourth straight setup to an ALCS comeback (since '86 and going strong!) a dream and nothing more. The Rays had "Big Game James" Shields, unlucky - and unlikely - victim of Game 1, raring back to send his team to their first World Series berth and cap the penultimate chapter of a truly unlikely season. The Sox had Beckett; Beckett the martyr to the unknown drag, Beckett the now uncertain post-season hero, his record of kick awesome postseason starts tarnished by this year's October activities. Boston had the momentum, but Tampa Bay had the odds.

I waded into that icy black/I saw there was no, no coming back/No deliverance
At first, it seemed as if the very fates were conspiring against Boston: a problem in Atlanta kept the TBS off the air just long enough for B. J. Upton to go big long style on a Beckett fastball, putting the already uncertain denizens of Professor Thom's (including yours truly) into a tizzy of desperate anticipation: what sort of Beckett would we be getting tonight?

Ducked my head under, started to drift/Let the tide take me and down I went/I saw great wonders shunned from above/I saw blind monsters twisted in love/No deliverance
Fortunately, the Sox seemed to have (finally) anticipated Beckett's potential malaise on the mound: his fastball speed dropped a good five miles an hour after Upton's home run and the man with the fireball arm suddenly became a junkballer, throwing curveballs and cutters and low-90s fastballs with just enough bite on them to keep the Rays low on the board through five. It wasn't the prettiest performance and it was certainly far from the dominance that brought Beckett to Boston, but it the job done.

And when I saw her, bathed in light/A host of angels knelt at her side
Meanwhile, "Big Game James" was anything but: four pitches into the second, Youkilis answered Upton's home run with a deep fly of his own, sending the crowd - a mix of diehards, pink hats, and douchebags of various stripes (so help me God, if Professor Thom's falls victim to its own success and I have to watch another game with such a group of poseurs, standing around blocking the view on the screens while they chat amongst themselves, I will be forced to firebomb. There's nothing worse in sports than a bandwagon fan with no substance. I'm pretty sure I was getting dirty looks from one woman in front of me for clapping, for chrissake. You don't like it? Don't go to an effing sports bar!) into extacies and setting up a push that connected firmly to another run scoring drive by Pedroia, Ortiz, and Youkilis in the third. As Shield's pitch count mounted, the Sox started to circle in the water, never quite taking the big bad bite but doing enough damage to keep all of Tampa Bay's relief corps on their toes. Even the Rays' second home run, miraculously knocked in by Jason "Tampa Bay Rays MVP" Bartlett and his magical ability to lean into a pitch, Derek Jeter style, weren't enough to slow Boston down for even a half inning: Bartlett's solo shot quickly found an answer in a two run screamer by El Capitan in the top of the sixth. Okajima and Masterson shut the door; Papelbon delivered electricity in ten pitches and sent the Ray running into the night.

She said "You have forsaken all you believe/Crossed earth and oceans to be with me/I'll be your lover, I'll be your wrack/And now you're never coming back."/No deliverance
So, here we stand:once again contemplating the world a mere step away from the World Series. One good game; one solid Lester outing separates us from sweet comeback number four and a showdown with Philadelphia. Boston has the momentum, has time and experience on its side, has the capacity to make this thing one and done and take the pennant. No deliverance for Tampa Bay, guys. No deliverance.

We Can Rebuild Him...We Have the Technology

Our new catching acquisition has been battling back problems all year. Somehow, this fact does not inspire confidence.

Part of me wanted to write a Six Million Dollar Man spoof in honor of Buchholz's return to Portland, but since I've never watched the show, I kept the reference to the title. You'll thank me later. Instead, some thoughts on what I've seen 'round the Internets about Clay's downswing:

• A few days ago - before the fateful final start against Baltimore - I spotted an article (that I now can't find, of course) about Buchholz finding a hole in his mechanics during his side sessions with John Farrell. As a professional fixer of sorts, I like hearing rational reasons like "correctible mechanical problems" and since Buchholz gets a lot of good will for pitching that no-hitter, I want him to succeed. As a result, I develop an almost irrational faith in the potential of the fix: the coaches know the problem, so they'll fix it. Clearly, not so much. These fixes take time.
• The Herald quoted Kevin Cash and referenced Jason Varitek in two separate articles on Buchholz published today; both catchers spoke about the importance of pitcher confidence. The intimation of both articles is that Clay lacks the confidence in his pitches; Francona even cited an incident against Baltimore where Buchholz shook off a fastball because he felt he wouldn't succeed. As Jonah pointed out over at Soxlosophy, the pitcher is meat: the catcher should be making the calls that determine the course of the game. If the pitcher doesn't have the confidence to throw the pitches his play caller demands, it's time to step back, to the lower-pressure world of the minors if necessary.
• In the article that brings up Varitek, Tony Massarotti voices our worst fear: that Buchholz is a flame out, a reincarnation of Kevin Morton, whose stellar debut with the Sox in July, 1991 (five hit, one run complete game against the Tigers) marked the high water mark of his 16 game major league career. But I think the comparison is inaccurate. As some of the partisans at SoSH (which incidentally has a good discussion of the whole confidence issue) continue to point out, Buchholz's BABIP continues to be about 60 points higher than average, which makes him one heck of an unlucky pitcher. Morton's BABIP was three points below average, which - if nothing else - means that his numbers were a reflection of his abilities: he really wasn't that good a pitcher.
  

Now Broadcasting Live from My Dreams

Super ESPN chick Erin Andrews and super NESN babe Heidi Watney together at last. In the words of the venerable sage and philosopher Garth Algar: SHWING!

But then again... maybe this is what's causing Varitek's marital woes.

Laughing at Trade Rumors

Ah, the trade deadline; a time when teams stop, reassess their position, and make the decision to upgrade their arsenal or find the best way to screw their competitors with a fire sale. With Manny's name flying around the rumor wire like a kitten chasing a laser light we're looking at a particularly vibrant crop of rumors this year, but there are a couple of other areas (*cough* bullpen *cough*) that deserve some attention, too. Here's my thoughts on the latest rundown:

• Manny for Miggy: Wasn't this trade a bad idea two years ago? Why would it be any better now, when Tejada's not only having a subpar season, but has in fact become a demonstrably poorer hitter in the two years since 2006 and is only likely to get worse (Mitchell Report, anyone?)? Revising DC's metaphor from the time, trading Ramirez for Tejada would be like getting 75 cents on the dollar. And I'm being generous. Good thing both sides have shot this rumor down.
  
• Manny for Andruw Jones: So laughable I'm not even going to comment on it. I will, however, mock the gentleman who suggested (in the comments section) that the Sox trade Manny for Jones, Chin-Lung Hu, and Andy LaRoche. I understand that LaRoche is supposed to be a bit of the second coming, but since neither he nor Hu have been hitting very well (to put it mildly) and Jones is a bit of a joke and the Sox would need to replace Manny now to have a chance of getting to the playoffs this season, I'm not sure why that deal is anything close to a good idea. Good job, buddy. We're all glad you're not in the GM's chair.
• Manny to the Mets (for prospects): Same general problem as Manny for LaRoche and Hu, but worse because the prospects aren't named, preventing me from judging their relative value. Besides, the Sox aren't rebuilding, they're trying to win another ring. Everyone does understand why trading for prospects is a bad idea during a playoff run, right?
• Ron Mahay / Doug Brocail: Mahay was pretty good with the Sox a decade ago, though his K:BB ratio and WHIP did start to get pretty ugly in 1998. He's also phenomenally streaky, but importing a replacement part with an ERA+ of 140 percent above average for 2008 definitely has my attention. Brocail is far less enticing: his best years were in the late 90s, he gives up a run for every three men he allows on base, and he's 41, which kinda makes him like a Mike Timlin the Sox would have to trade players to get. On the plus side, he does have almost a strikeout an inning...I still can't see the value, though. It's also unclear who Boston would lose to gain the services of either one of these two pitchers.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Salty hasn't really proven himself to be much of a hitter in his first two seasons, but he's also playing backup backstop to Gerald Laird and his Bat of Power, so he hasn't really had much of a chance to shine. Coming to Boston might give him the chance to improve his eye and train to be Varitek's eventual successor, but can he catch a knuckleball?
  

Game 104: The Camel's Back

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 0, New York Yankees 1

That's it. We're done. Stick a fork in us; we're sick of this crap: losing close games, bitching about the bullpen, bitching about the offense, close games ending on a strikeout looking or a double play or whatever crap our team decides to throw up that night. We're tired of having games be seasons, of having a freak out over every loss and a far too self congratulatory win. We're tired of Manny's knees, Papi's wrists, Youkilis' theatrics (that's a lie: we're never tired of Youkilis' theatrics), Varitek's terrible slump, Beckett's 9 and 7 record that's a couple lucky breaks away from being 14 and 2, Wakefield's lack of run support (now in its sixth year!), and all of the other grief that comes with the "diehard Red Sox fan" label. And we're sick of having twenty regular readers after four plus years of writing this blog.

But these are just excuses. The love is still there; the desire burns fresh in our souls like Fenway franks on a grill (they boil those franks, don't they?) on Lansdowne street. To be brutally honest: there's so much we're glossing over because we're dissecting Buchholz's poor location and Ellsbury's wild swings. So here's what we're going to do: we're not quitting, so you can untie that noose and get down off that chair: your lifeline is still here. Instead, we'll be recapping series, not games. We'll be writing posts on things like Pedroia's height, random stupid statistics, and newsworthy dramatic garbage. We're gonna have fun, god dammit. So you'll be seeing a new format round here, and we think you're going to enjoy it. In fact, to quote Robin's impression of Terry Francona: "he's a good kid. You're gonna like him. As a matter of fact, he's a good person. I like to have him on my team, I like to have him in the clubhouse, and that's somethin' special. That's not somethin' you see every day."

So here comes the new boss, same as the old boss. Again. But first, we've got a wedding to attend. Eric and Petra, congratulations (about 12 hours early). We love ya, and wish you the best. We'll be back with the new version of fun on Monday. GO SOX!!!