The AL East: Ego and Super Ego, Revenge of the Bad Picks

So once again, Eric and I are gonna go head to head and discuss the AL East. His opinions are the ones based on numbers and graphs and junk… mine (Robin) are in italics and are correct.

After my AL West preview generated so much positive energy and because I revel in the idea of creating as much controversy as possible (you’re a doof and think the A’s are gonna do better than the Mariners), I've once again decided to use Baseball Prospectus's depth charts as the basis for my AL East preview. Don't like it? (Nope!) The comments await your written scorn. (Why wait? I’ll skewer you here!) Let's get started:

Fifth Place: Baltimore Orioles

Don't look now, but the Orioles are still terrible. Fortunately (or unfortunately - as a fan I like more competition, but as a Sox fan I'd like it to be somewhere outside of the AL East), they're taking steps to fix the problem: trading Tejada and Bedard for 10 players almost guarantees some sort of payback down the road, and the O's built in some insurance, too: after Brian Roberts (who's also heavily rumored to be heading somewhere National), off-season acquisition Adam Jones is the team's best hitter, while Luke Scott and George Sherrill will do a serviceable job filling holes in the outfield and in the bullpen. But all of these small changes won't make the Orioles winners any time in 2008: when your best starter is Daniel Cabrera and his projected WHIP of 1.47, forecasting a baseball-worst 66 wins and 96 losses in the tough-as-nails AL East doesn't seem like too much of a stretch.

Hmmmm, he started strong. I agree that the Orange Bird boys have “jack and squat” and even those guys aren’t hitting better than .210 this year. I think Baltimore is going to be in a “rebuilding year” for the next decade. Trading your best big name hitter (Tajeda) and best young pitcher (Bedard) in the off-season is a great way to stick it to the fans with the Cal Ripkin tattoos. I expect the Royals to laugh at this crew as they pass them in win totals.

Fourth Place: Toronto Blue Jays

No doubt you're now confused: you're probably wondering how the Jays could fall to fourth place when they made more improvements to the potent (if injury-prone) 2007 edition of their club. While it's true that David Eckstein and Scott Rolen might be improvements over Troy Glaus (maybe in terms of grit?), the Blue Jays still lack the offensive punch to score runs, and their predicted OPS and SLG numbers paint a very clear picture of placement in the run-happy East. Combined with the expected 4+ ERAs of fourth-fifths of their starting corps, suddenly a fourth place finish for the Jays doesn't seem so far fetched.

Here we go. The only thing you are right about here is your first sentence: I AM confused. How is this team going to slip into second to last place? They have an ace in Halladay, they are getting B.J. Ryan back from injury and this could be the year that Burnett puts together a healthy season. I expect these guys to finish second with hope for the future. I can’t believe this is your 4th place team… who did you pick to win the NCAA tourney? Portland State?

Third Place: Tampa Bay Rays

In the decade since Major League Baseball put a baseball team in the middle of a body of water, the hapless Rays have never finished above fourth place, and have only avoided the cellar once, in 2004. So what are they doing in third place in 2008? New year, new name, new ballgame, baby. Seriously though: after years of ridiculously effective farm development with nothing to show for it, things are finally starting to fall into place for the Rays. Carlos Pena will have a breakout year batting cleanup, and supported by Crawford and Upton will anchor a lineup strong enough to generate the type of offense that would garner them second place in a several other divisions. On the rotation side of things, James Shields and Matt Garza will both put up very respectable numbers, and Scott Kazmir will have the kind of dominating year that will almost guarantee he'll be in pinstripes (or maybe red socks?) in a few years. Unfortunately for Tampa, the Rays still haven't solved their bullpen issues; Troy Percival isn't the kind of closer you need to anchor a relief staff. If they address that problem, they could very well push their way to second place, especially in a weak year.

For the love of all that is holy… it’s the DAMN RAYS! Yeah they got their name changed from a killer fish to a sunbeam, but they still play in an oil drum in Tampa and they still are gonna be a joke. Kazmir is starting the year HURT and even YOU pointed out that Percival the Horrible is going to attempt to close games for them. Like most rational people, I don’t see them doing this well… but I think I am going to get a bit irrational when I read your next pick.

Second Place: Boston Red Sox/First Place: New York Yankees

Normally I wouldn't combine two finishing spots, but this year's edition of the biggest rivalry in sports promises to be the best we've seen in a few years. Off the field, Hank Steinbrenner has taken up the Boss' fallen torch, wading into the fray with a host of inflammatory comments picked up by a gleeful media. Is Steinbrenner a blow hard? Sure, but the Sox/Yanks rivalry has been missing someone with that kind of outspoken attitude (to put it euphemistically) for a while, and I'm glad it's back. It was getting tough to hate the Yankees for a while, and we really can't have that. In the clubhouses, both Boston and New York are relying heavily on a group of young players to fill vital roles, creating an element of uncertainty. Will Pedroia flop in his sophomore year (the magic eight ball says no, but don't look for him to be quite as big of a powerhouse this year, either)? Will Ellsbury and Joba Chamberlain live up to the incredible promise they showed last year? How about Buchholz and Lester, or Hughes and Kennedy? Are they rotation ready?On the plus side, all of these side plots feed into two teams who should keep their race as close and interesting as a fan could ever hope. Unfortunately for us Sox fans, though the offensive numbers for Boston and New York are nearly equal, and though the Sox will have the better group of starters and the better closer by Value Over Replacement Player, they're still expected to give up more runs than the Yankees. In the end, those additional runs will spell six fewer wins, relegating Boston to second and a fight with Detroit for the Wild Card.

I don’t even know where to begin. I think I’ll start with a quote from Billy Madison:

“…what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever
heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to
anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is
now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have
mercy on your soul.”

Whew. Now that I’ve got that off my chest, we can continue. The Yankees are done. Call me a homer, call me a hater, call me whatever… but the Yankees have had their time in the spotlight and now it’s time to move on. Someone tell this New Boss (same as the old boss) that his words are hollow and fall on deaf ears. They are a third place team with JUST over 80 wins. The vets are too old, the rookies are too green and the depth is just not there. They have 4 guys that are better off being DHs (Giambi, Matsui, Damon, and Abreu) and that leaves Melky Cabrera and Shelley Duncan in the outfield… not exactly Mystique and Aura. They have a young unproven pitching staff in a division that is hyper competitive and a bullpen… that beyond Joba… is a disaster. But sure, GIVE them first place…

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are the Champions of the World. They are the incumbent and deserve to be treated with some damn respect. It’s idiotic to think that they will be fighting for the Wild Card with the Tigers… because BOTH of these teams will be winning their divisions. The Sox have a deep bullpen, grade A starters and hitting that will be even better than last years Championship team. Ortiz is healthy now, Manny is in great shape and this Jacoby guy you may have heard about is going to be a phenomenon. Yes the injury to Schilling and the start in Japan is worrisome early on (even though they seem to be rock stars in Japan), but this is a group of guys who have proven that they can win even in the roughest situations. I don’t want any flack from the stat heads that I respect… but you can stick your VORP up your ass. The Sox with 96 wins… win the division. Now beating the Tigers in the playoffs? That’s another story…

A Fox Among the Chickens

Remember Ego and Super Ego, the feature where Robin and I simulate the thought processes of a typical Red Sox fan in word form? Well, the announced return of the Papal-Bon to the role of closer snapped something inside both of us, so Ego and Super Ego is back. My comments in normal text, Robin's in italics. Enjoy...

It's official: Jonathan Papelbon will be the closer for 2007, ending weeks of speculation about the future owner of the job, the health of Papelbon's shoulder, the foolishness of the Sox for moving him out of the position, the need for a closer, etc., etc., etc. While I'm glad the wait is over, because I was getting really sick of every sportscaster feeling the need to add their opinion to the mix, that doesn't mean I don't have some mixed feelings about seeing Paps back in the pen. Being the logical, organized type, I've laid out the pros and cons of making this transition.

Being the pissed off psycho type, I am gonna break down his lame assumptions and tell you what the real deal is with this freaking travesty of a no-win, zero sum, awful choice this team just made. Honestly… I’m a little excited.

Pros:

• Proven track record: the seven runs over 70 innings, the 75 strikeouts and 13 walks, the sheer badassity of a closer who didn't give up his first run until halfway through 2006 all speak for themselves.
  
  Oh come on! Everyone knows Paps is the second coming. That’s the freaking point. He comes in = the game ends.
  
  
• Stronger arm: after last year's shoulder scare, Papelbon has gone through a boatload of strengthening exercises and, according to his quote in the Herald, has talked to a "million doctors" who all seem to agree that his new exercise regimen will give him the arm strength he needs to keep a live arm all season. He now feels he can perform in either role, as the team needs him.
  
  Stronger than what? He looked fine until the end of last season when he collapsed like someone whose name rhymes “Crap Lament” last season. And what’s this magic strength training? Tai-Bo? Or has he been hitting the medicine balls so hard that anything larger than a cantaloupe gives him fits?
  
  
• A much better option: was I worried about Julian Tavarez or Joel Pineiro coming in to shoot down the opposition Rivera-style in close contests? You bet your ass I was. We know Paps can get the job done and get it done well and that counts for a lot of peace of mind.
  
  No crap. Last time I checked everyone was getting rocked this spring. And you usually can’t get piece of mind from a guy who played Tony Montana in the Sox clubhouse version of Scarface.
  

Cons:

• Arm health: what if the doctors are wrong or the exercise regimen doesn't work and Papelbon's arm falls off, as I keep fearing it will? I admit my irrational fears don't go up very well against a "million doctors," but I won't feel any better if I'm right and Paps can't pitch anymore. Plus, Papelbon is a warrior: he'll probably keep pitching until his arm does fall off because he's so committed (although Curt Schilling seems to feel otherwise).
  
  Plus, this is idiotic. Severe arm damage is something you’d notice in his performance. If he ends up sucking cause he’s hurt, we are back at square screwed.
  
  
• Pitching limitations: according to the quotes in the Herald, there are big limitations on how often and how long Papelbon can pitch - no multiple inning outings and no pitching four or five nights in a row. I trust Francona not to blow this restriction, but do I trust the rest of the bullpen to step up and keep the runs off the board on those nights when Papelbon can't pitch? It's a big risk.
  
  This I really don’t understand. If we are risking this guy by making him the closer, then why not run him into the ground and get all the wins we can get out of him. What? If he’s gonna get hurt anyway, we might as well bleed him dry.
  
  
• Replacement effectiveness: with Papelbon back in the 'pen, Julian Tavarez will take his spot in the rotation. He did well enough in the role at the end of last year to be a fifth starter and he definitely wants to be there, but we're talking about Julian Tavarez, the man most likely in 2006 to suffer a mound meltdown - after Rudy Seanez, of course - taking the reins in 2007 at the back of the rotation. Ignoring the loss in quality that lowers the rotation from godlike to pretty good, Tavarez is a scary unknown factor as a pitcher in general and a starter in particular.
  Lord, Tavarez again? Can you imagine every 5 days dealing with “Mask and Chainsaw” night at Fenway? Could somebody go check the white blood cell count on Jon Lester?
  

Basically, it's a tie - it's nice to know the man closing out games is as reliable as they come, but Papelbon's return to the pen opens up a whole new set of potential problems to worry about as the season opens. I'm excited, but more than a little freaked out about what could happen.

It’s brutal that a “tie” means that we take a potential 15-18 game winner and turn him into a 35+ save closer who has a chance to burnout in August. But there really aren’t any other good options are there.