Philip Jenkins points the iron rule of sociology that in any face off between a decaying authoritarian regime and a populist insurrection, it's the religious minorities that get it in the neck. In this case, the Syrian unrest may destroy the last vestiges of ancient Eastern Christian churches:
Ever since the wave of popular movements started sweeping the Middle East, Western media have rarely found much good to say about the authoritarian regimes under attack. Few observers deny that the last generation or so of Arab rulers were indeed greedy despots, and it seems desirable for Western powers to intervene as forcefully as they can on behalf of what are commonly billed as pro-democracy movements. The arguments against intervention are obvious enough, most obviously that it is much easier to begin a military intervention than to end it, while we rarely have much idea about the political character of the supposed democrats we are trying to aid. But in one case above all, namely Syria, debates over intervention have missed one overwhelming argument, which is the likely religious catastrophe that would follow the overthrow of the admittedly dictatorial government. Any Western intervention in Syria would likely supply the death warrant for the ancient Christianity of the Middle East. For anyone concerned about Christians worldwide -- even if you believe firmly in democracy and human rights -- it's hard to avoid this prayer: Lord, bring democracy to Syria, but not in my lifetime.
And:
Christian numbers are still harder to determine. Over the past century century, Syria regularly served as the last refuge for Christian communities who had been largely destroyed elsewhere in the Middle East -- for Christians fleeing massacre in Turkey after 1915, or in Iraq after 2003. A standard figure for the number of Syrian Christians is ten percent, or around two million believers, but that omits an uncertain number of thinly disguised crypto-believers, not to mention the recent arrivals from the wreck of Saddam's Iraq. A fifteen percent Christian minority is quite probable.And:
It's one thing to catalogue the religious oddities of a particular country, but we also have to know that that diversity is the absolute foundation of Syrian politics. Basically, a large majority of Syria -- officially, some 74 percent -- is Sunni Muslim, and the nation's politics for almost fifty years has been devoted to ensuring that this majority does not gain power. Ever since 1963, Syria has been ruled by variations of the Ba'ath Party, an Arab ultra-nationalist movement originally co-founded by the Syrian Christian intellectual, Michel Aflaq. Because of its devotion to absolute secularism, the Ba'ath cause appeals strongly to religious minorities who fear the overwhelming demographic power of Sunni Islam. Christians, Alawites and others all have a potent vested interest in drawing all Arab peoples, regardless of faith, into a shared passion for secular modernity and pan-Arab patriotism, in sharp contrast to Islamism.
The West might like to see the Ba'ath regime crushed as thoroughly as its counterpart in Iraq, but as on that earlier occasion, the religious consequences of intervention could be horrible. Before planning to intervene in Syria, Western nations had better start printing several million immigration visas to hand out to refugees seeking political asylum, and demanding protection from religious persecution.
There is often a correlation between authoritarian state and survival of religious minorities. One reason for this is that religious minorities may provide a pool of "safe "talent for the authoritarian ruler. Members of religious minorities can't hope to supplant the ruler because that wouldn't be acceptable to the vast majority of the population or the regime, and talented religious minority can't hope to find a better outlet for their talent. This seems to be equivalent to the medieval practice of appointing commoners to high state office because commoners couldn't hope to obtain the allegiance of the nobility, which often felt threatened by such "upstarts."
Of couse, there were the occasions where commoners did pull of a coup.
On the other hand, democracy may not be conducive to the survival of religious minorities. Democracy often imports enthusiasm, and enthusiasm, particularly an enthusiastic chauvinism sparked by a resentment of the majority having been ruled by religious minorities, is a dangerous mix. During the Middle Ages, a tried and true method for placating a mob was to throw the commoner-advisor "under the bus."