To err is human, but to really screw things up royally, it takes an expert.

This is an interesting article on the author of a book that points out how often the experts are just plain wrong:

To read the factoids David Freedman rattles off in his book Wrong is terrifying. He begins by writing that about two-thirds of the findings published in the top medical journals are refuted within a few years. It gets worse. As much as 90% of physicians' medical knowledge has been found to be substantially or completely wrong. In fact, there is a 1 in 12 chance that a doctor's diagnosis will be so wrong that it causes the patient significant harm. And it's not just medicine. Economists have found that all studies published in economics journals are likely to be wrong. Professionally prepared tax returns are more likely to contain significant errors than self-prepared returns. Half of all newspaper articles contain at least one factual error. So why, then, do we blindly follow experts? Freedman has an idea, which he elaborates on in his book Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us - and How to Know When Not to Trust Them. Freedman talked to TIME about why we believe experts, how to find good advice and why we should trust him - even though he's kind of an expert.

And I like this one, which I shall dub the "Bart Ehrman Effect."

You found some cases of experts who willingly discarded data that didn't fit with the conclusion they were after?


That is a huge understatement - it is almost routine. Now, let me point out that it's not always nefarious. Scientists and experts have to do a certain amount of data sorting. Some data turns out to be garbage, some just isn't useful, or it just doesn't help you answer the question, so scientists always have to edit their data, and that's O.K. The problem is, how can we make sure that when they're editing the data, they're not simply manipulating the data in the way that helps them end up with the data they want? Unfortunately, there really aren't any safeguards in place against that. Scientists and other experts are human beings, they want to advance their careers, they have families to support, and what do you know, they tend to get the answers they chase.

Check it out.

Via Mark Shea.