Mubarak/Obama Speeches on Egypt.

Obama according to NRO:

At a speech today at Marquette University, Pres. Barack Obama opened the talk about economic growth with a few brief remarks about Egypt. They are paraphrased below:

We are following today’s events in Egypt very closely. We’ll have more to say as this plays out. What is absolutely clear is that we are witnessing history unfold. It’s a moment of transformation that is taking place because the people of Egypt are asking for change… They’ve turned out in extraordinary numbers… but it’s young people who are at the forefront. So going forward we want those young people to know that America will do everything se can to support an orderly transition to democracy in Egypt. As we watch what’s taking place, we’re also reminded that we live in an interconnected globe…

Mubarak:

I am telling you, as a president of the country, I do not find it a mistake to listen to you and to respond to your requests and demands. But it is shameful and I will not, nor will ever accept to hear foreign dictations, whatever the source might be or whatever the context it came in.


My sons and daughters, the youth of Egypt, dear fellow citizens, I have announced, without any doubt, that I will not run for the next presidential elections and have said that I have given the country and served the country for 60 years in public service, during wartime and during peacetime.

I have told you my determination that I will hold steadfast to continue to take on my responsibility to protect the constitution and the rights of people until power is transferred to whomever the people choose during September, the upcoming September, and free and impartial elections that will be safeguarded by the freedom – the call for freedom.

This is the oath that I have taken before God and before you. And I will protect it and keep it until we reach – we take Egypt to the safety and security.

And:

Let me say again that I have lived for this nation. I have kept my responsibilities. And Egypt will remain, above all, and above any individuals — Egypt will remain until I deliver and surrender its — it to others. This will be the land of my living and my death. It will remain a dear land to me. I will not leave it nor depart it until I am buried in the ground. Its people will remain in my heart, and it will remain — its people will remain upright and lifting up their heads.

A couple of observations:

1.  Why is American foreign intelligence so crummy?  Obama clearly believed that Mubarak was going to resign.  Did Mubarak dupe him?  Has Obama lost so much credibility with Mubarak that the aren't telling him their plans?  Don't we have analysts who are supposed to have contacts and can read the tea leaves better than this?

2.  Mubarak is plainly telling Obama to get lost with his statement about "it is shameful and I will not, nor will ever accept to hear foreign dictations, whatever the source might be or whatever the context it came in."

3.  So much for American influence in Egypt.

4.  This is a bad sign for American influence generally.  As the Guardian observes, "Obama wrongfooted by Mubarak as White House tries to keep upBy refusing to leave office the Egyptian president has exposed America's inability to decisively influence events."

Obama has been putting pressure on Mubarak since last week to stand down straight away, but Mubarak, in a televised address tonight, said he would not bow to international pressure, a direct snub to the US president.


Mubarak's response provides a graphic illustration of America's slow decline from its status as the world's sole superpower to a position where it is unable to decisively influence events in Egypt, in spite of that country being one of the biggest recipients of US military aid.

If our military aid can't buy us an Egyptian President, what good is it?

4.  Mubarak's line about  "This will be the land of my living and my death" reminded of the Byzantine Empress Theodora's statement in a similar situation, when her husband, the Emperor Justinian, and his court were about to "bug out" of Constantinople in the face of the Nika Riots of 532 AD.  According to Procopius, Theodora put back bone into the men by saying:

This is no occasion to keep to the old rule that a woman must not speak in the council. Those who are most concerned have most right to dictate the course of action. Now every man must die once, and for a king death is better than dethronement and exile. May I never see the day when my purple robe is stripped from me, and when I am no more called Lady and Mistress ! If you wish, O Emperor, to save your life, nothing is easier : there are your ships and the sea. But I agree with the old saying that " the purple is the noblest winding-sheet.'

A "winding sheet" was the sheet that corpses were buried in.  Purple was the color reserved for emperors. The meaning was it was better to die an emperor than flee.

This demonstration of resolve meant that Justinian had to stay in Constantinople and put down the riot.  He did this by putting the problem into the hands of General Belisarius, who mousetrapped the rioters in the Hippodrome, where he slaughtered 35,000 rioters.

If Mubarak is playing the role of Justinian, things could get very bloody.