New NBC poll shows that Democrats have a 10 point lead going into 2018, while Donald Trump's numbers have ticked up four points. Wait, what?

Courtesy of NBC News:  

Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage over Republicans in congressional preference for the 2018 midterm elections, even as President Donald Trump's job approval rating has ticked up, the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds. 

Fifty percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 40 percent want a GOP-controlled one. 

That double-digit lead — typically a sign of strong Democratic performance for the upcoming election — is up from the party's 6-point edge in January's NBC/WSJ poll, which was 49 percent to 43 percent, though the change is within the poll's margin of error.

That falls in line with other polling that shows the Democrats with a substantial lead going into the 2018 election.

But then there is this: 

Meanwhile, the NBC/WSJ polls finds that Trump's approval rating stands at 43 percent among all Americans — up four points from January. 

Fifty-three percent of adults say they disapprove of the president’s job, down from 57 percent two months ago. 

The improvement for Trump comes from Republican respondents (who went from 78 percent approve in January to 84 percent this month), white men (52 percent to 59 percent) and independents (33 percent to 45 percent).

Man am I embarrassed to be a white man some days.

I am trying to work it out in my head exactly what Trump has done in the last month or so that could have improved his image even by four points.

Could it be his blatant attacks on our Justice Department?

The constant turnover in his White House?

Or was it the fact that he has definitely been outed as banging a porn star right after his wife gave birth to his last child, and his attempts to keep her quiet?

Yeah, I simply don't get it.

But who cares? Because once we get enough Democrats into office we can shut his ass down hard!

Here is some good news to start our Friday morning.

Americans with college degrees are favoring Democrats 16 points more then they did in 2014. Nation as a whole is leaning 10 points more blue. https://t.co/r4Fa9feXzdhttps://t.co/r4Fa9feXzd pic.twitter.com/IQdsF1SODT

— G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️ (@gelliottmorris) December 27, 2017

Things are really looking good for Democrats if they don't once again somehow manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again.

Donald Trump gets a little defensive about poll numbers, and there is good reason for that.

The Fake News refuses to talk about how Big and how Strong our BASE is. They show Fake Polls just like they report Fake News. Despite only negative reporting, we are doing well - nobody is going to beat us. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 24, 2017

The Tax Cut/Reform Bill, including Massive Alaska Drilling and the Repeal of the highly unpopular Individual Mandate, brought it all together as to what an incredible year we had. Don’t let the Fake News convince you otherwise...and our insider Polls are strong!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 24, 2017

Kind of odd that Trump would feel the need to tweet that out on Christmas Eve.

Well that is until you see this.

Trump’s 35% approval is his worst mark yet in a new CNN poll.

Trump's approval rating continues to be the lowest for any modern president at this point, per CNN. All 1st-time presidents back to Eisenhower have approvals of 49% or higher except Trump https://t.co/uSdCDdHdSY https://t.co/KkiWJ8J3xo

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) December 24, 2017

I am guessing this "internal polling" is largely based on asking Trump's sycophants if he is doing a great job.

Just your daily reminder that this is the worst presidency in modern American history.

This is a pretty stunning chart. pic.twitter.com/ud7ksgL4VW

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 5, 2017

I think it was just last week that a troll tried to convince us that a poll showing Trump's approval numbers were in the toilet were slanted by partisanship.

Of course the problem with that is that essentially ALL polls now show Trump to be significantly behind virtually every other president in the history of our country.

Kind of hard to dismiss ALL of the polling. 

Polls show Donald Trump getting very close to 60% disapproval.

That's fake news.

Courtesy of CBS News: 

Nearly three-in-five Americans disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, according to new survey data. 

Fifty-seven percent of Americans in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Wednesday said they disapprove of the president's job performance, while only 38 percent said they approve. 

A Gallup poll released Tuesday reported similar findings: 57 percent of Americans gave Mr. Trump the thumbs-down, while 37 percent gave him the thumbs-up.

The president's numbers were slightly better -- but still underwater -- in an Economist/YouGov survey released Wednesday. In that poll, Mr. Trump's disapproval rating stood at 53 percent, while his approval rating was 41 percent. 

For comparison's sake, the latest CBS News poll, released last month, found that 57 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president, while 36 percent approve.

I'm still stunned that there are 36% of more of Americans who actually approve of this shitgibbon.

Of course it could be worse, and if you look toward Europe it is worse.

Much worse:

pewresearch: Trump’s ratings in Western Europe are similar to those for Bush in 2008 https://t.co/0uCsZRPZt0 pic.twitter.com/6GkfHzzMj1

— #Polls 4 USA (@Polls_4_USA) July 5, 2017

Damn I think the Black Plague has higher approval numbers than that.

The good news, belief in Creationism is at an all time low. The bad news, there are still 38% of Americans who believe in that superstitious nonsense.

Courtesy of Gallup: 

The percentage of U.S. adults who believe that God created humans in their present form at some time within the last 10,000 years or so -- the strict creationist view -- has reached a new low. Thirty-eight percent of U.S. adults now accept creationism, while 57% believe in some form of evolution -- either God-guided or not -- saying man developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life.

This is the first time since 1982 -- when Gallup began asking this question using this wording -- that belief in God's direct creation of man has not been the outright most-common response. Overall, roughly three-quarters of Americans believe God was involved in man's creation -- whether that be the creationist view based on the Bible or the view that God guided the evolutionary process, outlined by scientist Charles Darwin and others. Since 1982, agreement with the "secular" viewpoint, meaning humans evolved from lower life forms without any divine intervention, has doubled.

It is my habit to celebrate every one of these successes, as Americans slowly, almost imperceptibly, move toward enlightenment. 

I just wish they would hurry up.

I am not getting any younger, and my dream of witnessing a world without religion seems to fade further and further from a possible reality every day.

Oh well, everybody needs a dream to cling to, and this is mine.

In case you were still wondering how the polls could have been so wrong about the outcome of the election.

The case that the Comey letter—or the media's handling of the letter—cost Clinton the election is painfully obvious. https://t.co/xDGspbTQLu

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017

Clinton experienced a sharp, 3-point drop in her polls after the Comey letter came out. Then on 11/8, she lost FL, WI, PA & MI by <=1 point.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017

It's a fairly open-and-shut case. But the media's election post-mortems have mostly ignored it because it implicates the media's judgement. pic.twitter.com/cBLifP9WLu

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 22, 2017

These were the lead news stories (per @memeorandum) over the final 19 days of last year's campaign. Anything stand out? pic.twitter.com/St7a0tBG3L

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 24, 2017

The polls and the pundits didn't get it wrong, they were just unprepared for the FBI to alter the trajectory of the election.

This is why I can never give Comey that pass. 

Aha!

Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2012

Iran, Libya, Syria, any one of them will do. After all a distraction's a distraction.

I swear folks you simply CANNOT make this stuff up.

Keith Olbermann lists the 50 craziest things done by Donald Trump since his inauguration.

I swear even five of these would be enough to destroy the career of any other politician.

Donald Trump's approval ratings dropping like a stone.

Courtesy of TPM: 

President Donald Trump’s net approval rating dropped by eight points in his first week in the Oval Office, according to daily polls tracked by Gallup. On Sunday Jan. 22, two days after being sworn in, 45 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance and 45 percent approved. 

By Friday Jan. 27, the percentage who disapproved rose to 50 and percentage who approved dipped to 42.

If Trump keeps on gong the way he is he might just bottom out at zero before spring. 

Personally I think we should redo the election now that the American people have a true sense of who Donald Trump REALLY is.

I guarantee the largest turnout in American history.

Donald Trump's inaugural polling shows him with the lowest numbers in the history of the poll.

Courtesy of Gallup:

President Donald Trump is the first elected president in Gallup's polling history to receive an initial job approval rating below the majority level. He starts his term in office with 45% of Americans approving of the way he is handling his new job, 45% disapproving and 10% yet to form an opinion. Trump now holds the record for the lowest initial job approval rating as well as the highest initial disapproval rating in Gallup surveys dating back to Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Trump's inaugural approval rating is not much lower than the 51% recorded for George H.W. Bush in 1989 as well as for Ronald Reagan in 1981, but his disapproval rating is substantially higher than theirs. Whereas 45% disapprove of Trump, only 6% disapproved of the elder Bush and 13% disapproved of Reagan.

By contrast President Obama polled at 68% approval at the beginning of HIS presidency. 

Low inaugural TV ratings, small inaugural crowds, and now low polling numbers.

I swear the only huge numbers associated with Trump's inauguration were the record breaking crowds who came out to protest it the next day. 

Justice Department Inspector General to investigate how FBI handled Clinton e-mail case.

Courtesy of NBC News:  

The Justice Department Inspector General says he will review how the FBI and Justice Department handled certain aspects of the Hillary Clinton email investigation. 

The probe by Michael E. Horowitz will include a review of FBI Director James Comey's news conference in July and his two letters to lawmakers in late October and early November. 

"In response to requests from numerous Chairmen and Ranking Members of Congressional oversight committees, various organizations, and members of the public, the Office of the Inspector General will initiate a review of allegations regarding certain actions by the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation in advance of the 2016 election," the Justice Department said in a statement.

Just 11 days before the 2016 general election, Comey notified Congress that the FBI was reviewing a new batch of emails that appeared to be pertinent to their investigation. The emails, discovered during a probe, were found on a laptop that former New York congressman Anthony Weiner allegedly used to send lewd text messages and pictures to an underage girl.

Well this is good news, which hopefully will see Comey punished for his sabotage.

Just yesterday Vox offered up an article that offers proof Comey's letter altered the outcome of his election: 

Many people — most notably Trump and other Republicans — have scoffed at the claim that the letter changed the outcome of the election, suggesting that it’s a convenient excuse for a weak candidate who made some questionable strategic decisions. 

But the Comey effect was real, it was big, and it probably cost Clinton the election. 

Vox then offers up four pieces of evidence to support their contention.

The first is state polls:

To be sure, the gap with Clinton was narrowing before Comey dropped his bombshell, but the pace also picked up significantly after that. For example, averaging across 14 battleground states, the race moved 1.1 points in Trump’s direction in the week following the third and final debate — but Trump gained an additional 2.4 points after October 28.

National polls:

Sort of self explanatory.

Voter choices AFTER the Comey letter:

And media coverage of the two candidates:

Coverage of Clinton’s emails eclipsed her policy proposals and ended up being the only story about Clinton that stuck with voters. While 79 percent of registered voters had heard “a lot” about Clinton’s emails, only 23 percent heard “a lot” about Trump’s housing discrimination, 27 percent heard “a lot” about the Donald J. Trump Foundation’s illegal political contribution to the Florida attorney general, and, surprisingly, only 59 percent had heard a “a lot” about the Hollywood Access tape. 

I think that this is more than enough evidence in a court of law to prove malfeasance on the part of the FBI director.

I just wonder what the appropriate punishment is for a law enforcement employee helping the Russian government destroy one candidate's chances of winning in order to help their opponent?

More concerning the impact of the James Comey letter on the outcome of the election.

Courtesy of Mother Jones:  

Sam Wang has crunched the data from polls released in October to judge the effect of FBI Director James Comey's letter on the election: 

From opinion data alone, it is possible to estimate when a change occurred. This can test between alternative explanations, which include not only the Comey letter (October 28th) but preceding events such as the announcement of a hike in Affordable Care Act premiums (October 24th). 

I calculated a day-by-day margin using polling data from the Huffington Post…After the Affordable Care Act premium hike announcement, opinion did not move for days…However, the big change does coincide well with the release of the Comey letter. Opinion swung toward Trump by 4 percentage points, and about half of this was a lasting change. 

Hillary Clinton lost 4 points when the letter was released. She eventually gained back some of that, but it looks like 2 points were permanent. This jibes well with Nate Silver's estimate that the Comey letter cost Clinton 2 points.

Gee look, that polls WEREN'T wrong after all.

The Right is working hard to spin election loss as being the fault of the Clinton campaign for not working harder to reach the people in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but the facts are that Hillary did reach out to working class people.

However it is hard to win over the American people when the director of the FBI is insinuating that you are about to be indicted on criminal charges at any moment. 

Hillary Clinton did not lose this election, it was stolen from her.

President Obama's second term approval ratings now higher than Ronald Reagan's second term approval ratings. Take that GOP!

Courtesy of WaPo: 

Pollster.com's Charles Franklin was a little ahead of the curve Sunday morning when he pointed out that President Obama's approval rating right now is among the highest Election-Day approval ratings in recent history.

Why is that ahead of the curve? Because on Monday, fewer than 24 hours before polls open across the United States, Gallup reported that Obama's daily approval rating had hit 56 percent. That's a figure that he'd been around at the end of October, but had otherwise only hit or exceeded on seven days since August 2009. 

Franklin tracked recent survey results by party to evaluate Obama's approval, finding that, at 52.1 percent on average, he's viewed more positively now than Ronald Reagan was at the end of his second term, but not as positively as was Bill Clinton at the end of his.

That's right President Obama, the man that Donald Trump claims is THE worst President ever, is polling at a whopping 56%. And that puts him just barely behind our LAST Democratic President, Bill Clinton.

Remember THIS is the administration that Donald Trump wants to save us from seeing go to a "third term," this is the swamp he wants to "drain." and this is the wrong direction that he wants to steer this country away from.

In short Donald Trump wants to toss us a lifeline and drag us from our comforting, relaxing, soothing bubble bath.

Which brings me to one of my many pet peeves.

During this campaign season I have seen a parade of half witted Trump surrogates saying that the people do not trust the government, and that the government is broken, and that Americans want to "take back this country," and it seems that NOT ONE of the journalists interviewing them ever takes the time to correct that BS.

Yes it is true that many Americans believe that the government is "broken."

But they are NOT talking about the Executive branch of government, they are talking about the Legislative branch of government.

In other words they are talking about the Senate and the House of Representatives, both of which have essentially ground to a halt. (They cannot even do something simple like confirm a Supreme Court nominee.)

And which party has the majority in both of those places?

That's right, the Republicans.

So essentially the Republican presidential campaign has been running on the promise to fix the branch of government THEIR party broke, by replacing the person in charge of the branch of government that is actually working well.

How in the fuck does that work?

No if the voters really want to "fix" the government, "drain" the swamp, and "take back" their country they want to vote every one of those obstructionist GOP assholes out of office and replace them with idealistic, hopeful Democrats who know how government is supposed to work and will make sure that it does.

And THAT should have been the central message of the Hillary Clinton campaign in my opinion.

"Government is only broken when you don't know how to make it work. Vote for Hillary Clinton and a Democratic Senate and House, and we will show you how to get it running like a clock."

Do you think that is too long for a bumper sticker?

Sarah Palin stumping for Trump in Michigan appears on Fox News to remind people why she cannot get a news show of her own. Update!

"Polls are only for strippers and cross country skiers."

And that may be one of the more intelligent things that fell out of Palin's maw during this interview.

I swore off Palin transcripts, but in a nutshell the bewigged one used her patented high pitched shriek to terrorize the local cat population and to get Trump's message out to only creatures who can pick up her frequency, bats and dolphins.

Fortunately I speak dolphin so I can report that Palin is also firmly in the anti-reality bubble that Trump and his surrogates occupy these days.

Palin more or less explains why she is so slow to read the writing on the wall by explaining to O'Reilly that she was convinced that she and McCain would win in 2008 as well. And just like 2008 Palin is dismissing the polls as being inaccurate and saying that she does not "put a whole lot of faith in polls."

Remember how well THAT worked out for her in 2008?

At one point O'Reilly actually asks Palin if she thinks that Hillary is corrupt, and she says "Yes, I think she is."

And that is why I cannot keep an irony meter working for more than a few days around here.

People have commented that Palin appears to have put on weight. Maybe but she still comes off just as stoned to the gills and incoherent as always.

If you did not get enough Palin in this video there is also this one of Palin talking to a tiny group of Trump supporters from the back of a pick up truck.

Classy.

(Anybody recognize that coat?)

There is also a local news report about this here,  here, and here.

Man if Palin is in Wasilla on Wednesday morning I certainly hope that her family hides all of the canned goods, because if not it is going to be hailing creamed corn and baked beans all over in that house.

Update: Apparently Palin was not entirely welcome in Michigan as her presence started a bar fight:

Shortly after Palin’s arrival at the Detroit bar, two men began to yell obscenities and anti-Trump rhetoric before they were removed by the owner. According to an eyewitness, a woman threw beer on the bar owner while he was walking the men out of the bar. 

“I saw two guys being dispersed while Palin was talking (to the crowd), and they were being put out by what I understand to be the bar’s owner,” the eyewitness said. “And then this woman who was sitting at the bar, who was drinking a beer, splashed it on the owner as he was escorting the men out. This caused him to react in a violent way — he threw them all out.” 

Once outside, the two men continued to cause a disturbance, knocking on the windows and yelling Palin’s name, prompting her to respond directly. 

“I wish you had the guts to come in here and say that to my face,” she said to the protesters through an open window. 

The direct engagement between Palin and the protesters led several patrons to leave the establishment and confront the protesters. One man at the event, according to the eyewitness, used pepper spray.

So once the men were safely removed from the bar Palin started to yell at them from a window in order to incite more violence?

Gee, no wonder she supports a man like Donald Trump.

Just keeping hope alive.

Alaska polling has a bad track record ... but a variety of partisan and nonpartisan polls show a close race there: https://t.co/Iy9uFFKV3q

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 30, 2016

Somebody mentioned in a previous post that if Nate Silver was not calling the race in Alaska close, that we should not get too excited.

Well now he is, so "Whoopee!"

Yes I know what you are going to say, but please don't ruin this for me.

After all there will be time enough on November 9th to come to terms with reality.

New polls taken after Friday show that James Comey's letter has had little effect on the voters.

And look at that, I'm still standing. 

Courtesy of Politico:

Hillary Clinton has a slim three-point lead over Donald Trump one week before Election Day, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted entirely after FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of new emails that might pertain to the former secretary of state's private server. 

Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 43 percent in a two-way race, and 42 percent to 39 percent in a four-way race, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 5 percent. 

The poll was conducted using an online panel of 1,772 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday, beginning one day after Comey's announcement. The poll carries a margin or error of 2 percentage points. 

In a separate poll conducted before Comey's disclosure, Clinton was leading by three points in the four-way race, and five points in the two-way race. Put simply, there is not yet evidence that the revelations have drastically altered the contours of the election.

I heard this same information on MSNBC today and am glad to see it confirmed.

Also read on another online news site that for most of the voters their decision was made long ago and that all of the news which has come out recently, concerning both candidates, really has not moved the needle much at all.

And don't forget that 22 million people have already voted, so any new "scandals" between now and November 8th will have absolutely NO impact on those votes.

As of this post Nate Silver suggests that Hillary still has a 75.4% of winning and Trump has a 24.6 % chance, so very little change there.

However if you are like me you are probably feeling more than a little nauseous after riding his roller coaster for almost a year now.

I think that our friend John Oliver summed all of this up best.

"We have burrowed through, not just rock bottom,  but through the core of the earth. And we've come bursting out the other side, startling kangaroos, and we're currently hurtling toward outer space where there is no up, down, light, or darkness, just an endless void in which death comes as sweet, sweet relief. Please let this thing be over soon."

The numbers fluctuate back and forth to some degree but this is essentially where things have stood ever since the last debate.

 Take solace in the numbers, but then go out in vote.

Unless you already have of course, in which case just prepare for the Trump supporter freakout that is sure to come on November 9th.

Let's take a peek at Twitter to see how the Trump meltdown is progressing shall we? Update!

Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the Trump . We are going to WIN!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 24, 2016

"The THE Trump?" Good lord he stutters when he types too.

By the way those "phony polls" he is referencing are all of the most accurate polls that cannot be skewed by Trump's crazed supporters voting multiple times to give him the lead.

Why has nobody asked Kaine about the horrible views emanated on WikiLeaks about Catholics? Media in the tank for Clinton but Trump will win!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 24, 2016

We are winning and the press is refusing to report it. Don't let them fool you- get out and vote! #DrainTheSwamp on November 8th!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 24, 2016

Really? He's winning?

Yeah he's wining so much that CBS is now calling deep red Texas a "battleground" state.

 And he is winning so much that even Karl Rove is now saying that he has no hope of winning.

Are we sure that Trump is not Charlie Sheen in disguise?

Update: This is Trump today complaining that the system is rigged and the bad pollsters are only polling Democrats and that is why it looks like he is losing.

.@realDonaldTrump: "The system is corrupt and rigged and broken and we're going to fix it." pic.twitter.com/rbA6oCdurv

— POLITICO (@politico) October 24, 2016

So much cognitive dissonance, so little time.

Update 2: Here is Trump trying to enrage the crowd against the media covering the event.

.@realDonaldTrump on the media: "They might even be more crooked than Hillary. Without the media, Hillary Clinton would be nothing." pic.twitter.com/7LG1ehQpyG

— POLITICO (@politico) October 24, 2016

That shit is very dangerous and has forced law enforcement to protect reporters from some of Trump's supporters in the past.

I hope that if any journalist is ever injured at one of these events that the news agency they work for sues the crap out of Donald Trump and that the police pursue criminal charges against him for inciting violence.

President Obama's poll numbers now the highest of his second term.

Courtesy of CNN:

President Barack Obama's approval rating stands at 55% in a new CNN/ORC poll, the highest mark of his second term, and matching his best at any time since his first year in office. 

The new rating outpaces his previous second-term high -- reached just after a Democratic convention that extolled the successes of his presidency -- by one point, and hits a level he's reached just twice since the end of his first year in office: In January 2013 just before his second inauguration and in January 2011. 

The new poll continues a streak in which Obama's approval rating has been at 50% or higher in CNN/ORC polls since February, a seven month run that is his longest since 2009. And taken together, Obama's approval ratings in 2016 average 51% so far in CNN/ORC polls, his best mark since that first year in office.

He is a perfect 10 in our book. #TeamUSA 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/kxyB3mx6RP

— The First Lady (@FLOTUS) September 29, 2016

I have said before that the more people see of Donald Trump the more they appreciate President Obama.

And of course only helps Hillary Clinton's chances of winning this election.

Which right now look pretty damn good.